Competitive Balance in the Premier League

‘Among us, no one shall be the best; but if someone is, then let him be elsewhere and among others. Why should one be the best? Because then the contest would come to an end and the eternal life for the Hellenic state would be endangered’

This quote shows that competitive balance has been crucial for 2,500 years. Made following the ostracism of Hermodorus, it describes how ancient Ephresians exiled any competitor in a contest who they felt was too dominant, preserving interest in the contest.

The issue of competitive balance has often been brought up with regards to the Premier League. The money involved, particularly through participation in the Champions League, has been accused of making the Premier League relatively uncompetitive, and as a result, slightly boring at times. The same teams tend to dominate at the top of the league and the same teams struggle season after season to hang onto their treasured place in the division.

Fans always hope their team can progress up the league - uncertainty as to
results is the driving interest in sport

So, has the competitive nature of the Premier League declined since its inception due to the growing gap between itself and the Championship? Has it declined within the league as the Champions League clubs move ahead into their own virtual mini-league?

First of all, let us clarify what we mean by competitive balance. If there is considerable uncertainty concerning the outcome of a sporting contest or league competition, we would say there is high competitive balance. It is a relative measure of sporting abilities across teams in competitions.

There are two types of competitive balance. Static competitive balance looks at within-season competitive nature of a league. It focuses on whether sides are evenly matched, leading to closely-fought tournaments or whether there are large differences, leading to runaway leaders and sides adrift at the bottom. Dynamic competitive balance looks at competition over longer periods, focussing on whether sides consistently occupy the same positions in the league.

So, how can we measure competitive balance? We shall borrow two methods from economics – the Null-Scully value and the Spearman Rank Coefficient.

The Noll-Scully measure compares the standard deviations of winning percentages in the league with the standard deviations we would expect in a perfectly competitive league, where every side has a 50% chance of defeating any other side. We then derive the Noll-Scully value using the formula:

where σ(wp)^ideal is equal to 0.5/√N. σ(wp)_it represents the standard deviation of winning percentages within league i during period t, and N represents the number of games. The standard deviation of an ideal season takes this form because the standard deviation of a random selection of an individual team’s wins follows a binomial distribution (N,p) where N is the number of games played and p is the probability of winning. In a perfectly competitive league, p would be 0.5; hence we get the expression for the standard deviation in a perfectly competitive league.

In a perfectly competitive league, the Noll-Scully value would be one, since the two standard deviations would be equal. This value must always be greater than one, since the standard deviation in any competition cannot be lower than that in a perfectly competitive league. The closer to one, the more competitive the league.

The measure for dynamic competitive balance is the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. This looks at correlation between finishing positions of clubs in consecutive seasons. In a perfectly competitive league, there should be no correlation between where clubs finish in one season and where they finish in the following season. As the league gets less competitive, the Spearman value moves further from zero, either positively or negatively. In many cases, teams that do well in one season do better the following season, so we would expect it to become more positive.

To calculate the Spearman coefficient, we must rank the teams. Fortunately, the structure of league competitions does this. The team that finishes top has a ranking of 1; the second-placed team has 2, and so on. We then use the formula:

where d_i is the difference in rank for team i between the current season and the previous season, and n is the number of teams. In a perfectly uncompetitive league, every side will finish in the same position as the previous year, d will equal zero, and therefore the Spearman’s coefficient will be 1. As it becomes more competitive, this moves toward zero.

Obviously, the Premier League has a relegation system, where the bottom three clubs are demoted to the Championship, while three teams are promoted into the league to take their place. To deal with this across seasons, the team that wins the Championship will be treated as equal to the team that finished 18th in the Premier League, the team that finished 2nd would correspond to the Premier League's 19th placed team, while the Playoff winner will correspond to the bottom team in the Premier League.

Now that we have established our two measures, let us look at how they have changed over the past 22 years since the Premier League began. The first chart below shows the Noll-Scully values:

As I stated earlier, a perfectly competitive league would have a Noll-Scully value of 0.5. Clearly the Premier League is far from a perfectly competitive league, but every league in every sport in the world has certainly levels of imbalance.

However, we can see a steady upward trend in the Noll-Scully value since the inception of the Premier League in 1992. The first season saw a N-S value of 1.04, but ever since then, it has followed a relatively constant increase with the exception of the 2010/11 season, which saw a surprisingly low value.

So, the 2013/14 season that recently finished saw a N-S value of 1.99, but how does this compare with other competitions? In the National Hockey League (NHL) in America, the average N-S value during the 2000s was 1.73. For the National Football League (NFL), we find a value of 1.57, while the National Basketball Association (NBA), the value is just below 3.0.

We can conclude that the English Premier League has a greater static competitive balance than the NBA, but less than both the NHL and NFL. The concern might be the trend in the static competitive balance though.

How does the Premier League perform on dynamic competitive balance? The chart below shows the Spearman rank coefficient:

As stated earlier, a perfectly dynamically competitive league would have a Spearman value of 0. A perfectly uncompetitive league where every team always finishes in the same position would have a value of 1.

We can see that the Spearman coefficient dramatically increased in the years immediately following the inception of the Premier League. The drop following the 1999/2000 season marks the point where the number of English teams in the Champions League increased from two to three, then four. There was slightly more competition around this period as additional teams gained the opportunity to benefit from the riches of the Champions League, but once the Big 4 teams were established, the Spearman coefficient returned to its upward trajectory.

It is too soon to draw any clear conclusions, but the drop in the Spearman coefficient this season might be linked to the increased television money in the Premier League increasing competitive balance within the league as other teams can afford transfer fees to bring in new stars, but it could just as easily be dominated by the effect of Manchester United dropping from 1st to 7th following the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson and Liverpool's unexpected title challenge. The coming seasons should help us to understand this more.

Again, how does this compare with other competitions? In the NHL, the Spearman value tends to fluctuate between 0.4 and 0.6, in the NFL, it is between 0.2 and 0.3 and in the NBA, it is around 0.6.

The NFL is one of the most competitive competitions in global sport

Thus, the Premier League has incredibly high levels of dynamic competitive imbalance. Teams tend to finish in the same position from season-to-season with very little real change. There may be some variety in terms of how far apart all the teams in the division are, but in terms of where they actually finish, there is very little difference.

This roughly corresponds with what we expected to find. The top teams are financially far superior to the rest of the league, meaning that they rarely drop out of the top grouping. Even within that top group, there is a fairly strong pecking order. For the majority of recent seasons, Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea have battled for the title. Arsenal have finished 4th, while Tottenham, Liverpool and Everton battle it out for the 5th-7th placings.

The growing gap financially between the Premier League and the Championship means that teams often struggle when they come into the league, while the same group of teams tend to either just stay up or finish in a comfortable mid-table position come the end of the season.

This is where the Premier League may struggle in the future. The steady rise in the Noll-Scully value shows that the gap between the top and bottom of the league is growing almost year-on-year, which combined with the Spearman coefficient, means that the league is becoming more and more hierarchical. If this continues, people will start to lose interest in the league. Fans always maintain that hope that their club can break into the higher levels over time. If this hope is diminished, the interest in watching the sport might begin to decline.

Michel Platini's FFP regulations will have a negative impact on competitive balance

Is there hope that things might change? Sadly, it would appear not. The new UEFA Financial Fair Play regulations will act to reduce competitive balance further by artificially imposing different budgets on teams. The top teams already have greater revenues, so they can spend more money. Smaller clubs will no longer be able to speculate to accumulate.

Without more considered interference from either the Premier League or from UEFA, it is tough to see how these trends can be halted or even reversed. The financial aspect of football means that the top clubs get richer and richer at a far higher rate than the rest of the league. Thus, it is likely that competitive balance will continue to fall over the coming years.

Wimbledon Girls Preview

I wrote a preview for the French Open juniors that seemed to go down well, so I thought I would have another go for Wimbledon. Whoever wins the title will be looking at the success of the past two champions - Genie Bouchard and Belinda Bencic - and hoping to achieve the same in the coming years.

Belinda Bencic won the Wimbledon junior title in 2013

Quarter 1

Ivana Jorovic is the top seed for the girl's draw at Wimbledon, but to be honest, it is difficult to make a real argument for her being the most likely champion. Despite being the top ranked junior, she has never played a match on grass, either at senior or junior level, so to suggest that she stands a real chance of winning is tough. She has plenty of quality, which can get you a long way at this level, but there look to be players that are far more experienced on grass in this section that will cause her real problems. Her first match is against the American, Kaitlyn McCarthy, who is a former finalist of the International Grass Court Championships in the USA last summer. She should provide a real test of Jorovic's grass court credentials in the first round. Their second round opponent will be either Paula Badosa Gibert and Luisa Stefani, who are both are solid young players, but are inexperienced on grass.

Katherine Sebov is a Canadian qualifier, but do not let that fool you. She is a very good grass court player as she demonstrated in a run to the quarter-final in Roehampton, eventually losing to Kristina Schmiedlova. She was a break up in the deciding set of that match and could easily have beaten the Slovakian, who lost in the final. However, she comes up against another talented grass court player in Britain's Gabriella Taylor. Taylor scored the biggest win of her career in routing Sofia Arvidsson in qualifying for Wimbledon, although lost to Tereza Smitkova, but given her run in Wimbledon thus far, that is no disgrace.

Katherine Sebov had a good run in Roehampton

The other two players in the top section - Tami Grende and Anna Bondar - are both yet to record their first wins on grass. Indeed, Anna Bondar is yet to play a match on grass. It is anyone's guess who might win this, but either player is likely to struggle against Sebov or Taylor in the second round.

The next section of the draw contains some very decent players. Marketa Vondrousova is just 14-years old, but was a revelation at the French Open, reaching the semi-final. She had a solid warm-up for Wimbledon with a couple of wins in Roehampton before losing in three sets to Britain's Katie Boulter. She plays Freya Christie, who gained plenty of grass court experience this week in Roehampton, reaching the third round of the singles and the semi-final of the doubles. She was unlucky in drawing Bencic and Townsend in the first round of Wimbledon and Roehampton last year and will be hoping to make the most of a slightly more fortuitous draw this time around. This should be an excellent first round match.

Viktoria Kuzmova seemed to enjoy her first experience of the grass in Roehampton as she beat a series of talented players in a run to the semi-final. She put up the biggest challenge against the eventual champion, Jelena Ostapenko, and she will go into Wimbledon with plenty of confidence. She should beat Katrine Isabel Steffensen without too many problems to set up a second round clash with either Christie or Vondrousova.

Viktoria Kuzmova was a semi-finalist at Roehampton this week

Neither Mendez or Hutchinson will have any real impact on the tournament, but it is the seventh seed that rounds out this quarter that could be a real threat. Two years ago, she reached the semi-final of both Wimbledon and Roehampton, where she beat the likes of Taylor Townsend and Donna Vekic. She has not really pushed on as expected and she has not played on grass since then, but if she clicks, she will be a real threat. She should cruise through the first two rounds and gain experience of playing on grass again, then it will take a good player to stop her.

Quarter 2

Tornado Alicia Black is the third seed, but she does not have a great deal of experience on grass. She had a decent win against Gabriella Taylor in Roehampton, but won just five games against Kuzmova in the second round. She has struggled a bit outside of the USA and although she is talented, it would be a surprise if she were to go all the way. She should get past Anna Brogan in the first round without too many problems though. Marie Bouzkova and Rebecca Sramkova are two good young players, but neither have shown any real interest in playing on grass thus far, so it would be a surprise were they to do much in this tournament.

Again, neither Yerolymos or Ogando have any obvious grass court potential, but the last match in this top part is probably the best match of the first round. Katie Boulter reached the quarter-final in Roehampton before running into an impressive Bellis, to back up some good performances on the senior tour, albeit not with the wins she might have hoped for. Her opponent is the Australian, Priscilla Hon, who lost to eventual finalist, Kristina Schmiedlova, in three sets in Roehampton and gained plenty of time on the grass in winning the doubles. In a relatively weak section, the winner of this could easily go through to the quarter-final.

The bottom half of this section is very strong. Anhelina Kalinina reached the quarter-final of Wimbledon last year as well as winning in Halle and had some decent time on court in reaching the quarter-final of singles and semi-final in doubles at Roehampton this week. Harriet Dart will not be an easy opponent though. She reached the semi-final in Roehampton last year and recorded wins against Ostapenko and Krejcikova, as well as running Ana Konjuh close. She has been gaining experience on the senior tour this season and this should be a fine match. The winner should come through their second round against either Dasha Ivanova or Qiu Yu Ye without too many issues.

The Roehampton champion has often done well at Wimbledon. Ostapenko
will be hoping to continue this tradition

Jelena Ostapenko was a dominant winner in Roehampton this week, using her power to dominate opponents. She did not drop a single set and, in recent years, the Roehampton champion has done well at Wimbledon. She will have been disappointed at her first round defeat last year and is a serious contender for the title this time around. Her opponent is the 15-year old Brit, Anastasia Mikheeva, who put in some good performances at Roehampton this week, only losing to Kalinina on a third set tiebreak. She will certainly prove a tough opponent for Ostapenko, but the Latvian should come through unscathed. The winner will likely play last year's losing Wimbledon doubles finalist and Roehampton finalist, Iryna Shymanovich. She would have been disappointed with her performance in Roehampton this year, but she has grass court pedigree and a second round match against Ostapenko could be a really high quality affair.

Quarter 3

This is a relatively weak quarter of the draw. Jil Belen Teichmann is a very good young player on the clay, but has never played a match on grass, which suggests that she is not overly bothered about this surface. Similar to Jorovic in the top half, she is a talented player, which could get her through a few rounds, but it is unlikely that she will seriously challenge for the title. Her opponent is 15-year old Fanny Stollar, who has only played one tournament on grass, but did have a good win against Isabelle Wallace before losing to Kuzmova in the third round. There is every chance she could threaten Teichmann in this match.

Both Evgeniya Levashova and Bianca Turati have only ever played one tournament on grass. Levashova fell away quickly against Zarazua in the end last week and had a medical timeout for a leg problem in the deciding set, while Bianca Turati had a good start against Kalinina, but was outclassed in the end. My guess is that Turati will win this and anything could happen if she gets through in this weak section.

Fanny Stollar might fancy her chances in this relatively weak section

Raveena Kingsley fought hard and was fairly impressive in defeat in the first round against Vondrousova in Roehampton last week and will fancy her chances against Simona Heinova, who was another first round casualty last week, this time against Badosa Gibert. However, the player most likely to come through this section of the draw is the Chinese player, Shilin Xu. She reached the quarter-final in Roehampton before being blasted away by an inspired Ostapenko, but she has as much grass court experience as any player in this draw. I suspect she will fall short against the top juniors, but in this weak section, she should come through.

Naiktha Bains is seeded in the next section, although she has no particular grass court pedigree. She had a pair of wins in Roehampton, but lost against the first decent player that she came up against. Her opponent, Greetje Minnen was beaten in the second round of Wimbledon last year against Bencic, but is a decent player on grass. Neither will challenge late in this tournament, but it could be a close match. They are likely to play the American, Sofia Kenin, in the second round, who was unfortunate enough to draw Ostapenko in the first round in Roehampton. Despite a straight sets loss, she showed enough to suggest she is a decent grass court player.

The player that is most likely to progress from this section is the Turk, Ipek Soylu. She already has a pair of third round appearances at Wimbledon to her name and has plenty of experience on the grass. She would also have gained valuable big match experience from the wildcard that she received into qualifying at Miami earlier this year. She will not be troubled by Burrage in the first round.

Ipek Soylu is most likely to progress out of this section of the draw

Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov is the fourth seed, but again, is a high seed with very little experience or pedigree on grass. She reached the final in the doubles at Roehampton, which will have given her some practice on the surface after being hammered in the first round of the singles by Katherine Sebov. She should have enough against another inexperienced grass court player in Ruse in the first round, but I would be surprised if she comes past Soylu in the next round.

Quarter 4

Kristina Schmiedlova is the first player in this section and will be full of confidence after a run to the final in Roehampton. It is the first time that she has really shown any form on grass and she will be hoping to carry this into Wimbledon. Her opponent, Usue Maitane Arconada, is not a bad grass court player by any means, having reached the final of the International Grass Court Championships in the USA in 2012, but if Schmiedlova plays as she did this week, it might be too big of a test for Arconada.

Neither Ploskina or Birrell have any obvious grass court pedigree, although Ploskina did push last year's semi-finalist, Louisa Chirico, to three sets in defeat in the first round. Birrell had a great run in Australia, but has never played a grass court match in her junior career.

Kristina Schmiedlova will be hoping to carry her good form into Wimbledon

Renata Zarazua battled well against an ailing Levashova last week in Roehampton after being outhit in the opening set. She came back well and backed it up with a win over Wargnier before falling to Bellis in the third round. Her opponent, Justina Mikulskyte, has played a few matches on grass before, but has struggled against some very average opponents, so I would be surprised if she is good enough to beat Zarazua here. The winner of that match will play either Katie Swan or Ioana Loredana Rosca. Swan is listed as British, but has spent most of her time in the USA and is expected to switch nationality in the future. Despite this, she will get some home support, but against a player that has won a couple of matches at Wimbledon in the past, this might not quite be enough. Rosca should come through this, but is unlikely to really challenge later in the tournament.

Sandra Samir was a semi-finalist in Halle last year and lost to Townsend at Wimbledon, but has struggled a bit recently and has not played a warm-up match on the grass yet. Her opponent, Michaela Gordon, is just 14-years old and this is her first tournament on grass. She came through qualifying, so at least has some experience, but the Egyptian may well be too good in the end. She is likely to face Scotland's Isabelle Wallace in the second round. While Wallace is far from the best grass court player out there, she should have too much for Grabher in the first round, and could well challenge Samir in the second.

CiCi Bellis is one of the favourites for the title

Jana Fett should win against Dalma Galfi to set up a match against the second seed, CiCi Bellis. Bellis has been one of the form players in the juniors this year and would have been disappointed to lose in the semi-final in Roehampton. Despite the 6-4, 6-2 scoreline against Schmiedlova, there was very little between the two players in the match. She won the International Grass Court Championships in the USA last year to show her grass court pedigree. She will certainly be one of the players to beat.

Predictions

Having run through most of the players in the draw, it is time for some predictions. As with any junior event, it can be fairly unpredictable, but here is my prediction:

Round 3

Ivana Jorovic v Katherine Sebov

Viktoria Kuzmova v Francoise Abanda

Tornado Alicia Black v Katie Boulter

Anhelina Kalinina v Jelena Ostapenko

Fanny Stollar v Shilin Xu

Sofia Kenin v Ipek Soylu

Kristina Schmiedlova v Renata Zarazua

Isabelle Wallace v Catherine Cartan Bellis

Quarter-Final

Katherine Sebov v Francoise Abanda

Katie Boulter v Jelena Ostapenko

Shilin Xu v Ipek Soylu

Kristina Schmiedlova v Catherine Cartan Bellis

Semi-Final

Francoise Abanda v Jelena Ostapenko

Ipek Soylu v Catherine Cartan Bellis

Final

Jelena Ostapenko v Catherine Cartan Bellis

2014 Ladies Wimbledon Preview

Last year's Wimbledon saw all the big names tumble out early on, leaving the field open for Marion Bartoli to come through to win her first ever grand slam title against Sabine Lisicki in the final. If she plays to her best, this title will be Serena Williams', but there are growing doubts surrounding her game and if she slips up, there are plenty of players waiting to lift the title.

Marion Bartoli won the title last year, but her retirement means that a new
champion will be crowned in 2014

In this article, I look at 20 of the seeded players that could fancy a chance at a run to the title and one unseeded player that is always a dangerous outsider to be avoided at Wimbledon.

Serena Williams

Seeding: #1
Best Odds: 6/4

Best Performance: Champion (2002, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2012)

Grass Court Record: 59-7

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 13-2

Strength: World-class serving on both first and second serves. World-class limiting of break points and ace production. Very good return game and break point creation
Weakness: Could improve break point save rate

Prediction: She is by far the best player in the women's game and if she plays to her ability, she is unbeatable. However, she has suffered some unexpected defeats this year and one might begin to wonder whether the intensity and motivation is still there given that she has won everything there is to win during the past few years. She will have one poor match during the tournament - if her opponent can make the most of it, then she is beatable. Otherwise, she will be lifting her sixth Wimbledon title.

Na Li

Seeding: #2
Best Odds: 18/1

Best Performance: QF (2006, 2010, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 35-17

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 4-4

Strength: Very strong second serve and return game. Above average on break point creation and conversion
Weakness: Few major weaknesses, although a lack of free points on serve via aces is not ideal

Prediction: Grass is not a surface that Na Li has thrived on in the past. While she has no clear weaknesses on the surface, she is not outstanding in any particular areas, which means that she often comes up short against the better grass court players. If she can avoid any specialists, she has a chance of a decent run, but it seems unlikely that she will be lifting the title.

Simona Halep

Seeding: #3
Best Odds: 16/1

Best Performance: R2 (2011, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 9-8

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 3-1

Strength: Excellent at converting break points. Return game is also well above average
Weakness: Too many double faults and slightly below average performance on both first and second serves

Prediction: Simona Halep's improvement over the past twelve months makes it slightly difficult to judge her based on previous statistics, but she will need a big improvement on grass if she is to really challenge her and back up her run to the French Open final. She has always had a solid return game on grass, but she really needs to improve on her own serve if she is going to avoid throwing away the hard earned leads that she creates through her excellent break point conversion rate. She could go well, but it would be a monumental leap forward if she wins the title.

Agnieszka Radwanska

Seeding: #4
Best Odds: 20/1

Best Performance: Finalist (2012)

Grass Court Record: 38-17

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 6-5

Strength: Excellent return game and break point creation. Well above average on second serve and avoids too many double faults. Very good break point save rate
Weakness: First serve points are poor and break point conversion rate could also be improved

Prediction: She should have reached back-to-back Wimbledon finals last year, but threw away the match against Lisicki in the semi-final. She is excellent on return and uses her game well to protect her second serve. She does very well at fighting off break points, but the lack of easy service points means that she will have to grind her way through the tournament. She has done that before, but she is always vulnerable to the big hitters.

Maria Sharapova

Seeding: #5
Best Odds: 11/2

Best Performance: Champion (2004)

Grass Court Record: 74-16

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 3-6

Strength: Excellent first serve, return game, break point creation and break point limitation. Plenty of free points through aces
Weakness: Too many double faults. Break point conversion could also be improved slightly

Prediction: Sharapova won this title ten years ago and it is slightly surprising that she has not won it again since then. Her return game is as good as any and she protects her serve very well, both winning plenty of first serve points and limiting the number of break points that she faces. With the exception of last year, she rarely loses to anyone other than the very best and with the lack of truly outstanding players at the moment, there is every chance that she could go very well again this year.

Petra Kvitova

Seeding: #6
Best Odds: 14/1

Best Performance: Champion (2011)

Grass Court Record: 30-12

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 8-5

Strength: Very good at limiting break points faced. First and second serves above average, as is the return game
Weakness: Few weaknesses, although possible a few too many double faults

Prediction: The 2011 champion will be hoping for another good run this year. She is strong behind her serve and her return game is good enough to create chances for her to break. There is a slight worry about her fitness after she withdrew in Eastbourne this week, but that seems to be precautionary, so one would expect her to be fully fit next week. Always a threat if her serve is working well, she could go well, but she can be very unpredictable at times.

Jelena Jankovic

Seeding: #7
Best Odds: 150/1

Best Performance: R4 (2006, 2007, 2008, 2010)

Grass Court Record: 40-23

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 0-1

Strength: Very good return game and break point creation
Weakness: Second serve could be improved. Break point conversion rate is below average and too many double faults

Prediction: Jankovic has reached the second week a number of times, but without getting any further than the Monday. However, she has struggled in recent years, twice going out in the first round and once in the second round in the last three attempts. She relies on her return game as her serve can often prove too weak on grass - the second serve in particular is below average and can result in too many double faults being given away. Her preparation for this year was less than ideal, with a first round defeat in Eastbourne as the third seed meaning that she has little practice on grass this year. No disrespect to Jankovic, but she is the player that the top four seeds will be hoping to draw from the 5-8 seeds bracket.

Victoria Azarenka

Seeding: #8
Best Odds: 25/1

Best Performance: SF (2011, 2012)

Grass Court Record: 32-14

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 8-5

Strength: World-class return game and break point creation. First serve is very effective and limits break points faced well
Weakness: Second serve could be improved and a few too many double faults

Prediction: Over the past few years, Azarenka has firmly established herself as the closest contender to Serena Williams. Her return game is outstanding, she uses her first serve and rallying ability to limit the break points that she faces and she creates plenty of break point opportunities for herself. The second serve is a real weakness though, but she will attempt to protect that by getting plenty of first serves in play. She has only been beaten by the very elite players in the past few years at Wimbledon - Serena in 2012 and at the Olympics and Petra Kvitova in 2011. Last year, she picked up an injury in a first round win over Koehler that forced her to withdraw. The major worry is that she has only just returned from a foot injury that has hampered her year, but if she gets a kind draw to ease herself into the tournament, there is no reason that she cannot do well here.

Angelique Kerber

Seeding: #9
Best Odds: 100/1

Best Performance: SF (2012)

Grass Court Record: 30-16

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-4

Strength: Good return game and break point creation
Weakness: Not many free points on serve through aces. Break point save rate could be improved

Prediction: A semi-final two years ago marks Kerber's best performance at Wimbledon. Her problem is that she is solid in most areas, but there are no areas that mark her out as a serious title contender. Her return game is comfortably above average, she creates a reasonable number of break points, but her serving statistics are nothing more than average. However, she is currently enjoying a good run at Eastbourne and if she gets a reasonable draw, there is no reason that she cannot have a good run at Wimbledon.

Dominika Cibulkova

Seeding: #10
Best Odds: 125/1

Best Performance: QF (2011)

Grass Court Record: 19-15

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 3-3

Strength: Good break point conversion and return game
Weakness: Very poor on both first and second serves, too many double faults and very few aces

Prediction: Grass has never really been a surface where Cibulkova thrives. Her best performance was a quarter-final three years ago, but that is the only time that she has reached the second week and it would be a surprise if she changed that this time around. Her serve is a major weakness on grass as shown by the fact that both her first and second serve win percentages are below the WTA average, let alone the level that would be needed to challenge here. Her returning is slightly above average, but this is unlikely to be enough to compensate for her serve. Certainly a player that the top names would like to see in their section.

Ana Ivanovic

Seeding: #11
Best Odds: 50/1

Best Performance: SF (2007)

Grass Court Record: 36-18

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-4

Strength: Very good first and second serves, plenty of free points from aces and above average return
Weakness: Few weaknesses, although break point conversion rate could be improved slightly

Prediction: Fresh off a first grass court title, Ivanovic is arguably playing as well as she has done for many years. It is a long time since she reached the semi-final as a 19-year old, but there are growing expectations that she could be set for another run here. Her first serve is very effective on grass, her second serve and return games are above average and there are few clear weaknesses in her game. Grass has long been her worst surface, but she has a reasonable chance to do well this year.

Flavia Pennetta

Seeding: #12
Best Odds: 250/1

Best Performance: R (2005, 2006, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 28-24

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 1-5

Strength: Above average return and break point save rates
Weakness: No major weaknesses, although possibly allows too many break points on her own serve

Prediction: Pennetta has reached the second week on several occasions, most recently last year having started the tournament as an outside to beat the late Elena Baltacha. She has a solid all-round game without being outstanding in any area. Despite an above average serve, she does allow too many break points against her and the way that she fell apart against Heather Watson in Eastbourne raises a few questions about whether she really has the game to challenge here. A tough opponent, but one that any real contenders should expect to come through without too many problems.

Eugenie Bouchard*

Seeding: #13
Best Odds: 16/1

Best Performance: R3 (2013)

Grass Court Record: 4-6

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 1-1

Strength: Excellent break point save rate. Above average first serve points won
Weakness: Poor on return and break point creation

Prediction: Bouchard has been the most consistent Grand Slam player this year, reaching the semi-final in both Australia and France. She reached the third round last year on her first attempt and is a former Wimbledon junior champion. She was disappointing against King in s-Hertogenbosch this week, but it felt like she was just there for a bit of practice ready to save herself for Wimbledon. The sample for her statistics is below the minimum that I would usually use, so it is difficult to put any real faith in the radar, but she does have the ability to go far and she has plenty of drive and confidence in her own ability. It might be too soon for her to win this year, but she has the ability to worry any of the top contenders.

Sara Errani

Seeding: #14
Best Odds: 300/1

Best Performance: R3 (2010, 2012)

Grass Court Record: 11-17

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 1-3

Strength: Very strong on break point creation and above average return
Weakness: Awful on both first and second serve points won, terrible break point conversion rate and very few free points through aces

Prediction: Her return game and break point creation is still good on grass, but her serve is hugely exposed on this surface, which is why she will never succeed at Wimbledon. Given her poor serve, she has to take advantage of any opportunities to break and her substandard break point conversion rate is a clear sign that she does not do that. She has lost her last four matches on grass in straight sets and any top players will be delighted to see her in their section of the draw.

Caroline Wozniacki

Seeding: #16
Best Odds: 125/1

Best Performance: R4 (2009, 2010, 2011)

Grass Court Record: 29-13

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 4-1

Strength: Very strong behind second serve, very good on return and break point creation. Limits break points faced
Weakness: Below average on break point conversion and save rates, suggesting possible mental fragility on big points

Prediction: Her radar looks impressive, so it is possibly surprising that Wozniacki has never been past the fourth round at Wimbledon. Her second serve win percentage is close to world-class, her return game and break point creation is very impressive and she does not face many break points on her own serve. The worry is the inconsistency that has crept into her game ever since she made it to the number one spot and with her lack of power to hit winners, if she cannot get enough balls back in court, she will struggle. She is currently enjoying a good run at Eastbourne and a run to the second week at Wimbledon is certainly not out of the realms of possibility.

Samantha Stosur

Seeding: #17
Best Odds: 100/1

Best Performance: R3 (2009, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 39-32

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-4

Strength: Strong behind the first and second serves, plenty of aces and very strong mentally on break points as shown by high break point conversion and save rates
Weakness: Very poor on return and struggles to create break points. Too many double faults as well.

Prediction: Sam Stosur is yet to make the second week of Wimbledon. While she is strong behind her serve and on the break points both for and against, her returning is a major weakness and means that she very rarely is able to get back into sets where she has fallen behind. She also has a tendency to fall apart after a good start, as we saw in the French Open against Sharapova. Last year at Wimbledon, she won the opening set against Lisicki, but won just three further games in the match. Two poor showings at Eastbourne and Birmingham in the warm-up events does not fill you with any confidence that she might chance her poor record at Wimbledon.

Sloane Stephens

Seeding: #18
Best Odds: 50/1

Best Performance: QF (2013)

Grass Court Record: 12-7

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 0-3

Strength: Reasonably strong on second serve points won
Weakness: No major weaknesses

Prediction: Sloane Stephens somehow scraped her way through to the quarter-finals last year despite seemingly being second best in almost every match. The radar suggests that she has no real weaknesses in her game, but also that there is no category where she is any more than slightly above average. She usually saves her best tennis for the Grand Slam events, which is probably for the best given she was pretty average during her matches at Eastbourne and Birmingham. She will scrap her way through a match or two, but it is tough to see her really challenging any of the serious contenders for the title.

Sabine Lisicki

Seeding: #19
Best Odds: 33/1

Best Performance: Finalist (2013)

Grass Court Record: 30-12

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 9-6

Strength: Excellent first serve win percentage, lots of free points through aces and above average break point save rate
Weakness: Sub-standard behind second serve, struggles to create break points and too many double faults

Prediction: Sabine Lisicki always comes alive at Wimbledon as shown by two quarter-finals, a semi-final and a final in her last four appearances at the event. She has an excellent first serve, which gives her plenty of cheap points, she is very strong at saving break points on her own serve and converting break points when she gets the opportunity. The major weaknesses are her return game and especially her second serve. On her day, she can beat anyone as demonstrated by wins over the likes of Serena, Sharapova, Radwanska and Bartoli in recent years at Wimbledon, but her form this year has been awful and she has not played a warm-up tournament. She is dangerous to write off at Wimbledon, but there are few signs that her form is good enough for a repeat of last year.

Andrea Petkovic

Seeding: #20
Best Odds: 150/1

Best Performance: R3 (2011)

Grass Court Record: 9-9

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 0-2

Strength: Excellent break point conversion rate, limits break points faced and very strong on second serve
Weakness: Poor break point creation and poor break point save rate

Prediction: She has done well to come back from injury and had a good run in Paris, but has rarely shown her best tennis at Wimbledon. She pushed Sloane Stephens last year and really should have won that match, but fell just short. Her second serve, break point limitation and break point conversion rate are her best attributes, but despite a slightly above average return game, she struggles to create break point opportunities or to save break points on her own serve. Again, a potentially dangerous opponent on her day, but not likely to really challenge later in the tournament.

Garbine Muguruza

Seeding: #27
Best Odds: 28/1

Best Performance: R2 (2013)

Grass Court Record: 10-6

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 1-1

Strength: Excellent break point creation
Weakness: Awful break point conversion rate

Prediction: One of the stars of the French Open, having eliminated Serena Williams and pushing Maria Sharapova to the limit, she will be hoping for another good performance here. She showed glimpses in s-Hertogenbosch last year that she has the game to play on grass and she is now fully-fit having taken time out during the second half of 2013. Her break point creation is world-class in the admittedly small sample of matches, although she struggles to convert those break points. Other than that, her all-round game is solid and she is improving by the week. Probably too soon for her to challenge for the title here, but as she showed in Paris, she has the ability to seriously trouble the top players on any given day.

Tsvetana Pironkova

Seeding: N/A
Best Odds: 125/1

Best Performance: SF (2010)

Grass Court Record: 31-22

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 5-5

Strength: Above average on first and second serve. Limits break point against her serve and gives away few free points through double faults
Weakness: No major weaknesses, although wins few free points on aces

Prediction: Pironkova is a strange player that only seems to come alive once each year - at Wimbledon. A semi-final in 2010 where she lost to Vera Zvonareva and a quarter-final in 2011 losing to Kvitova showed her ability. She took a set of Sharapova in 2012 and was only beaten by Radwanska last year. She has a very good all-round game with no clear weaknesses and will always be a threat to any player at this tournament.



* Sample size for Bouchard is below normal minimum, so radar could be inaccurate

2014 Wimbledon Preview

The 2014 edition of Wimbledon has the potential to be one of the most open Grand Slams for a long time. With niggling doubts surrounding the traditional big four, the established second tier players sensing weakness and the emergence of a new generation of players, there is an ever growing list of players for whom arguments can be made for challenging for the title.

Andy Murray is the defending champion, but there are plenty of players
aiming to take his title

In this article, I look at 17 players that will be seeded and will be in with a chance of either winning Wimbledon or at least troubling the top players.

Novak Djokovic

Seeding: #1
Best Odds: 9/5

Best Performance: Champion (2011)

Grass Court Record: 57-16

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 10-8

Strength: World-class returning and break point creation

Weakness: No major weaknesses, although break point conversion and save rates could be improved

Prediction: The champion in 2011 and a losing finalist last year, it is tough to see Djokovic not going well again. While the rest of the big four have all suffered surprising losses in slams over the past year or so, having reached at least the semi-final in 15 of his last 16 slams. His return game and break point creation is world class, his first and second serves are both above average, but the only slight weakness is an average break point conversion and save rates. In his last three defeats on grass against Murray, Del Potro and Federer, he created a total of 22 break points, but converted just five of them. Against these top players, he needs to be more clinical, particularly given that he was broken 12 times in those three matches. Unless he takes his opportunities, he could find the very best a step too far on this surface.

Rafael Nadal

Seeding: #2
Best Odds: 11/2

Best Performance: Champion (2008, 2010)

Grass Court Record: 50-14

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 16-6

Strength: World-class serve second points won, very good on return and at creating and limiting break points

Weakness: Few free points through aces and below average break point save rate

Prediction: The King of Clay has never been entirely at home on grass, but his quality and desire to win this tournament has seen him lift the title on two occasions, winning in for the first time in an epic encounter against Roger Federer. However, he has struggled in recent years, losing to Lukas Rosol and Steve Darcis in the last two years, and was disappointing (albeit justifiably so given the circumstances) in defeat against Dustin Brown in Halle. While only slightly above average behind his first serve, it is his excellent second serve statistics combined with a solid return game that is key to his chances at Wimbledon. As is the case every year, it is dangerous to write Nadal off, but there are certainly better grass court players in the draw.

Andy Murray

Seeding: #3
Best Odds: 4/1

Best Performance: Champion (2013)

Grass Court Record: 80-23

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 18-9

Strength: World-class return and break point creation

Weakness: Below average break point conversion rate

Prediction: The defending champion comes to Wimbledon on a 13-match winning run on those hallowed courts, but there are questions facing him in 2014. He is yet to reach a final since his return from surgery late last year, although a good run at Roland Garros should have restored some of the confidence and match fitness that was lacking early in the season. A curious defeat to Radek Stepanek at Queen's should give him time to recover after the French Open and he is sure to be one of the favourites for this title. Arguably the best grass court player in the world, he will fancy his chances against any player in the draw.

Roger Federer

Seeding: #4
Best Odds: 6/1

Best Performance: Champion (2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012)

Grass Court Record: 127-16

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 28-8

Strength: World class second serve, returning, break point creation, limiting break point on own serve

Weakness: No major weaknesses, although break point conversion and save rates could be improved

Prediction: Arguably the greatest grass court player there has ever been. His career statistics are simply phenomenal - world class first and second serve, return, break point creation, limiting break points on his own serve, few break points. The only weakness is that his performance on break point has been rather average, which has become more noticeable as the other facets of his game have declined slightly in recent years. He will have been hurt by his defeat to Stakhovsky last year and with just two semi-finals in his last seven slams, it is tempting to write him off. However, if he is going to have one final hurrah, it will be on the grass at Wimbledon.

Stanislas Wawrinka

Seeding: #5
Best Odds: 25/1

Best Performance: R4 (2008, 2009)

Grass Court Record: 17-19

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 0-4

Strength: No standout strengths, but decent break point creation

Weakness: Too many double faults and break point conversion is below average

Prediction: His only warm-up event on grass ended in a semi-final defeat to Grigor Dimitrov after victories against the injured pair of Marinko Matosevic and Marcos Baghdatis. On grass, he has just one career final and is yet to beat a top-20 player in four attempts. Despite winning his first Grand Slam title in Australia, he has struggled since then, and combined with the health scare that has seen him miss training this week, it would be a major surprise to see him go far in this tournament. He is arguably the player that the big four would most like to see in their quarter from the 5-8 seeds.

Tomas Berdych

Seeding: #6
Best Odds: 50/1

Best Performance: Finalist (2010)

Grass Court Record: 47-20

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 6-10

Strength: Good first and second serve combined with slightly above average returning

Weakness: Poor break point conversion and save rates, suggesting mental weakness on big points

Prediction: One of just six players in the draw to have reached a Wimbledon final, he is always dangerous at Wimbledon. It has taken either a top-10 player or an inspired Gulbis to beat him on his last four visits here and with the questionable form of the top players, combined with a lack of obvious challengers from below, he might fancy his chances. He has very good first and second serve figures, plus he is above average on return, which combines to make him a very tough opponent. There may be some concerns over his recent form, having been disappointing at Queen's and surprisingly under-par against Gulbis in Paris, but if his game is firing, he has a real chance to go far here. Certainly the player that the big four will want to avoid in the 5-8 seeding bracket.

David Ferrer

Seeding: #7
Best Odds: 100/1

Best Performance: QF (2012, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 38-16

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-7

Strength: World class return game and break point creation

Weakness: Few cheap points on serve through aces and could be better on break point conversion and save rates

Prediction: In the last four years, David Ferrer has been beaten at Wimbledon by Murray, Del Potro, Soderling and Tsonga. In other words, he only tend to be beaten by the elite. He has two grass court titles to his name as well, so it is strange that he is seemingly so underrated on the surface. He has an excellent return game, which leads to plenty of break points, plus he defends his second serve relatively well. His performance on break points could be better and he struggles against the very best players, but if he finds himself in a weak section of the draw, there is no reason he cannot do very well and at least match his best results at Wimbledon.

Milos Raonic

Seeding: #8
Best Odds: 66/1

Best Performance: R2 (2011, 2012, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 10-11

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 0-2

Strength: World class first and second serve, limits break points and plenty of free points through aces

Weakness: Awful return and break point creation. Below average on break point save rate

Prediction: Often tipped to be a threat on grass with his booming serve, Raonic is yet to show any sign that he has the game to succeed at Wimbledon. In his last few tournaments on grass, he has lost to Peter Gojowczyk, Igor Sijsling and Ivan Dodig - all players that he should be beating with ease if he wants to challenge. While he does win plenty of points behind his serve, his return game is as bad as any in the top 100 and his lack of movement is badly shown up on grass. He under-performs when down a break point, which, combined with his inability to break back, means that he struggles if he goes behind in a set. Another player that the big four would happily take from the 5-8 seed bracket.

Kei Nishikori

Seeding: #10
Best Odds: 80/1

Best Performance: R3 (2012, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 23-17

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-5

Strength: Very good on return and break point creation

Weakness: Few free points on serve through aces, very poor first serve points won and break point conversion and save rates below average

Prediction: Kei Nishikori is a wonderfully gifted shot-maker, but his body has so often let him down. On grass, he has struggled with his serve, winning significantly below average points behind his first serve. He is a very good returner, but all too often he squanders leads or has to fight to work his way back into sets. The lack of cheap points on serve also means that he finds himself involved in plenty of long rallies, which doesn't help his fragile body. He will be a tough player to beat and it will take a real fight, but it is tough to see him lasting a fortnight and the top players should have plenty of joy against his weak serve.

Grigor Dimitrov

Seeding: #11
Best Odds: 22/1

Best Performance: R2 (2011, 2012, 2013)

Grass Court Record: 23-16

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-3

Strength: Above average in creating break points and limiting break points on his own serve

Weakness: Second serve is significantly below average as is the performance on break point conversion and save rates

Prediction: The champion at Queen's is always a player to watch out for at Wimbledon and Dimitrov is no exception. He played well all week, although he was aided by a Lopez choke in the final, particularly on match point in the second set. Despite that, he served impeccably through the week, but will need to find plenty of first serves if he is to challenge at Wimbledon given his very poor second serve performance. He is also well below average on the big points, which is something that he will need to change when it comes to playing the best players where opportunities may be limited. He is a talented player, but it is tough not to feel that this might be a year or so too early for him to be a serious contender.

Ernests Gulbis

Seeding: #12
Best Odds: 66/1

Best Performance: R3 (2013)

Grass Court Record: 8-14

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-6

Strength: Good on break point conversion and save rates. Above average first serve

Weakness: Awful on return and break point creation

Prediction: The enigmatic Latvian is always tough to predict. On his day, capable of competing with the very best, but just as likely to throw in a poor performance. He comes into Wimbledon on the back of his best ever Grand Slam performance, but with the exception of one win over Berdych a couple of years ago, he has rarely shown much on the grass. His serve is fractionally above average, but his return game on grass is dismal and he struggles to create break point opportunities. He is actually very solid on the big points and his break point save rate is right up there with the very best, which will help keep him in sets given his inability to earn breaks of his own. He is arguably playing the best tennis of his career, but while there were signs in the past of his ability on other surfaces, they have not been there on grass.

Richard Gasquet

Seeding: #13
Best Odds: 250/1

Best Performance: SF (2007)

Grass Court Record: 47-21

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 2-8

Strength: Very good second serve and return, gives away few double faults on serve
Weakness: Break point save rate is below average

Prediction: Richard Gasquet is a player that tends to go as far as his seeding suggests that he should and no further. Based on that, we should expect him to reach the second week, which seems realistic. He has a very solid all-round game, but his fragility when down break point will always cost him when it comes to playing against the top players. There are fitness concerns ahead of this tournament, but if he is in reasonable shape, he has the ability to push the real contenders, if not actually beat them.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Seeding: #14
Best Odds: 100/1

Best Performance: SF (2011, 2012)

Grass Court Record: 56-17

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 5-7

Strength: Very good first serve, excellent break point save rate

Weakness: Few weaknesses, although return game could be improved

Prediction: Over his career, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been one of the most solid and consistent grass court performers, reaching two semi-finals at Wimbledon and it generally takes one of the elite players to beat him. As the radar suggests, there are few weaknesses in his game, but his recent form coming into this tournament is rather worrying and suggests that he could be on the decline. If his serve is working well, he has the potential to outperforming his seeding here, but he will have to significantly up his game from recent outings. That is a big if and this tournament could give us a real insight as to whether Tsonga is a shadow of his former self.

Jerzy Janowicz

Seeding: #15
Best Odds: 150/1

Best Performance: SF (2013)

Grass Court Record: 14-6

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 1-1

Strength: Excellent first serve, limiting break points faced and plenty of cheap points through aces

Weakness: Too many double faults and below average performance on return

Prediction: He was the surprise of last year's tournament as he reached the semi-final and put up a fight against the eventual winner, Andy Murray. However, before we get too carried away, it is important to remember that he faced just one top-35 player to reach that stage as the draw opened up for him. His first serve is his major weapon, but he throws in plenty of double faults and has yet to prove himself on return. A poor defeat in Halle against Pierre-Hugues Herbert summed up a pretty dismal year and while he will be hoping that a return to Wimbledon will turn things around, there is little to suggest that will be the case. A decent grass court player, but nothing more.

Fernando Verdasco

Seeding: #18
Best Odds: 350/1

Best Performance: QF (2013)

Grass Court Record: 44-23

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 3-6

Strength: Very good on break point conversion and save rates

Weakness: Too many points given away through double faults

Prediction: Last year, Fernando Verdasco came as close as anyone to derailing Andy Murray's title run. The Spaniard led by two sets to nil and had multiple break points in the fourth set to take what could have been a decisive lead. It was his best performance at Wimbledon to date and, while he is not going to challenge for the title, the radar suggests that he is a solid grass court player and is perfectly capable of seriously worrying the real contenders.

Feliciano Lopez

Seeding: #19
Best Odds: 200/1

Best Performance: QF (2005, 2008, 2011)

Grass Court Record: 54-29

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 10-10

Strength: Excellent first serve, plenty of free points through aces and good at limiting break point chances

Weakness: Return and break point creation both below average

Prediction: On grass, Feliciano Lopez is one of the most difficult players to break. His big lefty serve and excellent volleying ability causes plenty of difficulties for opponents and limits the number of break points that he faces, which, given his relatively poor break point save rate, is probably a relief. As with many big servers, his return game is somewhat lacking, but he is an experienced grass court player and his 10-10 record against top-20 players demonstrates, he is a dangerous opponent on this surface. He is full of confidence after a run to the final at Queen's - a title that he really should have won having had a match point in the second set and being up a break in the third. This summed up his problem though - he has a tendency to struggle under pressure, which could restrict the damage that he can do on the big stage at Wimbledon.

Marin Cilic

Seeding: #27
Best Odds: 100/1

Best Performance: R4 (2008, 2012)

Grass Court Record: 35-19

Grass Court Record (vs Top 20): 3-7

Strength: Good on the break point conversion and save rates, suggesting mental strength on big points

Weakness: No clear weaknesses, but not top class on either serve or return

Prediction: Back-to-back finals at Queen's show that Marin Cilic is perfectly at home on the grass. While there are no outstanding facets of his game, there are also no clear weaknesses either. He is strong on the break points, which stands him in good stead at crucial points of the match. His defeat to Matosevic at Queen's last week is slightly concerning, although he admitted that he had not prepared enough on grass, which should be rectified come Wimbledon. He certainly does not have the game to win the tournament, but he will be a tricky opponent for any of the players just below the elite level.

*          *          *

Player Radars

Just a brief section on understanding the player stat radars. The radar below shows how Mr. ATP Average on grass would appear on these graphics.

If a player touches the outer ring on any of the statistics, this is equivalent to being two standard deviations above the ATP average, while a player touching the inner-most circle is equivalent to being two standard deviations below the ATP average. The average and standard deviations are based on the career performance of the top 100 players at the end of 2013.

Most of the statistics are fairly self-explanatory, although there are two that I will expand upon. The BP Conversion Rate is calculated by dividing the % of break points won by the player's % won on return to determine whether he performs better or worse compared to an average point when he creates a break point on his opponent's serve. A value of 100 corresponds to performing exactly the same, whether it is break point or not, a value greater than 100 corresponds to performing better on break point than an average point and a value lower than 100 corresponds to under-performing on break point. In the same way, the BP Save Rate divides the % of break points saved on a player's serve by the % of points won on serve to determine whether he performs better when facing break point.