The World Championship elite men’s road race this year could
be one of the most intriguing races for a long time with opportunities for a
whole range of different types of rider to get their hands on the coveted
rainbow jersey.
At 272.2km, it will be a long day for the riders and it will
be a tough ride, particularly once the circuits around Florence start. The laps
are 16.6km long and will test the riders to their limits. The Fiesole climb is
4.4km long with an average gradient of 5.2% with a steep section of over 10% at
the end of the climb. They then embark on a reasonably technical descent down
from Fiesole, then the short climb on Via Salviati. The climb is only 600m
long, but with an average gradient of over 10% and a section of 200m at over
16%, it could be the perfect spot for the climbers to launch their attacks.
The favourite for this race is Fabian Cancellara. He has
been targeting this race since the spring and would appear to be in excellent condition.
His third place in the ITT, just two seconds behind Bradley Wiggins was far
better than I expected, and it is hard to see him not being in the mix. On a
classics-type course such as this, he will be fancying his chances, and he will
view the technical sections of the descents as an opportunity to force the
others to push themselves. The only real question is whether he can stay will
the punchier climbers on Fiesole and Via Salviati, but Matej Mohoric, the
winner of the U23 race, said that the course is not quite as difficult as it
looks.
Peter Sagan has had an excellent year and will be hoping to
cap it off with the World Championship title. It will be difficult to drop him
on these short punchier climbs and if he is there at the finish, he will be the
favourite in a sprint. However, there have been some questions concerning his
tactics in the Classics and he is yet to win a long race such as this. Despite
this, he is the second favourite and will certainly be one to watch.
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| Fabian Cancellara is the favourite to win the World Championship Road Race |
The defending champion, Philippe Gilbert, finally won a race
in the rainbow jersey at almost the last possible opportunity in the Vuelta. A
few years ago, you would have marked Gilbert down as the big favourite for a
race like this, but his form has dropped off. To win this, Gilbert will probably
have to look to get away on the final lap up either the climb to Fiesole or Via
Salviati. Whether he can get away, given the form that he is in, remains
questionable. However, it is dangerous to write off someone like Gilbert in a
race such as this.
The next group of potential winners are the GC-type riders.
The likes of Vincenzo Nibali for Italy, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez
and Alberto Contador for Spain, Chris Froome for Great Britain and Nairo
Quintana for Colombia. Any of these riders will know that they have to lose the
likes of Cancellara, Sagan and Gilbert if they are to stand any chance of
winning this race.
These riders will likely attack on the final lap ascents to
Fiesole and Via Salviati. The final climb of Via Salviati is most likely to be
where the race really kicks off – on steep climbs like this, few can stick with
Joaquim Rodriguez, while Nibali and Froome have both shown their ability to
ride away from the field in the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France respectively.
If it comes down to a group of GC-type riders, Alejandro Valverde will fancy
himself to have the best sprint finish.
It is also worth keeping in mind those riders that perform
well in the Classics. Especially if Mohoric is correct in that the course is
not quite as tough as it appears, this brings this type of rider into
contention. Edvald Boasson Hagen is certainly one to watch. He is capable of
sticking with the peloton on some of the trickier climbs and he would certainly
fancy his chances in a sprint in a reduced group. Ian Stannard performed well
this year and looked in excellent shape during the Tour of Britain. If there
are any problems with Chris Froome, particularly if he decides that he cannot
get away on the short climbs, Stannard could well become Great Britain’s second
choice. The likes of Maxim Iglinsky, Carlos Betancur, Zdenek Stybar, Jan
Bakelandts, Thomas Voeckler, Warren Barguil, Nicolas Roche and Diego Ulissi
cannot be discounted either.
Two particularly interesting riders are Dan Martin and Rui
Costa. Martin looked in good form at the Tour of Britain, particularly on the
steep climb to Honister Pass, plus he has proven ability to win these long
races. His performance at Liege-Bastogne-Liege is particularly relevant here,
having won a long race and showing excellent tactics at the end. He has a good turn
of pace if it comes to a sprint in a small group and he is not afraid to attack
on the climbs. Similarly, Rui Costa has been in excellent form this year,
winning two stages in the Tour de France and will be hoping that he can attack
and hold onto a lead.
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| Dan Martin is an interesting outsider for this race |
The final twist to this race is that rain is expected on
Sunday. This could make the descents particularly difficult, plus making
attacking on steep slippery and possibly oily roads tough. On the later
circuits, we might see the top descenders looking to take a few risks and put
their challengers under some pressure. The likes of Fabian Cancellara, Vincenzo
Nibali and Peter Sagan could put some of the other hopefuls under real pressure
if they decide to rocket down the technical parts of the descents. In terms of
riders that have performed well in bad weather this year, Nibali in the Giro
certainly springs to mind, while those riders that performed well in Milan-San
Remo (Sagan, Cancellara and Stannard) must be worth a look.
Overall, it has the potential to be an enthralling race with
different groups of riders looking to employ a range of tactics. Picking a
winner is certainly not easy, but a few bets do stand out.
Recommended Bets
Fabian Cancellara @ 18/5 (William Hill)
Dan Martin E/W @ 33/1 (Stan James)
Edvald Boasson Hagen E/W @ 40/1 (Paddy Power)
Ian Stannard E/W @ 200/1 (Bet365)
