Vuelta a Espana Stage 1 Betting Preview

The Vuelta opens with a 27.4km TTT from Vilanova de Arousa along the Galician coast to Sanxenxo. It is a pretty flat, non-technical course that will benefit from tailwinds along most of the route. However, as they turn east into Sanxenxo, there may be a bit of an issue with crosswinds during the final couple of kilometres that might add a slight challenge.

The course will suit the big powerhouse time triallers, so Omega Pharma Quick-Step with Tony Martin and Radioshack with Fabian Cancellara have to be high up in our consideration. While OPQS might not have their strongest team here, Tony Martin showed in the Tour de France what he can do, putting in a monstrous shift despite his injuries to almost single-handedly drag them to the stage win. He is backed up by the likes of Vandewalle, Stybar, Pauwels and Meersman and they start as the strong favourites.

Radioshack have a strong team here, driven by Fabian Cancellara. He will be supported by a strong cast of GC men in Horner, Kiserlovski and Zubeldia, plus Hermans and Popovych and they could have a real chance of snatching a stage win and the leader’s jersey if OPQS slip up.

Astana are the other team that are strongly fancied. They do not have any out-and-out time trial specialists, but have a very strong team with the likes of Janez Brajkovic, Tanel Kangert, Andriy Grivko and, of course, Vincenzo Nibali. There are few weak links and they will be hoping that they can spread the work to keep men fresh and take an early lead.

The other team that could challenge is Movistar. They won this stage last year, but that was on a hillier course that suited them far more. They are also missing their strong time-triallists and I would be surprised if they can repeat their win from last year.

Omega Pharma Quick-Step are the strong favourite to win the first
stage of the Vuelta a Espana

Without the power of Wiggins, Froome or Porte, this could be a tough stage for Sky and they will simply be hoping to limit their losses rather than seriously looking at the stage victory. Orica won the TTT in the Tour de France (much to our enjoyment), but I would be amazed if they were to win here – they simply do not have the team this time. Belkin will be hoping Stef Clement and their big men can help them drive to a good time. While they are unlikely to challenge for the win, it would be a surprise if they were to lose too much time on this course.

The other teams will simply be looking to limit their losses. Joaquim Rodriguez will be hoping the Russians can put in a big shift to keep him from losing too much time, while the likes of Carlos Betancur and Ivan Basso will be hoping not to see their chances go up in smoke at the first hurdle.

Prediction

1. Omega Pharma Quick-Step

2. Radioshack

3. Astana

4. Movistar

5. Belkin

Recommended Bets

Omega Pharma Quick-Step @ 2.50 (Boyle Sports)

Recommended Match Bets

Team Belkin to beat Team Sky @ 2.66 (Bet365)

Radioshack to beat Movistar @ 1.90 (Bwin)

2013 Vuelta a Espana Betting Preview - Points, King of the Mountains and Teams

Unlike the Tour de France, the winner of the points classification in the Vuelta is usually one of the leading GC contender. There are few points for intermediate sprints and the majority come at the finishes, with no emphasis on the flat stages as in the Tour.

The perfect example of this was last year where John Degenkolb won five stages, yet still only finished fourth in the points classification. In other words, we can rule out all the sprinters and non-climbers. The last two winners have been Alejandro Valverde and Bauke Mollema, and with eleven mountain finishes, it seems likely that we will see one of the leading contenders winning this jersey.

The favourite is Joaquim Rodriguez, just ahead of Alejandro Valverde. These two battled for the jersey last year with the fight going down to the final climb of the Vuelta. Lurking just back are Vincenzo Nibali and the Colombian pair of Carlos Betancur and Sergio Henao. It is unlikely that we will see a winner from outside this small group – they are all riders that are capable of winning mountain stages and have the consistency to compete on any type of uphill finish. Carlos Betancur’s seeming inability to actually win a stage counts against him and I am not entirely convinced about Sergio Henao’s consistency to win a jersey such as this. Nibali looks a tempting price with his ability to ride away on the climbs, while Rodriguez and Valverde are certainly justifiable favourites, although the prices need second thoughts.

Joaquim Rodriguez is the favourite to win the King of the Mountain jersey

It is rare that a leading contender wins the mountain jersey though. Unlike the Tour, there are no double-points on mountain finishes, which means that the winner will likely be involved in plenty of breakaways. Simon Clarke won with 63 points last year to end David Moncoutie’s four year domination of the jersey. So, we are looking for riders that are likely to be attacking climbers.

Amets Txurruka has been well-backed and is currently the second favourite. He has won mountain jerseys in stage races before and will be looking to get plenty of exposure for his Caja Rural team. He has even indicated he might go for this jersey. However, at just 7/1, we have to look past him.

Last year’s winner, Simon Clarke, is available at 18/1. He was involved in a couple of breakaways in the Tour de France and will certainly look to challenge for this jersey. Orica do not really have any serious GC contenders, so he will be free to go out and fight for mountain points and it would be dangerous to write him off.

We saw Mikel Nieve fighting for the mountain jersey in the Tour de France and he might target the jersey here. With the financial problems at Euskaltel, the riders will be wanting to get maximum exposure and he is certainly able in the mountains. At 25/1, it is worth a second look, although it depends whether he is close enough to the leaders to be allowed to go away.

A possible outsider could be Tomasz Marcyznski. He finished 13^th last year to demonstrate his ability and Vacansoleil are another team that will be desperate for plenty of exposure. They have brought a strong team, but they may well still look to get involved in breakaways, so at 33/1, he is worth considering.

Moving onto the team classification, there are a number of possible winners. Here, we are looking for a team with three strong contenders for the general classification.

Saxo-Tinkoff are the favourites as they come into the race with a strong squad. With Roman Kreuziger, Rafal Majka and Nicolas Roche, they have three realistic contenders for the top 10, while Chris Anker Sorensen is a reasonable fourth rider if needed. They won the team classification in the Tour de France and will be fancied to add this title as well.

Saxo-Tinkoff look valid favourites to win the team classification

Euskaltel are just behind them with a team including Samuel Sanchez, Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve. However, I am not convinced that any of them will be involved high up in the GC – they just do not have the consistency in a three week race - so I am happy to pass them over.

Movistar and Astana follow and both have strong squads. With Alejandro Valverde, Benat Intxausti and Eros Capecchi as well as several other decent climbers, they are worth watching, especially given how the Spanish always perform well in this race. Astana have Vincenzo Nibali, backed up by Kangert, Tiralongo and Fuglsang. However, I suspect that they will concentrate on giving everything for Nibali, rather than focus on this classification.

Moving onto some of the slightly bigger prices, AG2R have the trio of Betancur, Pozzovivo and Nocentini, who are all very capable in the mountains, but I have slight doubts about some of them in a three week race. Sky have the strong Colombian pair of Henao and Uran, but there is no obvious third rider. One of Cataldo and Puccio will probably be that man – if they can rediscover their Giro form, they could be in with a shout, but that is a maybe. Katusha have Rodriguez and Moreno, but again lack that third rider.

One interesting outsider could be Radioshack with their experienced trio of Horner, Kiserlovski and Zubeldia. While they are all arguably past their primes, they are all still very capable and will likely have men in the breakaways as well.

Recommended Bets

Joaquim Rodriguez to win Points Classification @ 7/2

Vincenzo Nibali to win Points Classification @ 6/1

Mikel Nieve to win Mountains Classification E/W @ 25/1

Tomasz Marcyznski to win Mountains Classification E/W @ 33/1

Saxo-Tinkoff to win Team Classification @ 5/2

2013 Vuelta a Espana Betting Preview

The final Grand Tour of the year gets underway on Saturday with a 27km time-trial from Vilanova de Arousa to Sanxenxo in Galicia. In total, the peloton will cover 3,391 over 21 stages, culminating in the mountain top finish on Alto de l’Angliru that should decide the final classification before the short final stage into Madrid.

Last year’s winner, Alberto Contador, has not returned to defend his crown after a disappointing Tour de France, leaving just two former winners of this race to battle for a second title – Vincenzo Nibali and Alejandro Valverde. As experienced and successful Grand Tour riders, they are two of the top three in the betting, where they are joined by the ultra-consistent, Joaquim Rodriguez.

Behind them are a mix of experienced veterans and the next generation of Grand Tour riders. Ivan Basso and Samuel Sanchez have 29 previous Grand Tours between them, while Roman Kreuziger will be looking to back up an impressive Tour de France. Among the young pretenders, the Sky duo of Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran cannot be written off, while Carlos Betancur and Rafal Majka have both had excellent years so far and will be hoping to finish on a high.

So, the question is, who will ride into Madrid wearing the red jersey?

Vincenzo Nibali is favourite to win the Vuelta and become just
the fourth cyclist to complete the Giro-Vuelta double

Vincenzo Nibali was faultless in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year. He finished almost five minutes ahead of second place, highlighted by a magnificent solo win atop Tre Cime di Lavaredo, where he dropped Rigoberto Uran and Carlos Betancur. If he is in peak condition, he is the strong favourite to win this race. He has won here before in 2010, but the only real concern is whether he is targeting this race or the World Championships. This year sees a rare chance for a climber to win the World Championships, so there is a chance that that may be the focus over the Vuelta. Indeed, Astana team manager, Giuseppe Martinelli, suggested that he “expected him to be further along in fitness.” Despite this, three weeks is plenty of time to ride into shape and if he is in touch into the final week, he will be the favourite.

The Spanish hopes are spearheaded by Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde. Rodriguez had a solid, if unspectacular, Tour de France, collecting his third Grand Tour podium finish. He was very quiet throughout, but came into his own in the final week and was able to claw his way back up onto the podium. However, Katusha do not appear to have the strongest team, so there could be a slight concern as to the support that he will receive in the mountains. In contrast, Alejandro Valverde looked strong, but lost a huge chunk of time on Stage 13 when echelons formed in the peloton and he was caught out by a mechanical. He will be desperate to make up for that disappointment and will be a serious contender here. Movistar arrive with a strong squad, so it would be foolish to overlook Valverde.

The only real worry is that they both rode the Tour de France and, historically, it has proven very tough to double the Tour and the Vuelta. This is a concern that we will revisit with several of the other contenders.

Team Sky come into this race with the dangerous Colombian pairing of Sergio Henao and Rigoberto Uran. Henao has been named as leader, perhaps due to Uran’s move to OPQS at the end of the season, but I think Sky will have learnt from their Giro debacle. I suspect that Uran will be allowed to race his own race to prevent the situation that happened in the Giro, where Wiggins failed and Sky were left with too much to do, having sent Uran and Henao back down the road to help. Sky have named a strong squad and, as ever, they know how to win these races.

Carlos Betancur is tipped to go well. He finished fifth in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year and is one of the most talented climbers in the peloton. While he has barely raced since the Giro, he will be fresh for this race and Quintana’s performance in the Tour de France has shown that you do not necessarily need to race in the build-up to these races. With Pozzovivo and Nocentini in support, AG2R will be hopeful of an impressive Vuelta.

Ivan Basso has been focussing on this race since he was forced to miss the Giro and he looked in decent form when finishing sixth in the Vuelta a Burgos earlier this month. He is a former Grand Tour winner and finished fourth on his only previous appearance in the Vuelta. While he is not the rider he once was, his season has been built around this race and it would be dangerous to write him off.

Two-time Giro winner, Ivan Basso, could be an unlikely contender to challenge for the title

Roman Kreuziger was impressive in the Tour de France, putting in huge shifts in support of Alberto Contador. He comes into this race as the team leader for Saxo-Tinkoff, backed up by a very strong looking team. However, as with the Spanish duo earlier, the effort of the Tour de France could come back to haunt him in the later stages of this race. If he falters, the likes of Rafal Majka, who was so impressive in the Giro, and Nicolas Roche could step up to lead the team.

Moving into the outsiders, Daniel Martin was tipped by many to do well in the Tour de France, but finished well down after a couple of poor days in the mountains. Again, having ridden the Tour, he may struggle a bit here. Daniel Moreno will ride in support of Joaquim Rodriguez, but has only ever finished outside the top 12 once in six appearances and is worth keeping an eye on.

Bauke Mollema, Mikel Nieve and Igor Anton all had solid Tour de France performances and will relish the climbs here, but again, it comes back to a question of fatigue in attempting back-to-back Grand Tours.

Samuel Sanchez is getting on in years, but always performs well and his 12^th in the Giro was the first time in nine Grand Tours that he has finished outside the top 10. He comes into this well rested, and while the victory may be a step too far, he will be eyeing a podium challenge.

The Spaniards always seem to perform well here, so it would be dangerous to write off the likes of Benat Intxausti and David Arroyo, but it is more likely that they will be challenging for top 10 finishes rather than the overall classification.

I am planning on keeping the ante-post bets fairly small and concentrate on the individual stages, but there are a couple that stood out and caught my eye.

Prediction

1. Vincenzo Nibali

2. Alejandro Valverde

3. Ivan Basso

4. Joaquim Rodriguez

5. Sergio Henao

Recommended Bets

Ivan Basso @ 20/1 E/W

Ivan Basso @ 5/1 Top 3 Finish

Rigoberto Uran @ 6/4 Top 10 Finish

Benat Intxausti @ 3/1 Top 10 Finish
David Arroyo @ 6/4 Top 10 Finish

Recommended Match Bets

David Arroyo to beat Chris Horner @ 17/20
Daniel Moreno to beat Samuel Sanchez @ 2.93