After the first mountain stage, many are suggesting that the
Tour de France could already be decided and it would be a brave man to
disagree. Team Sky simply destroyed the rest of their challengers before Chris
Froome rode off into the distance to win in stunning fashion.
Froome now has a 51 second lead over his teammate Richie
Porte, 1:25 over Alejandro Valverde, who impressed to finish third and 1:51
over Alberto Contador, who simply could not stay with the pace on the climb to
Ax-3 Domaines. While they are just about still in contention, albeit hanging on
by their fingertips, there were a number of contenders that are already done.
Joaquim Rodriguez at 2:31 back is surely too far back, while
the likes of Andy Schleck (4:00), Cadel Evans (4:36), Ryder Hesjedal (8:29) and
Tejay van Garderen (12:38) have all seen hopes of, not only victory, but a
podium place slip away.
In terms of our ante-post bets, Tejay van Garderen outright
and young rider is out the window, as is Ryder Hesjedal to finish in the top
10. As expected, the Canadian struggled with his broken rib and is probably too
far back now to really challenge. However, Haimar Zubeldia and Mikel Nieve are
both still within touching distance of the top 10.
Moving onto Stage 9 and it is another tough stage with four
category 1 climbs and a category 2 climb. With a long downhill stretch to the
finish, it is a stage that is likely to be targeted by a breakaway and the
mountain jersey contenders.
Depending on how the leading contenders are feeling, we may
see attacks on La Hourquette d’Ancizan, but the long descent may put them off
trying something on this stage. However, given the time lost today, it may
leave them with no option but to try.
So, we want to look for men that are potentially going to be
involved in a breakaway or who will be targeting mountain classification points.
In terms of attacking riders, Thomas Voeckler is certainly
one that springs to mind. He tried attacking on the climb today, but was unable
to really get away, but he will be eyeing this stage. He loves attacking and
the long descent into the finish is one that he will enjoy. The attacking
riding of Pierre Rolland so far suggests that the team are keen to target the
polka dot jersey, so it would be no surprise to see Voeckler involved heavily.
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| This should be a stage that suits the style of Thomas Voeckler |
I suspect Peter Sagan might look to get involved in the
breakaway to pick up points in the intermediate sprint. He is capable in the
mountains, and although it would be a surprise to see him involved all the way
to the end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the break.
It should be a reasonably large breakaway group and plenty
of teams not involved in the fight for the general classification will be
looking to get men into the group. Running through the teams, likely contenders
might be Thomas de Gendt (Vacansoleil), Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS), Pierrick
Fedrigo (FDJ), Simon Clarke and Michael Albasini (Orica GreenEdge), Damiano
Cunego (Lampre), the Izagirre brothers (Euskaltel), Brice Feillu (Sojasun) and
Daniel Moreno (Katusha).
In other words, a stage like this is incredibly tough to
pick a winner, given the nature of predicting the breakaway group. In the
unlikely event that there is no breakaway winner and the leading GC contenders
contest the finish, Alejandro Valverde has to be the favourite.
It is worth keeping stakes pretty low on this stage, but I
have picked out a couple of selections. No match bets here given the
unpredictable nature of the stage.
Recommended Bets
Thomas Voeckler @ 13/2 (Bet365)
Thomas de Gendt @ 14/1 (Bet365)
Simon Clarke E/W @ 33/1 (Bet365)
Gorka Izagirre E/W @ 100/1 (Coral)
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