Tour de France Stage 8 Betting Preview
Cannondale rode Stage 7 to absolute perfection, dropping the
likes of Cavendish and Greipel, then delivering Peter Sagan to the ideal
position to take his first stage win of the race. In the process, it gave us a
fourth stage winner in seven stages.
However, Stage 8 is where the Tour really starts to pick up
as the riders head into the Pyrenees for the first of the mountain stages. For
the first 130km, the peloton meanders from Castres over a small category four
climb before the first true test of the Tour – the Col de Pailheres at 2,001m.
After this ascent, they descend down to 768m before the final climb to Ax 3
Domaines finishing at 1,375m.
Before we start looking at the contenders for the stage, we
need to look at the climbs in a little more detail. From the start of the first
climb at Axat, the riders ascend 1,575m along 35km. The start is a very gentle
section and it doesn’t really start to kick up until just after Usson Les Bains
where it goes up to around 9.5%. There is a short section at 11.1% around half
way up, but the final section is the real killer with around 1.5km at 10% and
0.5km at 12%. The second climb to Ax 3 Domaines is only around 10km, but it has
a nasty 10.5% section in the middle.
This will likely be a stage where Team Sky will dominate. We
have seen so many times over the past year or so how they set an unrelenting
pace on the front of the group and simply shed all their rivals. Rather than expending
energy chasing any attacks off the front, they just keep the pace up and reel
them back in. It will also shed any riders that cannot sustain such a
relentless pace leaving a pretty select group come the end of the stage.
If they stick with their usual tactics, we should see Boasson
Hagen, Kiryienka and Lopez setting the pace into the early section of the climb,
followed by Peter Kennaugh, then Richie Porte, eventually leaving Chris Froome
to do his thing at the end of the final climb. It may not be exciting viewing,
but it is awesomely effective.
Saxo-Tinkoff will also be at the front in force one would
imagine for Alberto Contador. In Roche, Rogers and Kreuziger, he has plenty of
strong teammates now the race has entered the mountains and it would be a
surprise were they to struggle in this stage.
Garmin have plenty of options, but they potentially have
quite a dilemma. Ryder Hesjedal is riding with a broken rib, so if he struggles
in this stage, they must decide whether to use domestiques to help him or
whether they concentrate on either Andrew Talansky or Dan Martin. Especially
given that they have already lost Christian Vande Velde through injury, they
cannot afford to make the wrong decision.
Movistar have Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana, but a
lot will depend on how Quintana is feeling having gone down three times in the
last two stages. If he is feeling well, it would be a surprise to see him
dropped, but I would not be surprised were Valverde to disappear before the
end.
Stage 8 should be a battle between Chris Froome and Alberto Contador |
Joaquim Rodriguez has been quiet so far, but has kept
himself out of trouble and he should have no real issues with this climb, while
BMC will be hoping that they can keep at least one of either Cadel Evans or
Tejay van Garderen in the leading group for as long as possible.
One interesting name to keep an eye on will be Andy Schleck. If he is anywhere close to his peak, he should not be dropped here, but it will be very interesting to see where he finishes.
So, I would expect to see a very elite group come the end of
the stage. The likely names include Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Joaquim
Rodriguez and probably some of Cadel Evans, Tejay van Garderen, Nairo Quintana,
Dan Martin and Richie Porte. Unlikely, but not surprising, names that could
find themselves involved are the likes of Bauke Mollema and Jakob Fulgsang,
plus possible the two Euskaltel riders, Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve.
It would be no surprise should one or two other riders
attack on the first climb in a bid to collect the mountain classification points,
but I would be very surprised if they were able to stay away. Obvious
contenders here are the likes of Pierre Rolland, Thomas Voeckler, Thomas de
Gendt, Thibaut Pinot, Simon Clarke and Rein Taaramae.
So, my prediction is that Chris Froome will win this. The
only thing to bear in mind though is whether Sky will want their man in yellow
this early in the Tour. However, they have shown before that they can defend it
over a long period, so I suspect they may want to strike the early blow.
Prediction
1. Froome
2. Contador
3. Rodriguez
4. Martin
5. Evans
Recommended Bets
1pt Chris Froome @ 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Mikel Nieve @ 40/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Rein Taaramae @ 200/1 (Bet Victor)
Recommended Match
Bets
5pt Alberto Contador to beat Alejandro Valverde @ Evens (Paddy
Power)
3pt Joaquim Rodriguez to beat Alejandro Valverde @ 2.11
(Pinnacle)
Taaramae in awful form .... waste of 0.25 pts.
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