World Swimming Championship Betting Preview - Day 5

Men's 200m Individual Medley

Ryan Lochte is the big favourite for this race, which is no real surprise given that he is the current world record holder and reigning World and Olympic champion. His 1:54.00 in the last World Championships in Shanghai is yet to be beaten, and although he has only swum a 1:55.44 this season, it is still the leading time in the world. He qualified fastest from the semi-final and looked to have plenty in hand. He only appeared to push on the breaststroke leg and his turn from the backstroke to breaststroke is worth a few tenth of a second over the field at least.

It would be a big surprise if Ryan Lochte does not win the gold medal

His closest challenger is likely to be the young Japanese swimmer, Kosuke Hagino, whose best time this year is 1:55.74, just 0.30 seconds behind Lochte. His strengths are the backstroke and butterfly and it would be no surprise to see him level with Lochte at the half-way stage, before the American pulls away during the breaststroke leg of the race. He qualified second fastest from the semi-finals and is certainly one to watch.

The third podium place should go to the experienced Laszlo Cseh. He is a former Olympic silver medallist in this discipline back in 2008 and one would expect him to find himself slightly behind at the half-way point, before he aims to close the gap on the breaststroke leg.

Their main challengers for the podium are likely to be the Brazilian, Thiago Pereira, and the Chinese swimmer, Shun Wang. Pereira is one of only four swimmers in the race to have gone sub 1:57.00 in the past couple of years, and while his best time this year is only 1:57.48, he should go quicker than that in this race. A finalist in the 2011 World Championships and 2012 Olympics, he should go well here. He has looked very easy so far and has eased up in both the heats and semi-finals to conserve energy.

Shun Wang has improved dramatically over the past year. A best time of 1:58.66 last year has been knocked down to 1:57.50 this season and should he swim that time again here, he could be an outside bet for a medal.

Odds

Ryan Lochte 1.14 (Paddy Power)

Kosuke Hagino 6.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Laszlo Cseh 11.0 (Paddy Power)

Thiago Pereira 17.0 (Paddy Power)

Shun Wang 67.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Daiya Seto 91.0 (Paddy Power)

Daniel Tranter 101.1 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Simon Sjodin 101.0 (Coral)

Prediction

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Kosuke Hagino

3. Thiago Pereira

Recommended Bets

No odds yet, but interested in Thiago Pereira Top 3 Finish

Men's 100m Freestyle

This should come down to a battle between the Olympic gold and silver medallists - Australia's James Magnussen and America's Nathan Adrian. The American beat Magnussen by 0.01 seconds to take the gold medal last year in London.

Magnussen is the fastest in the world this year and looked to be in top form as he set the fastest time in the heats. However, he was disappointing in the semi-final, finishing third equal in his semi and qualifying as the joint fourth fastest into the final. He does seem to have a bit of a mental block when it comes to going head-to-head with the American, so his chances may depend on where he is drawn for the final. If he is out in one of the outside lanes, he can focus on his own race. If my calculations are correct, he should be away from Adrian and the American will be out of his eyeline.

This should be a race between Nathan Adrian and James Magnussen

Nathan Adrian has been disappointing so far in these championships, but bounced back with a 47.95 to qualify fastest for the final. He looked very solid and very focused this evening and will be hoping to back up his Olympic gold medal with World Championship gold.

Vladimir Morozov is a pure out-and-out sprinter. He tied with Magnussen in the semi-final, but appears to be a little flat so far, as have many of the swimmers that competed in the World University Games in Kazan earlier this month. Whether it is fatigue or something else, he just hasn't quite seemed himself thus far.

Jimmy Feigen bounced back in great fashion, having received a lot of criticism for his final leg of the 4x100m freestyle relay on Day 1 when the Americans were brought back by the French at the death. He won the semi-final in a time of 48.07, showing great mental strength to overcome that earlier disappointment. Whether he can challenge for the gold is to be seen, but he is certainly one to keep an eye on.

Odds

James Magnussen 2.25 (Sky Bet)

Nathan Adrian 3.25 (Paddy Power)

Vladimir Morozov 6.0 (Coral)

Jimmy Feigen 7.0 (Sky Bet/Paddy Power)

Marcelo Chierighini 11.0 (Sky Bet/Paddy Power)

Fabien Gilot 13.0 (Paddy Power)

Cameron McEvoy 36.0 (Paddy Power)

Luca Dotto 67.0 (Sky Bet/Paddy Power/Coral)

Prediction

1. James Magnussen

2. Nathan Adrian

3. Vladimir Morozov

Recommended Bets

James Magnussen @ 2.25 (Sky Bet)

World Swimming Championship Betting Preview - Day 3

Women's 100m Backstroke

The Olympic champion, Missy Franklin, is the hot favourite in this race. Not only is she the gold medallist from London, she is also the fastest in the world this year dispelling any worries of a post-Olympic slump that can often affect athletes. I thought she might go for the world record in the semi-final, having cruised through her heat, but a slip on the start left her playing catch-up. Despite that, she flew through to set the fastest time in the semi-finals and go into the final as the top seed.

Missy Franklin will be eyeing a gold medal and the world record

She will have to be on top form to hold off the challenge of Olympic silver medallist, Emily Seebohm. The Australian was fastest through every round of qualifying in the Olympics last year, setting a new Olympic record in the process, but was just beaten in the final by the American. She is currently the third fastest in the world this year with 59.17, but if she can repeat the 58.23 that she swam in the heats last year, she has every chance of challenging Franklin here. She won her semi-final in 59.38 and will swim alongside Franklin as the second seed.

The third podium spot should be between Japanese swimmer, Aya Terakawa, who won the bronze at last year’s Olympics, and Frankin's teammate, Liz Pelton. While Terakawa does not necessarily have the speed to challenge the two front-runners, she is remarkably consistent at swimming very good, if not outstanding, times. She has the second fastest time in the world this year at 58.84, which compares with the 58.83 that she swam at the Olympics, so we would expect to see a time around this mark from her here. Pelton, is an outsider for a medal after her 59.27 in the US National Trials. She is the fourth quickest in the world and might fancy sneaking a medal if any of the top three are having a slight off-day.

Fu Yuanhui is the sixth fastest in the world, but the fastest over 50m. If she can get a good start, she will be looking to use that pure speed to keep herself in contention, but at just 17, there are questions over whether she is ready to seriously compete at these major championships. She finished second behind Franklin in the second semi-final, but was only the fifth fastest qualifier for the final.

Odds

Missy Franklin 1.20 (Coral)

Emily Seebohm 4.5 (Coral)

Liz Pelton 8.0 (Coral)

Aya Terakawa 17.0 (Coral)

Fu Yuanhui 21.0 (Coral)

Daryna Zevina 34.0 (Coral)

Simona Baumrtova 41.0 (Coral)

Belinda Hocking 51.0 (Coral)

Prediction

1. Missy Franklin

2. Emily Seebohm

3. Aya Terakawa

Recommended Bets

Missy Franklin @ 1.20 (Coral)

Men's 200m Freestyle

Ryan Lochte looks to be the man to beat in this event. Anyone following on Twitter would have seen me tip him up at 11/4 earlier today and he backed up this support in finishing second in his semi-final. Despite being beaten by Danila Izotov, he appeared very comfortable and certainly looked as though he could go faster. He may only have the sixth fastest time in the world this year, but the form of the other favourites means that he will fancy his chances of gold.

Danila Izotov is the top seed coming into this final after winning his heat in 1:45.84 and looks to be the closest challenger to Lochte. He won this event in the Summer Universiade earlier this month and seems to have brought his form into this. He may not be the most elegant swimmer, but he is very efficient and will fancy his chances of challenging for the gold medal.

Danila Izotov should be Lochte's closest challenger for the gold medal

Yannick Agnel came into this event as a strong favourite, but has not enjoyed a good World Championships so far. He had to battle hard to come through his heat in second place, but is only the fifth seed for the final and he did not look to have much extra in the semi-final. He may be the Olympic gold medallist and third fastest in the world this year, but it would be a surprise if he is involved in the fight for gold. Bronze may be his best hope here.

Kosuke Hagino showed again that he is incredibly fast in the final 50m as he went over half a second quicker than anyone else in the field. The key if he is to challenge for the gold medal is to ensure that he is within touching distance of Lochte and Izotov coming into the final length. Whether he can win the gold is unclear, but I certainly fancy him to finish ahead of Agnel and pick up at least a bronze medal.

Conor Dwyer, Thomas Fraser-Holmes, Robbie Renwick and Cameron McEvoy are the other four in the final, but it would be a surprise if they were to challenge for the gold medal. A good swim from one of them might challenge for bronze though.

Odds

Ryan Lochte 1.62 (Coral)

Danila Izotov 3.0 (Coral)

Yannick Agnel 9.0 (Coral)

Kosuke Hagino 13.0 (Coral)

Conor Dwyer 19.0 (Coral)

Thomas Fraser-Holmes 23.0 (Coral)

Robbie Renwick 23.0 (Coral)

Cameron McEvoy 26.0 (Coral)

Prediction

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Danila Izotov

3. Kosuke Hagino

Recommended Bets

No Recommended Bets (Ryan Lochte tipped at 3.75 on Twitter before semi-final)

Women's 1500m Freestyle

Katie Ledecky will win this race - the only real question is whether she can break the world record. She was the second fastest in qualifying, but she could easily take 0.1 seconds each 50m off that time. She already has one gold medal from the 400m and it would be a huge shock were she not to win a second here.

Katie Ledecky will be targeting the world record and a second gold medal
of these Championships

Her closest challenger will be Lotte Friis, who swam an excellent time today to qualify as the top seed for the final. It seemed as though she was testing herself against Ledeceky's likely time and she was quicker through the first half, but seemed to tire slightly toward the end. She will benefit from being alongside Ledecky tomorrow, but it would be a surprise if she can stay with the American teenager.

Outside of them, it comes down to who will win the bronze. Mireia Belmonte will have the support of the home crowd, but will have to fight against Lauren Boyle and Kristel Kobrich.

Odds

Katie Ledecky 1.08 (Sky Bet)

Lotte Friis 7.0 (Sky Bet)

Mireia Belmonte 17.0 (Sky Bet/Coral)

Lauren Boyle 21.0 (Sky Bet/Coral)

Kristel Kobrich 29.0 (Sky Bet/Coral)

Boglarka Kapas 51.0 (Coral)

Danlu Xu 81.0 (Coral)

Chloe Sutton 101.0 (Coral)

Recommended Bets

No Recommended Bets

Men's 100m Backstroke

This should be an interesting race as the French take on the Americans. Olympic champion, Matt Grevers, was unconvincing during his heat this morning, but came back strongly to qualify fastest for the final in a time of 52.97. As well as given him the top seeding for the final, it was the fastest time in the world this year.

His teammate, David Plummer, was the quickest in the heats and the second fastest in the semi-final. He had the quickest first 50m split of anyone in the semi-finals, but was brought back by Grevers in the second half of the race. He is the second seed and will race alongside Grevers in the gold lanes in the final, which will give him the opportunity to match his illustrious teammate.

Matt Grevers will be looking to hold off the French challenge and add to
his Olympic gold medal

The French challenge is led by Jeremy Stravius, who is the second fastest man in the world this year. He won his semi-final in 53.23 without looking too troubled, although he did have to push during the final few metres to hold off his compatriot, Camille Lacourt. Lacourt is the fifth seed for the final, although the defending world champion looks to have a lot to make up if he is to defend his title.

While the medallists are likely to come from those four, it would be dangerous to write off the Japanese pair of Ryosuke Irie and Kosuke Hagino. Irie is the fourth seed having come in behind the American pair in his semi-final, while Hagino will again depend on his fast second half of the race. Despite only being the sixth fastest qualifier, he had the fastest final 50m, so if he can start well and remain in touch, he could challenge late on.

Odds

Matt Grevers 1.91 (Coral)

Jeremy Stravius 2.38 (Coral)

David Plummer 6.0 (Coral)

Camille Lacourt 11.0 (Coral)

Ryosuke Irie 15.0 (Coral)

Kosuke Hagino 23.0 (Coral)

Ashley Delaney 26.0 (Coral)

Gareth Kean 67.0 (Coral)

Recommended Bets

Matt Grevers @ 1.91 (Coral)

(Jeremy Stravius tipped at 3.75 on Twitter before the semi-final)

Women's 100m Breaststroke

Ruta Meilutyte came close to breaking the world record in the heats, before coming back in the evening to break the record in her semi-final in a time of 1:04.35. She comfortably had the fastest reaction time, her first 50m was less than 0.2 seconds outside the 50m record and her final 50m was over 0.6 seconds quicker than her nearest rival. The only real question is whether she can break the record again in the final - if she can judge the finish better, there is every chance.

Ruta Meilutyte broke the world record in the semi-final and will fancy
her chances of lowering it further in the final

Yuliya Efimova swam very well to try and go with Meilutyte and will have been very happy with her time of 1:05.29. She looks a very good prospect for the silver medal, but it will need the Lithuanian to have a serious problem if Efimova has any chance of taking gold.

Jessica Hardy saw her world record broken earlier, but was only able to finish second in her heat. While she looked good, it is tough to see her getting close to Meilutyte, but she should be involved in a three-way fight for the minor medals with Efimova and Pedersen. Pedersen won her semi-final ahead of Hardy and will be looking to replicate that swim in the final. If she can, she will definitely clinch a medal.

Odds

Ruta Meilutyte 1.07 (Coral)

Yuliya Efimova 7.0 (Coral)

Jessica Hardy 9.0 (Coral)

Rikke Moeller Pedersen 15.0 (Coral)

Breeja Larson 51.0 (Coral)

Jennie Johansson 67.0 (Coral)

Viktoriya Solnceva 81.0 (Coral)

Marina Garcia Urzainqui 101.0 (Coral)

Prediction

1. Ruta Meilutyte

2. Yuliya Efimova

3. Jessica Hardy

Recommended Bets

No Recommended Bets

Follow @sportdw on Twitter for up to the minute analysis and recommended bets...

World Swimming Championship Betting Preview - Day 2 Women's Events

100m Butterfly

The defending Olympic champion and world record holder, Dana Vollmer, came through the heats with no problems, setting the second fastest time in the world this year in 57.22. She won her heat quite comfortably, but finished behind Ottesen Gray in the semi-final in 57.84. No swimmer has ever won the World title after winning the Olympic gold medal in this event, but the German will be hoping to change that statistic.

The third favourite is Alicia Coutts. She cruised in behind Vollmer in the heats in 57.56, but currently holds the second fastest time in the world this year at 57.18, suggesting she can comfortably go quicker than this. She was reasonably slow in the first 50m of her heat, but came through with the second quickest last 50m. She came in second in her semi-final as well behind Sjostrom in a time of 57.49.

Sarah Sjostrom has been the woman to beat during the heats and semi-final

Sarah Sjostrom was the second fastest in the heats with the third fastest time in the world this year. She had a reasonable first half, but it was the second half of her race that caught the eye as she came home in 30.16 for the last 50m, almost 0.35 seconds quicker than anyone else. She backed this up with the fastest time in the world this year in the semi-final with a 57.10.

Katerine Savard won her heat comfortably in a time of 57.31 – her quickest time of the year. She is in excellent form this year, although whether she can go much quicker than this remains to be seen. She will have been slightly disappointed with her 58.00 in the semi-final though. Even so, if she can replicate a similar time to her heat in the final, she might be an outside shout for a medal.

Jeanette Ottesen Gray qualified fifth fastest in the heat, but put in a brilliant time of 57.19 in the semi-final to set the third fastest time in the world this year and qualify second fastest for the final. If she can replicate that time in the final, she will certainly be challenging for the medals.

Odds

Sarah Sjostrom @ 2.88 (Paddy Power)
Dana Vollmer @ 3.5 (Coral)

Alicia Coutts @ 4.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Jeanette Ottesen Gray @ 4.5 (Paddy Power)

Katerine Savard @ 13.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Ilaria Bianchi @ 41.0 (Coral)

Claire Donahue @ 67.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Prediction

1. Alicia Coutts

2. Sarah Sjostrom

3. Dana Vollmer

Recommended Bets

No Recommended Bets

200m Individual Medley

Yi Shiwen was one of the stars of last year’s Olympics, winning both the 200m and 400m individual medley gold medals. She has only swum this event twice this year, but both have been sub-2:10.00, including a win over her closest rival, Alicia Coutts, at the BHP Billiton Super Series in January. She is the defending world and Olympic champion and showed her form by winning this event in the short course format. She swam the second quickest time in qualifying and looked to have plenty left to give.

Yi Shiwen is the Olympic champion and still the woman to beat

Alicia Coutts won the silver in both the Olympics and the last World Championships, and is currently the fastest woman in the world so far this year. However, her major problem is beating Shiwen and the more times the Chinese swimmer wins this head-to-head, the more the doubts will creep into Coutts’ mind. The other disadvantage is that she will already have swum the 100m Butterfly on the same night, so whether she can remain competitive in both events remains to be seen.

While it is almost inconceivable to imagine either of these two not to win the gold medal, there are plenty of other talented swimmers in the race. Katinka Hosszu was only just beaten by Shiwen in the short course 200m individual medley and has performed very consistently this season. She set the fastest time in the world this year in qualifying quickest, but I think that is close to her limit and her challengers have more to give.

The Olympic bronze medallist, Caitlin Leverenz, should be her closest challenger for the bronze medal here. Her current times compare favourable to where she was last year heading into the Olympics, and she will be hopefully of at least matching the third place from London. She finished second in her heat behind her teammate, Elizabeth Biesel, who set the fourth quickest time in qualifying.

Zsuzanna Jakabos is the fifth fastest in the world this year and has improved significantly since her seventh place finish in London last summer. She has taken over 1.5 seconds off her personal best and will be looking for a good performance here. The British pair of Sophie Allen and Siobhan-Marie O’Connor will probably be looking more at reaching the final, rather than competing for medals, while Spain’s Mireia Belmonte and Emily Seebohm are likely to be the two that they are challenging for spots in the final.

Odds

Yi Shiwen @ 1.8 (Coral)

Katinka Hosszu @ 2.25 (Paddy Power)

Alicia Coutts @ 6.5 (Paddy Power)

Mireia Belmonte @ 34.0 (Paddy Power)
Caitlin Leverenz @ 41.0 (Coral)

Emily Seebohm @ 41.0 (Coral)

Sophie Allen @ 51.0 (Paddy Power)
Zsuzanna Jakabos @ 81.0 (Coral)

Prediction

1. Yi Shiwen

2. Katinka Hosszu

3. Alicia Coutts

Recommended Bets

Yi Shiwen @ 1.8 (Coral)

World Swimming Championship Betting Preview - Day 1

The 2013 World Swimming Championships get underway tomorrow morning from Barcelona. Over the course of the eight days, there are no fewer than 34 individual events and we shall have previews, predictions and recommended bets for every single event. While heats and semi-finals may not be on the same day as the final, the previews will be posted the evening before the final of each event.

Sadly, there do not seem to be any firms that have each way terms in their markets, which is disappointing to see, but I will highlight any value each way bets in case anyone finds bookmakers offering this. Naturally, there will not be value bets in every single event - some events I will recommend no bet.

Sunday sees just two finals - the men's and women's 400m freestyle finals with the reigning Olympic champions both looking to continue their domination of their events, while there are up-and-coming young swimmers looking to knock them off their perch.

Men's 400m Freestyle

The 21-year old Chinese double gold medaliist, Sun Yang, is the overwhelming favourite to win this first men’s event of the championships. He came just 0.07 seconds away from the world record in winning gold in London in this event, beating the rest of the field by almost two seconds and he comes into Barcelona with the fastest time in the world. Despite his out-of-the-pool dramas, where he split with his long-time coach, reconciling with him and finding romance with an air stewardess, he is still in excellent shape and will be very focussed on taking three individual gold medals.

Sun Yang is the big favourite to win the men's 400m Freestyle

His closest challengers are likely to be the Australian pair of David McKeon and Jordan Harrison, his compatriot, Yun Hao, and the North American duo of Ryan Cochrane and Connor Jaeger.

David McKeon has the second fastest time this season, setting the third fastest time by an Australian ever in the Australian Nationals in Adelaide. He will have been very disappointed with his failure to reach the final in London, but since changing coach, he seems to have found some extra speed and will be a real threat to the podium. His compatriot, the 17-year old Jordan Harrison currently has the fourth fastest time this year and he is viewed as one of the real stars of Australian swimming. These championships could be a fraction too early for him, but it would be no surprise to see him in the final at least.

Yun Hao finished fourth in the Olympic final last summer and is the silver medallist in this event in the short course World Championships. He may only be the eighth quickest in the world this year, but he has performed in the big events before and his times suggest that he is in the same high condition as he was for the Olympics last season. He could be a real threat for the podium.

Ryan Cochrane was unfortunate in London last summer as he won his heat, but missed out on the final by 0.01 seconds. He eased to victory in the Canadian trials earlier this year and will be in peak condition coming into this event. I doubt that he can win this event, but a medal is certainly not out of the question if he swims close to his personal best time.

Connor Jaeger has the fifth fastest time this year set in the USA National Championships and has been performing well in the college events. He has set several personal bests already this year, but whether he can perform on the big stage and compete for the medals remains to be seen.

The hugely experienced Tunisian, Oussama Mellouli, is always dangerous and he is a former world silver medallist in this event. However, he is generally more of a threat in the longer distances, and although he may well challenge for a medal, he just doesn’t seem to have the form in this event right now to be a major threat.

Finally, Kosuke Hagino has the third fastest time in the world this year, although his attention may be focussed on some of his other events. He has improved his personal best several times this year though and is one of Japan’s most promising talents. It would be foolish to write him off, but as it is not necessarily his primary event, we must be careful.

ODDS

Sun Yang @ 1.20 (TAB)

David McKeon 10.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Oussama Mellouli 11.0 (Coral)

Kosuke Hagino 23.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Connor Jaeger 23.0 (Paddy Power/Coral/Sky Bet)

Gergo Kis 23.0 (Paddy Power/Coral/Sky Bet)

Ryan Cochrane 26.0 (Sky Bet)

Yun Hao 41.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Matt McLean 67.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Robbie Renwick 67.0 (Paddy Power/Coral)

Jordan Harrison 67.0 (Paddy Power/Coral/Sky Bet)

PREDICTION

1. Sun Yang

2. David McKeon

3. Yun Hao

RECOMMENDED BETS

NO BET (Jordan Harrison and Yun Hao if each way offered anywhere)

Women's 400m Freestyle

The reigning Olympic champion, Camille Muffat, will be optimistic of adding the World Championship gold medal to her collection. She has the fastest time in the world this year by 0.68 seconds and has swum sub-4:03.00 several times, while no other swimmer has gone under that mark this year. She showed her ability in the Olympic final last year, setting a new Olympic record of 4:01.45 and if she goes close to that, she will win gold here.

There are only two other swimmers in this race that competed in the Olympic final last year – Lauren Boyle and Lotte Friis. Lotte Friis finished fourth in the Olympic final last year in a new Danish record, but you feel that she is concentrating more on the longer distances at these Championships. She is only the eleventh fastest in the world this year with a time of 4:06.49 and while she has shown that she can go faster, I would be surprised if she is challenging for the title. She could certainly win a medal though.

Lauren Boyle is swimming well this year and is currently the fourth fastest this year with a time of 4:04.24. She pushed Muffat all the way in their last contest in Vichy, losing by just 0.15 seconds, and she comes into this event in excellent form. She made it to both the Olympic final and the 2011 World Championship final, so she will be hoping to really challenge for a medal this time though.

The real threat to Muffat is the American sensation, Katie Ledecky. She is the third fastest swimmer in the world this year with a 4:04.05 in the American trials. That is a personal best for her, and given the leaps in performance that she has shown over the past 18 months, it would be no surprise if she goes quicker than that in Barcelona. While she is competing in several other events, this is her first event, so fatigue should not be an issue and she is a real contender.

Katie Ledecky will be looking to spring the upset in her first event

The two other names to keep an eye on are Bronte Barratt and Jazmin Carlin. The two are second and fifth fastest in the world respectively, but whether they can go any faster than that in this event remains to be seen. Carlin, in particular, is in sparkling form this year and she will certainly be eyeing up a medal in this event, but there are plenty of challengers for those podium spots.

ODDS

Camille Muffat @ 1.91 (Coral)

Katie Ledecky @ 3.0 (Paddy Power)

Lauren Boyle @ 9.0 (Paddy Power)

Bronte Barratt @ 11.0 (Paddy Power)

Jazmin Carlin @ 13.0 (Paddy Power)

Mireia Belmonte @ 13.0 (Paddy Power)

Lotte Friis @ 34.0 (Paddy Power)

PREDICTION

1. Katie Ledecky

2. Camille Muffat

3. Lauren Boyle

RECOMMENDED BETS

Katie Ledecky @ 3.0 (Paddy Power)

The Spectre of Doping: Parallels Between Lance Armstrong and Usain Bolt

It is impossible to deny that the 14^th July was one of the darkest days in athletics for many years. During the afternoon, it was announced that Tyson Gay, the second fastest man in history, had failed a drugs test and would be withdrawing from the World Championships. That was shortly followed by the news out of Jamaican that Asafa Powell and Nesta Carter had also tested positive. In the space of a few hours, three of the five fastest men ever to run were revealed to have tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs.

Tyson Gay and Asafa Powell have both been revealed as having failed doping tests

It paints a dark picture of sprinting. No fewer than ninety sprinters have run 100m times below the magical mark of ten seconds. Sadly, no fewer than twenty-four of those ninety have failed a drugs test at some stage in their career. In other words, over 25% of those sprinters that have dipped under the ten second mark have tested positive during their career.

At the top end of the list, it gets far worse. Thirty sprinters have run sub 9.90 times in their careers. Thirteen of those have now failed drug tests. That works out at over 43% of sprinters sub 9.90 that have a doping record.

Of the nine fastest men in history, there are only two that have never failed a doping test – Usain Bolt and Maurice Greene. Tyson Gay, Yohan Blake, Asafa Powell, Nesta Carter, Tim Montgomery, Justin Gatlin and Steve Mullings have all tested positive.

In the face of this, one cannot help but feel somewhat suspicious of Usain Bolt. Do not get me wrong, I am not necessarily implying that Usain Bolt is doping. As much as anyone, I would be heartbroken if it were to come out at some stage that he had been – it would be the final nail in the coffin for sprinting.

However, it feels very similar to the Lance Armstrong situation. Can it be possible that a clean athlete, which of course it turned out Armstrong was certainly not, can be so superior to the next best sprinters, all of whom have been proven to have been using performance-enhancing drugs? For so long, the nearest challengers to Lance Armstrong were proven to have been systematically doping, yet the American constantly proclaimed his innocence. Finally, in an interview with Oprah, he admitted that he had been using performance-enhancing drugs throughout his career and that he felt a clean cyclist could not have won the Tour de France during that period.

Much as people would like to believe otherwise, the spotlight will be focused on Bolt now. Excluding the Jamaican, the only man in history to have run sub 9.8 seconds that has not tested positive is Maurice Greene, and there have been plenty of accusations levelled at him since his retirement that he was using performance-enhancing drugs. While nothing has ever been proven, there is rarely smoke without fire.

So, if we ignore those that have tested positive and Maurice Greene, given the intense speculation surrounding his history, the next fastest men that, to my knowledge, have never been linked with doping are the Canadian pair of Donovan Bailey and Bruny Surin. Their fastest-ever 100m time was 9.84 seconds – a full 0.26 seconds slower than Usain Bolt.

Of course, there are arguments that can be made that Usain Bolt is clean. He is a very unique build for a sprinter – his height, stride length and the power that he can generate are unlikely virtually any other sprinter in history. His progression in times as he has aged seems relatively believable, although the sudden drop in his personal bests between 2007 and 2008 are quite remarkable. Overall, there are convincing arguments that he might well be clean.

Five of the six fastest men in history have tested positive. Usain Bolt is the only one that hasn't

However, it would be a foolish person not to have any suspicions. For so many years, people believed the best about Lance Armstrong. There was virtually no suspicion on Asafa Powell and Tyson Gay. The latest revelations make it very difficult not to be sceptical about Usain Bolt.

This is not to say that all feats of sporting excellence must immediately beg the doping question. The first response to Chris Froome’s magnificent solo wins on Ax 3 Domaines and Mont Ventoux was to accuse both him and Team Sky of following in the footsteps of Lance Armstrong and the US Postal Team.

Some athletes really just are naturally superior. Each sport will have at least one outstanding leader in each generation. Usain Bolt could be that outstanding athlete. I would like to think so. However, only a fool would not question his achievements in the light of what has recently transpired.

Tour de France Stage 15 Betting Preview

As expected, the breakaway stayed away on Stage 14 with Matteo Trentin outsprinting Michael Albasini and Andrew Talansky to take the victory. The GC contenders and their teams happily sat back in the peloton to rest their legs.

However, the time for resting is well and truly over as the final week of the Tour begins with a monster stage. The longest stage of this year's Tour sees the peloton run for over 240km, but rather than the distance, it is the finish that is the highlight - a summit finish on the legendary Mont Ventoux. This is the ninth time that a stage has finished on the barren peak of Mont Ventoux. Most recently, in 2009, Juan Manuel Garate won from Tony Martin after Andy Schleck failed to attack without his brother.

The climb is 20.8km long with an average gradient of 7.5% with several sections of over 10%. The first 5km are relatively gentle at under 6%, but after that is when the first real steep section comes. It is expected to be a hot day, but wind is always an issue on Mont Ventoux and it will be blowing into the faces of the riders making it very difficult to go alone. The gradient kicks up again for the final section and any rider that has nothing left could easily lose time even this close to the finish.

Despite the time lost yesterday, Chris Froome still has a healthy lead in the general classification. His rivals will look to attack him repeatedly on this climb, especially if they can isolate him from his team again. However, he should have help from Lopez, Kennaugh and Porte, at least for the early part of the climb. It will also be incredibly tough for any of his rivals to drop Froome on this climb. He has already shown his ability this year and it is no surprise to see him as the favourite to win this stage.

If the likes of Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador or Bauke Mollema look to attack him on this stage, he will certainly look to chase it down. However, there are plenty of talented riders that will be desperate to win on this stage that he would probably allow to get away.

The first of these is Alejandro Valverde. The Spaniard will have been devastated that a broken wheel in Stage 13 cost him over ten minutes and ruined any hopes that he had of winning this Tour. It had been his main aim all season and he will be looking to salvage something. He is now over 12 minutes down on Chris Froome and he might be allowed to attack and stay away for the stage win. He has history on Mont Ventoux when he finished second behind Sylwester Szmyd in the 2009 Dauphine here, taking over the leader jersey. With his team concentrating on Quintana, he may have a free role to go for the win.

The two French riders that might fancy their chances are Pierre Rolland and Thibaut Pinot. Rolland is the current holder of the King of the Mountain jersey, although has picked up plenty of points on the smaller climbs during stages and has surprisingly struggled a bit on some of the climbs. Thibaut Pinot had a great race last year, but has been very disappointing so far. He was dropped early in the Pyrenees and is reportedly suffering from a sore throat, so it would be a real surprise were he to win here.

Dan Martin has already won a stage this year having attacked with Fuglsang on Stage 9 on La Hourquette d'Ancizan. He is an excellent climber and would love to win this stage, but at only five minutes down, there are questions over whether he would be allowed to go. I suspect he probably would, but there is enough doubt for me to hesitate to recommend him. The same arguments go for Jakob Fuglsang.

The Simpson memorial is a reminder of the brutality of Mont Ventoux

Andy Schleck is an interesting one. He has performed better than I expected in this Tour so far, staying with some of the big names on most of the climbs. At over eight minutes down, he is no threat to the GC, so if he were to attack, they would probably let him go. Although he is not close to the form he has shown in the past, he is still an excellent climber and cannot be discounted.

Mikel Nieve has also shown his climbing ability this Tour. He finished sixth in the stage to Ax 3 Domaines and stayed with the leading group the following day. Any hopes of a top 10 finish were surely dashed when he was caught out on Stage 13 finishing in the Valverde group and losing over 10 minutes. Coming into the Tour, he said that he was targeting a stage victory and with the team likely looking for new sponsorship, this would be the ideal time to put them in the spotlight.

Another possible name to watch is Thomas de Gendt. He had a nightmare first week that put him out of contention for a top 10 finish, but he is a talented climber. A second place in the summit finish of Cuitu Negru in last year's Vuelta and victory in the Giro stage to Passo dello Stelvio are excellent demonstrations of what he can do. With Vacansoleil inexplicably missing the breakaway today, they will be desperate to get involved tomorrow.

Chris Froome is rightfully the favourite for this stage, but with a seemingly weak team, his focus will be defending his jersey rather than going for the stage win. This could be mean that one of the climbers further down the GC might be allowed to take the prestige of a stage win on top of Mont Ventoux. At the moment, there are no match bets that catch the eye, but I may add some in the morning once more firms go up with them.

Prediction

1. Chris Froome
2. Nairo Quintana
3. Bauke Mollema
4. Alberto Contador
5. Alejandro Valverde

Recommended Bets

Alejandro Valverde @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Mikel Nieve E/W @ 33/1 (Sky Bet)
Thomas de Gendt @ 50/1 (Paddy Power)

Tour de France Stage 14 Betting Preview

Stage 13 was meant to be a simple sprint stage. 150km or so or fairly dreary racing with the likes of Argos Shimano, Lotto-Belisol and Omega Pharma Quick-Step upping the pace into the finish for the sprinters to go at it. Instead, crosswinds caused huge splits in the peloton and turned the stage into a captivating race.

When all was said and done, Alberto Contador, Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam had taken over a minutes out of Chris Froome, who was left without teammates again, while Alejandro Valverde lost over seven minutes and his hopes of even a top 10 finish look to have disappeared.

In a normal Tour, Stage 14 should be one for a breakaway while the rest of the teams recuperate ready for the Alps. However, this has hardly been a normal Tour. Despite this, it seems likely that the only way this does not end in a breakaway win is if Cannondale put in a huge effort to bring it back for Peter Sagan. There are seven categorised climbs and it would be a real surprise if the likes of Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel were not dropped, but whether Cannondale have enough energy left to bring back a break on their own is debatable.

The other option is that Peter Sagan might look to get into the breakaway itself. While few teams would aim to bring him back, the breakaway riders themselves would probably rather not have Sagan in there given that they will be eyeing stage victories.

So, who are we looking at for potential contenders?

The usual suspects are all there. Thomas Voeckler, the four-time Tour de France stage winner, will undoubtedly look to get involved, having saved plenty of energy today. Pierrick Fedrigo won a stage last year and will be looking to win another; Thomas de Gendt has been busy in breakaways so far and might relish the chance to pick up some mountains points; Jan Bakelants has already won a stage this year and looks to be in excellent condition; Sylvain Chavanel always relishes this type of stage.

Really, there are so many possible candidates for the breakaway that it will be very tough to pick the actual riders. Looking through some teams that should get involved, Lotto-Belisol have Lars Bak, BMC will look toward Philippe Gilbert, Astana to Alexay Lutsenko, Garmin to Ramunas Navardauskas, FDJ to Jeremy Roy, Radioshack to Jens Voigt. The list goes on.

In such a tricky stage, I would suggest to keep your money safe and just hang back and wait for the real mountain stages to get going over the weekend. In these situations, the best bet is no bet.

Recommended Bets

No Bet

Discrepancies between Match and Outright Betting Markets

Betting on the outright markets in tennis can often prove a profitable source of income. While you are unlikely to hit regular winners, the bigger odds that come from putting your money into this market can prove very profitable in the long run.

In this article, rather than looking directly at how to find the winner in this market, we are going to look more closely at some discrepancies between the outright markets and the match winner markets. As we shall see, these discrepancies are clear indicators that there is value in one of the two markets – whether it is the match winner market or the outright market can be questioned, but in deciding which of the two markets is wrong is a first set to profitable betting.

The outright winner market is fairly simple. The price simply reflects the probability of each player winning the tournament, which in itself simply reflects the multiple of the player to win each round of the tournament. The number of rounds depends on the tournament and can range from just four, where the player is seeded in a minor tournament with a bye into the second round, up to seven in a Grand Slam tournament.

Logically, if two players are playing each other in a match, the player that is favourite to win the match should be shorter odds in the betting to win the tournament. There are very few situations where you can make the argument that a player is the outsider for the match, but is a shorter price to win the whole tournament.

As our first example, we will look at the match between Juan Monaco and Grigor Dimitrov in the Bastad quarter-final. The winner of the match would likely play either Nicolas Almagro or Fernando Verdasco in the semi-final and Tomas Berdych in the final.

As we can see, Juan Monaco is available at a general price of 1/2 with all the bookmakers currently offering the match with the exception of Paddy Power. Grigor Dimitrov is available at a range of prices between 5/4 and 13/8. In other words, Juan Monaco is a clear favourite for this match.

However, if we look at the outright market, there is an interesting difference here. Rather than Juan Monaco being a clear shorter price than Grigor Dimitrov, we can see that in most places he is only fractionally shorter than Dimitrov and, indeed, with Betfred, Dimitrov is a shorter price at 7/1 compared to the 15/2 for Juan Monaco.

Based on these prices, we can reasonably work forward to determine how they should be priced depending on who wins the match. Taking Juan Monaco’s general price of 7.0 for the tournament and 1.5 for the match, we can suggest that his price should he win this match should be around 4.67 to win the tournament. Similarly, taking Dimitrov’s price as 7.5 and 2.5, he should shorten to around 3.0 for the title.

Already here we can see a discrepancy. The fact that Juan Monaco is favourite for this match suggests that the market feels that Monaco is the better player. However, the outright prices seem to suggest that Dimitrov will shorten to a much shorter price than Monaco if he wins the match.

Unless we believe that Dimitrov is around 12% more likely to win the tournament from the semi-final stage than Monaco is, then either Monaco is too short for the match, Monaco is too big in the outright market or Dimitrov is far too short in the outright market.

If the prices in the outright market are correct, then Dimitrov would appear to be value in the match winner market. Similarly, if the match winner market is correct, then either Juan Monaco is too big in the outright winner, Grigor Dimitrov is too short, or a combination of the two.

The next example comes from the ATP tournament in Stuttgart. In the quarter-final match between Gael Monfils and Philipp Kohlschreiber, we can see that the market fancies the Frenchman. He is available at prices between 4/9 and 8/15 to win the match, while Philipp Kohlschreiber ranges from 11/8 up to 7/4. In other words, Gael Monfils is a pretty strong favourite for this match.

However, the outright seems to suggest something very different. Both Bet365 and Betfred have the two players at exactly the same price, while Paddy Power have Kohlschreiber at a shorter price than Monfils. Stan James is the only company where Monfils is a shorter price than Kohlschreiber. Even Betfair has the Frenchman at bigger odds.

Based on the match odds and the outright odds, we can say that if Kohlschreiber wins, he would shorten to around 2.10, while Gael Monfils would shorten to around 3.67. In other words, it suggests that Kohlschreiber would have a 20% greater chance of going on and winning the tournament than Monfils would.

Based on the fact that the market is suggesting that Monfils is a reasonably strong favourite to beat the German, it is tough to reconcile this with the fact that Kohlschreiber would be much shorter prices in his semi-final and final than Monfils would be.

Again, this either suggests that Monfils is either too short in the match winner market, too big in the outright market or that Kohlschreiber is too short in the outright market. Whichever of these that we feel is true, we can either back or lay our conclusions.

It is not just on the men’s side that we see these discrepancies. In this example, we can see another clear difference in the ladies tournament from Budapest. Here, we have a second round match between Danka Kovinic and Valeria Solovyeva. Despite a surprise win over the top seed, Lucie Safarova, in the first round, Valeria Solovyeva is still available at a best price of 7/4 to win this match with an average price of around 6/4. Similarly, Kovinic is available at prices ranging from 4/9 to 8/15. Again, Kovinic is clearly a strong favourite for this match.

Once again, the outright market does not reflect this. Valeria Solovyeva is available at between 66/1 at Coral up to 100/1 at various firms. Danka Kovinic is available at either 100/1 or 150/1. Admittedly, at these bigger prices there is often no value, given that the bookmakers usually have maximum odds that they will offer in this market, while the true price is often far higher, but this still does not make much sense.

Just looking at the Coral prices, they go 8/15 Kovinic and 11/8 Solovyeva to win the match, yet Solovyeva is just 66/1 for the title, while Kovinic is 100/1. Unless we expect Solovyeva to be a much shorter price in her later matches, which there is no reason to believe, particularly given that she is an outsider here, then these prices are simply not right.

Clearly, we cannot always take advantage of these discrepancies. We can only lay selections on Betfair and there is often not the liquidity on the smaller tournaments. However, it is clear that there are often selections in the outright market with the bookmakers that are far too big and provide good value.

Tour de France Stage 12 Betting Preview

As expected, Stage 11 was won by Tony Martin, but arguably it was Chris Froome that put in the most impressive performance, finishing just 12 seconds behind the German. It means that he now leads by 3 minutes 25 seconds ahead of Alejandro Valverde with a further 12 seconds back to Bauke Mollema.

Stage 12 is another designed for the sprinters, and once again, it will come down to a battle between the three power sprinters - Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel. Without a single categorised climb, it is unlikely to be a particularly exciting stage. The intermediate sprint and the finish are likely to be the only two real periods of any interest.

The finish here is probably the most difficult of any of the sprint stages so far with two 90 degree bends in the final kilometer. The first comes with around 650m to go and the second just 200m later. This means that it will be tough for teams to get a proper organised sprint train going and it also means that positioning through these bends will be crucial. Whoever comes through that final corner in the ideal position should win this.

Mark Cavendish was frustrated with his leadout in Stage 10 and has had a disappointing Tour so far. He was involved in an incident with Tom Veelers in that stage, which stemmed from the disorganised train that did not allow him to get into the correct position. He was also, rightly, left angry after today's stage when some idiot sprayed urine at him during the time trial. If he can channel this anger and frustration into his finish tomorrow, he will be tough to beat.

Andre Greipel and Lotto-Belisol have probably had the best leadout train so far in the race and he would have been disappointed not to have won Stage 10 after he found himself in the ideal position. However, Marcel Kittel came off his wheel to pip him on the line and both the two Germans will be hoping to add another stage win. In Greg Henderson, Greipel has one of the best leadout men in the peloton and if the Kiwi can deliver him through the final corner, he will fancy his chances. Kittel has also proved that he belongs with the big boys with two stage wins so far, and a third would cap off a wonderful Tour.

Peter Sagan has been very consistent so far and this finish could suit him

Peter Sagan has been ultra-consistent so far with six top-4 finishes. While he may not have the outright pace to challenge the pure sprinters, his excellent bike-handling skills have managed to keep him out of trouble, and with the worries that the two bends may cause chaos at the front, his ability to avoid these incidents could stand him in good stead.

The same outsiders will be in the mix with the likes of Alexander Kristoff, Danny van Poppel and Edvald Boasson Hagen and being involved. The experience of Matt Goss could be a positive in this tough finish and, while he may not have the pace to win, he could certainly be an outsider for a podium place.

In my opinion, this tricky finish strongly favours Mark Cavendish and Peter Sagan, who are more able to win without the perfect leadout, as opposed to the German pair. As a result, my recommended bets reflect this. It is also the first pure sprint stage where Mark Cavendish has drifted to odds-against, which is always a risky approach.

Prediction

1. Mark Cavendish
2. Peter Sagan
3. Andre Greipel
4. Matt Goss
5. Marcel Kittel

Recommended Bets

Mark Cavendish @ 11/8 (Paddy Power)
Peter Sagan @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Matt Goss to finish Top 3 @ 8/1 (Sporting Bet)

Recommended Match Bets

Matt Goss to beat Alexander Kristoff @ 6/4 (Paddy Power)
Peter Sagan to beat Andre Greipel @ 3.27 (Pinnacle)
Peter Sagan to beat Marcel Kittel @ 7/4 (Paddy Power)

Tour de France Stage 11 Betting Preview

Stage 10 saw Marcel Kittel take his second victory of the Tour as he came from behind to pip Andre Greipel on the line. Mark Cavendish was a distant third and received more attention for his role in a crash as the sprinters approached the final bend.

Stage 11 is the first individual time trial of the race so far and should see some more shake-ups in the general classification. In terms of the actual stage, it is 33km long, starting in Avranches. While it is not perfectly flat, the very small climbs and descents shouldn't really have much of an impact, so we are looking at the big power riders in the peloton when it comes to finding the winner of this stage.

There is one standout favourite for this stage - the two-time time trial world champion, Tony Martin. In the absence of Fabian Cancellara and Bradley Wiggins, it is tough to really see anyone challenging the German for the stage win here. While he was involved in a nasty crash in Stage 1, he proved that there were no issues as he put in a mammoth shift for his team in the team time-trial to almost power them to victory. To be honest, anything other than a Tony Martin win would be a huge upset and he is the shortest priced favourite of this race so far at a top price of just 8/15.

So, really we are looking at the men that are likely to finish behind him. The first obvious candidate is the yellow jersey of Chris Froome. He has looked supremely confident so far, both in leaving all his challengers in his wake in Stage 8, then individually closing down any attacks in Stage 9. A bronze medal in the Olympic time-trial event last year showed his ability and he has finished in the top 7 in every time-trial this year. He will almost certainly extend his lead at the top of the classification, but I am not convinced that he can beat Tony Martin, particularly after those tough mountain stages.

Omega Pharma Quick-Step showed their time-trialling ability earlier in the race and it was not simply down to Tony Martin. In Michal Kwiatkowski and Sylvain Chavanel, they have two more riders that will certainly be challenging for a place in the top 5, and possibly even on the podium. The Pole has been in sparkling form so far in this Tour and will be looking for his sixth top 4 result.

Orica GreenEdge were the surprise winners of the team time-trial earlier in the race and this was much helped by a magnificent performance by the big Canadian, Svein Tuft. He is a former silver medalist in the World Championships time-trial and he has already won two time-trials this season, albeit not against the very best riders. However, morale in the team is sky-high and Tuft will be eyeing up a podium place.

It is tough to see anyone stopping Tony Martin from winning this stage

While Movistar will be hoping that Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana can limit their losses to Froome, they will also be hoping for a good showing from Jonathan Castroviejo, who has four top-5 time-trial results already this season, including the Spanish championships. While it would be a major shock if he were to win it, a top-5 place is certainly within his grasp.

Other possible contenders for the top 5 might include Team Sky's Richie Porte, Orica GreenEdge's Cameron Meyer, Vacansoleil's Lieuwe Westra and BMC's Tejay van Garderen, who will be desperately trying to find any positive to take from this Tour.

With such a strong favourite, it is tough to find many appealing bets. However, as much as I believe Tony Martin will win, there are enough things that could go wrong to avoid taking him at the current price. We will take just the one in the outright and will hopefully focus more on some of the match bets.
Prediction

1. Tony Martin
2. Svein Tuft
3. Chris Froome
4. Michal Kwiatkowski
5. Sylvain Chavanel

Recommended Bets

Svein Tuft @ 33/1 (Sporting Bet)

Recommended Match Bets

Jonathan Castroviejo to beat Richie Porte @ Evens (Paddy Power)
Roman Kreuziger to beat Alberto Contador @ 19/20 (Sporting Bet)

Tour de France Stage 10 Betting Preview

Stage 9 turned into a far more exciting stage than expected, whilst still managing to disappoint slightly by the end. Most expected a quiet stage that would be won by a breakaway. However, Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff were having none of it, managing to isolate Chris Froome on the first climb. Sadly though, they were not able to take advantage with seemingly neither Valverde or Contador having the energy to really attack Froome on the final climb.

Moving onto Stage 10 and it should be one for the sprinters. With just one small category 4 climb, it would be a major surprise were anyone to get dropped and it is tough to see the sprinters not competing for the stage win. Team Sky are likely to take it easy and let the sprint teams close down any breakaway in this stage.

The finish is very straightforward with no corners within the final 5km, it is unlikely to cause any problems. A strong tailwind should mean that the pace is very high, so having your lead-out train in the perfect position will be important. If delivered to the perfect position, any of the trio of leading contenders - Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel - are very tough to beat.

The breakaway should get away early, but it would be a real surprise should it stay away. One might imagine that Team Sky would be happy to let it stay away and for someone to take over the yellow jersey until the next mountain stages, but it is tough to see the likes of Lotto-Belisol, Argos-Shimano and Omega Pharma Quick-Step allowing that to happen. It would be no surprise to see the likes of Juan Antonio Flecha, Ramunas Navardauskas or Anthony Delaplace in that breakaway.

In the last sprint stage, Lotto-Belisol judged their delivery of Andre Greipel to perfection and the German hung on for the win. Arguably Argos-Shimano have the best lead-out train in the race right now, so if they can deliver Kittel to the ideal spot, he should win. And Mark Cavendish is the fastest man in the peloton, so if he gets ahead, he will be impossible to catch.

Mark Cavendish will be looking for his second stage win of the race

With the importance of position in this stage, it is tough to see a winner from outside this trio. The tailwind will help any sprinter that attempts to go from a longer distance, but it will require a massive effort to achieve this. Whether the likes of Sagan, Boasson Hagen, Kristoff, van Poppel or Lobato are capable of this is debatable.

As with the next couple of stages, it should be a showdown between Greipel, Kittel and Cavendish, with Sagan popping up occasionally to grab some points toward the green jersey that now looks nailed on to finish on the shoulders of the Slovak. I fancy Cavendish to win it with Greipel and Kittel pretty evenly matched for second, possibly with the merest of edges to the Lotto-Belisol man.

Prediction

1. Mark Cavendish
2. Andre Greipel
3. Marcel Kittel
4. Peter Sagan
5. Danny van Poppel

Recommended Bets

Mark Cavendish @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)

Recommended Match Bets

Marcel Kittel to beat Andre Greipel @ 2.72 (Pinnacle)