Stage 1 was as chaotic a stage as we are likely to see this
year. With the Orica GreenEdge bus getting stuck at the finish line causing the
finish to be moved to the 3km to go mark, then restored to the original finish
line, combined with a huge crash that took out most of the favourites for the
stage, there are a number of disgruntled and battered riders taking to the
start for stage 2.
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| A large crash caused chaos in the first stage |
Stage 2 sees the riders depart Bastia and head for Corsica’s
biggest town, Ajaccio. With three categorised climbs in the middle of the
stage, it will be tough for the pure sprinters and those teams with sprinters
more suited to this type of lumpy stage will look to set a high pace to try and
drop the likes of Mark Cavendish. The final categorised climb comes just 13km
from the finish, and although it is a short climb, it has an average gradient
of 8.9%. Most of the sprinters should hang on, or be able to get back into the
peloton after the first series of climbs, but this is where Cannondale and the
likes will try to finally shed the pure sprinters.
The clear favourite for this stage is Peter Sagan. It is the
type of stage that he has won countless times over the past couple of years. It
is a key stage for him if he wants the green jersey, particularly given
Cavendish’s failure yesterday, and it would also likely put him into the yellow
jersey as well. If Cannondale can drop the likes of Cavendish, it should be
Sagan’s stage to lose. The only worry is his condition after going down hard in
the big crash yesterday.
Argos-Shimano enjoyed the stage win yesterday with Marcel
Kittel, but they will be targeting this stage with their other sprinter, John
Degenkolb. He is more than capable of making it over the climbs and he
certainly has the speed to threaten Sagan. Whether he can beat him in an
out-and-out sprint remains to be seen, but if his team can deliver him in the
perfect position, he will be there or there abouts at the finish.
However, there are a number of other sprinters that could
well find themselves in the mix. The Australian, Matt Goss, will certainly make
it in the final group, and he has proven in the past that he can beat the top
sprinters, although not necessarily on a regular basis. However, in this stage,
he will undoubtedly be a real threat.
Looking at a few other names that could be contesting the
group sprint, there are a few to keep an eye on. Aleksander Kristoff should be
involved, having finished second in the first stage, and he has enjoyed some
good results this year, while Team Sky might eye a stage win for Edvald Boasson
Hagen if the opportunity presents itself. Ramunas Navardauskas enjoyed some
excellent results in this type of stage in the Giro d’Italia for Garmin and
could be a dark horse for this stage, although he lacks any real lead-out
train.
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| Ramunas Navardauskas enjoyed a good Giro and could threaten on this stage |
Francesco Gavazzi has been pretty consistent this season
with a host of good finishes. He managed to avoid the crash yesterday, and is
certainly capable of tackling the climbs today. While he is certainly not a
favourite for this stage, he could well find himself close to the podium.
Normally, someone like Tony Gallopin would be worth keeping
an eye on, but he went down hard in the crash yesterday and is supposedly in
quite a bit of pain, so instead, French hopes might be resting on the shoulders
of Arthur Vichot and Samuel Dumoulin.
There is also the possibility, albeit relatively remote,
that OPQS can keep Mark Cavendish in the peloton for the finish. He has
improved his climbing ability this season, as shown in the Milan-San Remo
event, and he will be desperate to make up for the disappointment of yesterday.
With so many injured doubts, it is tough to pick real value
in the outright market here. We will look to back a couple of riders at larger
odds, but mainly focus on some match bets.
Prediction
1. Sagan
2. Degenkolb
3. Kristoff
4. Gavazzi
5. Navardauskas
Recommended Bets
Francesco Gavazzi @ 66/1 (Paddy Power)
Ramunas Navardauskas @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes)
Matt Goss @ 50/1 (Sporting Bet)
Recommended Match
Bets
Ramunas Navardauskas to beat Philippe Gilbert @ 2.22
(Pinnacle)
Michael Albasini to beat Jonathan Hivert @ 2.97 (Pinnacle)
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