Saturday, 11 May 2013

Giro d'Italia Stage 8 Preview

A dramatic and wet descent on Stage 7 saw, first, Vincenzo Nibali attack, then crash, and then Bradley Wiggins come a cropper on a tight hairpin bend. In the end, Wiggins lost over a minute on his contenders, making today's time-trial all the more important.

Giro d'Italia Stage 8

This brutal 55km time-trial will open up some gaps in the general classification. It is long, relatively technical and the ramp in the final 3km will cause plenty of problems for tired riders.

If Bradley Wiggins does not win this, it will be a huge shock. If he does not win this by at least two minutes over his GC challengers, it will be a surprise. The only man in the field that stands a chance of coming close to him is the American, Tyler Phinney, who ran Tony Martin close in the World Championships last year. However, he is supposedly having problems with hayfever, so might struggle.

It will be a huge surprise if Bradley Wiggins does not
win the time-trial

More interesting is the third podium place. There are plenty of contenders for this. The two Orica GreenEdge riders, Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, will both fancy their chances, particularly the former, despite his poor performance in important time-trials last year. Benat Intxausti has the pressure of being in the Maglia Rosa and will need to put in a good performance, while his teammate Alex Dowsett, is a very good time-trialler.

Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal are all very solid time-triallers and will be looking for the ride of their life to limit the losses to Wiggins. Whether they can sneak a podium place against the specialist time-triallers remains to be seen, but I would expect Hesjedal to overtake Nibali in the overall GC, given he has just two seconds to make up, and for me, is a better time-trialler.

The other two riders that finished in the top 10 in the World Championship time trial competing here are Frederik Kessiakoff and Dmitriy Gruzdev. Kessiakoff has had some excellent and under-appreciated rides in time trials recently, while Gruzdev put in a wonderful performance to finish 6th in the World Championships.

Prediction

1. Wiggins
2. Phinney
3. Kessiakoff
4. Evans
5. Hesjedal

Recommended Bets

Bradley Wiggins @ 4/9
Frederik Kessiakoff Top 3 @ 7/2
Ryder Hesjedal to beat Vincenzo Nibali @ 17/20
Dmitriy Gruzdev to beat Tanel Kangert @ 2/1
Frederik Kessiakoff to beat Manuele Boaro @ 5/7

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