After the unexpected action from the overall contenders on
Stage 3, there was no chance for the likes of Bouhanni and Nizzolo to make it
to the end to contest the finish. Stage 4 will be all about the GC contenders
again it would seem.
A long 190km flat section before the stage really gets
underway should see a breakaway going away. However, there is again little
chance of it staying away as the stage really starts with the climb up Vibo
Valentina with an average gradient of around 6% for the majority of the climb.
After that, the final climb up Croce Ferrata, the category 2 climb that
averages 5.6%, but rises to over 10% at times. With just 6.7km, it would be
possible for a small group could stay away over the top down to the finish at
Serra San Bruno.
So, that moves us onto looking at the potential winners of
this stage. After Team Sky struggled to control the race in Stage 3, it would
seem likely that their rivals will attack again either on the Vibo Valentina,
or more likely, on the Croce Ferrata. Ryder Hesjedal attacked both on the
ascent and the descent in Stage 3 showing his form and, given his post-race
comments, it would be no surprise to see him go again.
 |
| Mauro Santambrogio is the favourite to win Stage 4 |
Among the other contenders that might fancy going for it are
the Italian trio of Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio and Michele Scarponi.
Nibali and Santambrogio both looked in good form in Stage 3, while Scarponi was
in contention until a crash forced him to wait for a new bike, losing him
plenty of time. While the likes of Evans and Wiggins should be in the final
reckoning, it would be a surprise were they to actually win the stage itself, although
the bonus seconds available to the first few places will tempt the leading
riders to try and outdo their rivals on the line.
The climbers will also be eyeing up a stage win. Carlos
Betancur is strongly fancied to do well in this Giro and he has been in
excellent form in recent months. He is excellent on the climbs and will know
that he has a chance for a victory here. The likes of Stefano Pirazzi, Stefano
Garzelli, Matteo Rabottini, Domenico Pozzovivo and Giovanni Visconti are all
eyeing up the King of the Mountains jersey, so might look to attack to take the
points at the top of Croce Ferrata and potentially the stage win.
 |
| Stefano Pirazzi will fancy his chances for a stage win and points toward the King of the Mountain competition |
Mauro Santambrogio is the favourite in the betting and with
good reason. He is one of the best climbers in the field and is certainly one
of the fastest finishers of the group that is likely to contest the stage win. Surprisingly, the bookmakers seem to make Cadel Evans the second favourite and
I would certainly not be touching him at these odds. While he might fancy
trying to contest a sprint finish for the bonus seconds, I am not convinced
that he will be winning this stage. He is closely followed by Hesjedal, Sanchez
and Nibali which makes sense.
If a group reaches the finish, Santambrogio should win this.
He will be the fastest finisher of the group and wants a stage win in this
Giro. However, there is every chance that one of the Italian KOTM contenders
could attack alone, and given they are already well down on the GC, they may
well be allowed to go away and win the stage. The recommended bets reflect
this.
Prediction
1. Stefano Pirazzi
2. Mauro Santambrogio
3. Ryder Hesjedal
4. Cadel Evans
5. Vincenzo Nibali
Recommended Bets
Mauro Santambrogio @ 6/1
Stefano Pirazzi E/W @ 33/1
Stefano Garzelli E/W @ 33/1
Domenico Pozzovivo E/W @ 66/1
No comments:
Post a Comment