Ajax and de Boer: Maximising Their Late Season Advantage

When reading an excellent article concerning Frank de Boer at Ajax, there was one particular paragraph that I found particularly interesting:

"His players towards the end of the season are just as fit as they were at the start, albeit covering more ground, circulating the ball at a rapid rate. This is largely down to a training program designed to have them at their optimum best in the final months... This method coupled with the slow progress of re-building after losing key personnel in the summer, plus a young squad playing three games in a week, has unsurprisingly impacted on their form between August and December."

As a long season progresses, many teams find that they begin to drop away - the good form of the early months of the season a distant memory. We can think of countless examples of teams collapsing in the closing stretch of a season, missing out on European qualification or plummeting into the relegation dogfight. Aston Villa under Martin O'Neill were an excellent example. Playing with such a small core of players, fatigue and injuries took their toll - in his four years at Villa, he won just one game in March. Each year, this poor run late in the season cost the club a potential Champions League challenge.

Far fewer are the examples of teams finishing the season more strongly than they began. However, under Frank de Boer, Ajax have been a remarkable example. He joined the club as manager in December 2010 following the resignation of his predecessor, Martin Jol. Over the course of his nearly three seasons at the club, we can compare Ajax's record between the start of the season and the 28th February, and the 1st March until the end of the season:

2012/13 Season

Pre-March

Played 24, Won 13, Drawn 9, Lost 2, Goals Scored 54, Goals Conceded 25, Points 48

Goals Scored per game – 2.25

Goals Conceded per game – 1.04

Points per game – 2.00

March Onwards

Played 10, Won 9, Drawn 1, Lost 0, Goals Scored 29, Goals Conceded 6, Points 28

Goals Scored per game – 2.90

Goals Conceded per game – 0.60

Points per game – 2.80

2011/12 Season

Pre-March

Played 23, Won 12, Drawn 7, Lost 4, Goals Scored 59, Goals Conceded 32, Points 43

Goals Scored per game – 2.57

Goals Conceded per game – 1.39

Points per game – 1.87

March Onwards

Played 11, Won 11, Drawn 0, Lost 0, Goals Scored 34, Goals Conceded 4, Points 33

Goals Scored per game – 3.09

Goals Conceded per game – 1.36

Points per game – 3.00

2010/11 Season

Pre-March

Played 25, Won 14, Drawn 7, Lost 4, Goals Scored 47, Goals Conceded 22, Points 49

Goals Scored per game – 1.88

Goals Conceded per game – 0.88

Points per game – 1.96

March Onwards

Played 9, Won 8, Drawn 0, Lost 1, Goals Scored 25, Goals Conceded 8, Points 24

Goals Scored per game – 2.78

Goals Conceded per game – 0.89

Points per game – 2.67

Each season, we can see the improvement in the team's performance entering the closing months of the season. In his first season, the goals conceded per game remained constant, while they scored an additional 0.90 goals per game, increasing the average points per game from 1.96 to 2.67. In each of the past two seasons, they have conceded fewer goals and scored more goals in each game in the period from March onwards.

Indeed, since Frank de Boer took over, his record in the period from the start of March until the end of the season reads:

Played 30, Won 28, Drawn 1, Lost 1, Goals Scored 88, Goals Conceded 18, Points 85

It is these repeated strong finishes that have taken Ajax to three straight titles under the stewardship of Frank de Boer. It also raises the interesting question of whether his training regime, based around bringing his players to peak condition around the start of March, is an ideal plan.

At the end of the season, other teams are beginning to tire, have little to play for and find that niggling injuries are beginning to take their toll. Arguably, it means that a team in peak physical condition should have a greater advantage in each match at this stage of the season than in the respective match played at the start of the season. In other words, they should have a significantly higher points expectation for the match played in mid-March than if the same match were played in mid-October.

In the modern day, a club such as Ajax are strongly built around either producing quality youth graduates or bringing in young players, all of which can then potentially be sold for a profit. Each summer, Frank de Boer and Ajax would be expecting to lose their better players. This can be seen clearly in the list of players that have departed the club over the past three years - Luis Suarez (£23.3m), Maarten Stekelenburg (£5.5m), Danny de Zeeuw (£5.5m), Jan Vertonghen (£11m), Gregory van der Wiel (£5.25m) and Vurnon Anita (£7.5m). Indeed, over the past three season, Ajax have a net spend of -£44m.

This is a pattern that is expected to repeat itself this summer. Christian Eriksson, signed for just under £900k, has been strongly linked with Borussia Dortmund, while academy product, Toby Alderweireld has been linked with Liverpool and Manchester United. 

This constant loss of their leading players each summer means that it takes the team a while to overcome these setbacks and for their replacements to gel into the lineup. It takes time for the new players to adapt to how Frank de Boer wants his team to play, but once they are settled and the team reaches its physical peak, they become virtually unstoppable.

Were they to reach peak physical condition in the early part of the season, the gains from this would be offset somewhat by the negative aspects of the lack of cohesiveness among the squad. Instead, by peaking later in the season, they are able to utilise this physical advantage to its maximum.

Their late season form stands in stark contrast to their closest rivals, PSV Eindhoven. In each of the last three seasons, PSV have scored fewer goals per game, conceded more goals per game and accrued fewer points per game in the period from March onwards than in the earlier part of the season. Ajax know that as long as they are able to remain within touching distance of PSV through the Christmas period and into the new year, they have an excellent chance to win the title.

In each of the last three seasons, PSV have been ahead of Ajax on the final day of Feburary, having held a two point advantage this season, and a five point advantage in the previous two seasons. Each time, Ajax have finished the season strongly and have overtaken their rivals.

The ability to finish the season strongly is an excellent attribute for a team to possess. Not only does it bring plenty of points, but it also puts added pressure onto rival teams. Knowing that your rival is likely to pick up close to maximum points means that you know that any dropped points could be crucial. Under such pressure, many teams can choke.

This emphasis by Frank de Boer on targeting the last ten games of the season is a very smart tactic. It has already brought them three consecutive titles, despite the repeated loss of their leading players. He has proven himself to be a very smart and capable manager and it would be no surprise to see him being linked with some of the bigger jobs in Europe in the near future.

WTA Rome Final Preview - Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka

With Serena Williams currently on the longest winning run of her remarkable career, many people are beginning to wonder if anyone can beat her. Since losing in Doha, she has embarked on a run of 23 consecutive victories, winning titles in Miami, Charleston and Madrid. She has lost just four sets in that run.

However, tomorrow she comes up against the last player to beat her - Victoria Azarenka. The reigning Australian Open champion last week saw her unbeaten start to the year brought to a crashing end as she lost in three bad-tempered sets to Ekaterina Makarova, but this week has seen her reach another final, and another meeting with Serena Williams.

Their last meeting in Doha saw Azarenka snap a nine-match losing streak against the American as she won a high-quality match 6-3 in the third set. It provided the opportunity for Azarenka to atone for her defeat in last year's US Open final, where she served for the title before going down 7-5 in the final set.

Serena, though, is in sparkling form on the clay right now. Last week in Madrid, she clinched her first title on red clay in almost a decade and she has brought that form to Rome. Promising teenager, Laura Robson, was dispatched in the second round with a solid 13/11 W/UE ratio. In the quarter-final, Dominika Cibulkova, was blasted off the court in a hail of winners. 40 winners flew off the racket of Serena Williams in just 13 games, while she hit just 16 unforced errors.

The tricky Carla Suarez Navarro was the next victim of Serena as she took her total winners for the tournament to 79 compared to just 41 unforced errors. The semi-final started competitively as Simona Halep took an early lead, but once Serena was settled, there was only one winner. From *2-1 up, Halep would win just one more game in the match. 24 winners would take Serena past the 100 mark for the tournament.

Azarenka came past the potentially tricky Julia Goerges in the second round for the loss of just two games, before Ayumi Morita retired at 6-1, 2-0 down. Her quarter-final meeting against Sam Stosur was far more difficult. She struggled on serve, particularly behind her second serve, winning just 50% of points on serve and 41% on second serve. Just as worrying would have been the 34 unforced errors compared with just 14 winners.

However, come the semi-final against the dangerous Sara Errani, those problems seemed to be a thing of the past. In a blistering start, she hammered 10 winners and just 3 unforced errors to race into a 4-0 lead when the rain delayed play. The break was not to prove an issue as she closed out the bagel. While the second set was more competitive, Azarenka stayed solid to come through 6-0, 7-5. Her statistics of 37 winners to 22 unforced errors will be far more pleasing and reflects what she needs to do against Serena.

The key tomorrow will be the respective serves. Azarenka has often struggled to deal with Serena's first serve, just as so many players have in the past. In all their six meetings last year, Serena won over 75% of points behind the first serve. However, in their meeting in Doha earlier this year, this figure dropped below 70%. In the majority of their meetings last year, Azarenka was able to win over 50% of points on Serena's second serve, particularly by being aggressive with the return. If she is able to win a few extra points on the first serve, she will give herself a chance to reach break point.

However, she also needs to serve well herself. The key will be to get plenty of 1st serves into play, otherwise Serena will do to her second serve what she does to Serena's. She served at a solid 80% today against Sara Errani, winning 65% behind that first serve and she will need figures around those marks to beat Serena tomorrow.

While Serena will start the match as the overwhelming favourite, Victoria Azarenka is the only player that has beaten a fully fit Serena since Cincinnati last year. She almost beat her in Flushing Meadows and the win in Doha will have given her the confidence that she can live with Serena. Whether she can do it on clay is a different matter, but it should be an interesting final.

UEFA Financial Fair Play Rules Face Legal Challenge

The implementation of new rules that introduce barriers to entry and entrench existing disparities in an industry would normally be frowned upon, particularly when those rules are being introduced by an association that governs a large swathe of that industry. UEFA’s new Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules appear to do exactly this though, and it is no surprise to see the first major legal challenge to these regulations.

UEFA's FFP is one of Michel Platini's crowning achievements,
but it could face an uncertain legal future

What is FFP?

Firstly, we shall look at what exactly FFP rules are and the purpose that they are meant to serve. There were six primary objectives that were set out when UEFA announced the framework for FFP:

•          To encourage responsible spending for the long-term benefit of football
•          To improve the economic and financial capability of the clubs
•          To ensure that clubs settle their liabilities with players, tax authorities and other clubs punctually
•          To encourage clubs to operate on the basis of their own revenues
•          To introduce more rationality and discipline in club football finance
•          To protect the long-term viability and sustainability of European club football

These objectives were set out to try and put the brakes on costs and losses in football from spiralling out of control. Many clubs are currently underwritten by wealthy, often overseas, investors, while others have gambled the club’s future by operating above their means in the hopes of achieving increased future revenues. This has led to a number of high-profile collapses over the past decade, not just in the UK.

The general objective behind FFP is to ensure that clubs balance their books over a specified period of time. Varying aspects of it have also been separated adopted by leagues around Europe – the Premier League recently announced a limit on the increase of wage bills from season to season, while the Championship and Leagues 1 and 2 all have variant on UEFA’s break-even approach.

What are Striani’s grievances?

On the face of it, the aims and objectives of FFP seem very reasonable and the clubs themselves have agreed to abide by these rules. However, Belgian agent, Daniel Striani, with the backing of Bosman lawyer, Jean-Louis Dupont, has now launched a legal challenge to FFP on the basis that it contains anti-competitive measures and will impact on his ability to generate income due to reduced transfers between clubs.

The three main arguments that Striani and Dupont will employ are that FFP will restrict outside investment in football clubs, FFP will entrench the existing disparities within the market and that FFP will reduce the transfer market and salary packages, thus affecting Striani’s ability to generate income for his business.

Does the challenge have a chance?

One major question that must be discussed is how the European Union views sporting industries. An EU white paper on sport mentions that “the Commission acknowledged the usefulness of robust licensing systems as a tool for promoting good governance in sport.” On the face of it, that would suggest that there are no issues with FFP. However, it goes on to clarify that “such systems must be compatible with competition and internal market provisions and may not go beyond what is necessary for the pursuit of a legitimate objective relating to the proper organisation and conduct of sport.”

It is in this clarification where the issues may potentially lie. Sport is very different to other industries in that one of the key elements of sport is uncertainty. Unlike other industries, there is a strong interest on the part of clubs to ensure a degree of competitive balance within competitions and leagues.

So, the question really arises as to whether FFP is compatible with existing EU competition policy and whether it goes beyond what is necessary.

In an opinion piece in the New York Times, Dupont argues that FFP would struggle to meet existing EU law - “as an agreement whereby industry participants jointly decide to limit investments, FFP likely constitutes collusion and hence a violation of EU competition law.” The European Commission views this differently as EU competition chief, Joaquin Almunia, has already written to Michel Platini explaining his view that FFP is “consistent with the aims and objectives of EU policy.”

A former case, that of Meca-Medina in 2006, has set the precedent that sporting rules do not constitute a special case. They must be fully consistent with existing EU regulations. In other words, the European Court of Justice must apply the same tests to sporting rules as they would apply to rules in any other area of economic activity.

FFP will almost certainly distort competition and inter-community trade. It will almost certainly have an impact on the transfer market, both internally within countries and between EU member states. They will reduce both the size of transfer fees and the quantity of transfers between clubs. It will also limit investment from outside third-parties. It could be argued that this could entrench the existing elite at the top by limiting the ability of other clubs to break into this group.

Chelsea and Manchester City are the obvious two examples that have benefitted from outside investment, from Roman Abramovich and Sheikh Mansour respectively, to break into the elite group. Without this third party investment, it is very difficult to see a scenario where these two clubs could have achieved the position in which they now find themselves.

Dupont explains that “the break-even rule makes no allowance for the commercial disparities between individual national leagues, which means that smaller clubs are hit harder, proportionately, than larger ones. Without the ability to invest in their longer-term success, smaller clubs will stay small. This is clearly anticompetitive.”

So, the fact that it likely infringes upon competition policy is fairly clear. The real question is whether it goes beyond what is necessary to achieve its objectives – in other words, are there other regulations that could be implemented instead to achieve the same objectives, but that are less restrictive on clubs?

There is an argument that the existing regulations achieve the stated objectives. Clubs are required to meet certain specifications to receive a license from UEFA, including demonstrating that there are no overdue payments to other clubs, employees or tax authorities. It could be argued that there is no need to restrict how clubs spend their money, or how they utilise debt, provided that they can meet their obligations through their existing resources.

Striani and Dupont will argue that there are other, less restrictive, ways to achieve the stated objectives. Improved revenue-sharing and a ‘luxury tax’, as employed in the NBA, has been mentioned as an alternative.

It will be a nervous time for UEFA. They have already had to remove a transfer ban as one of the punishments for breaking FFP due to concerns over it being unenforceable in court. Now they face the real threat that the entire FFP framework could be picked apart in the European courts.

Giro d'Italia Stage 12 Preview

After Tuesday's brutal stage, it was a far quieter stage today with the breakaway eventually claiming the stage win through Garmin's Ramunas Navardauskas. We mentioned him in the preview as a likely contender for the breakaway, but not for the actual stage win itself.

Stage 12 should be a rare one for the sprinters and I would expect to see the likes of Omega Pharma Quickstep and Cannondale on the front of the peloton to ensure that their men have the opportunity to compete for the stage win.

Both Mark Cavendish and Elia Viviani have their eyes on the red jersey. Cavendish will take the jersey back off Cadel Evans should he win tomorrow, while Viviani has a chance to go back into the top 3 in the points competition. They are likely to be the two to beat.

With John Degenkolb's retirement from the race, the biggest threat is likely to come from Nacer Bouhanni. FDJ struggled with their lead-out train in the last sprint stage, but the Frenchman was almost able to come through and pip Cavendish on the line. I would expect them to get it right tomorrow, so Bouhanni will be a real threat.

Other than that, it is tough to see the likes of Matt Goss, Roberto Ferrari or Giacomo Nizzolo really challenging these three. It would be a real surprise to see anyone else up on the top spot of the podium, or even really on the lower steps of the podium.

Prediction

1. Cavendish
2. Bouhanni
3. Viviani
4. Goss
5. Mezgec

Recommended Bets

Mark Cavendish @ 8/11
Nacer Bouhanni E/W @ 10/1

The Role of Luck in the Premier League

How many times have we watched the ball hit the inside of the post and stay out? How many times has the bounce of the ball just taken it inches out of the reach of the striker? How many times has an opposition's shot taken a deflection and flown into the back of the net?

With football being such a low-scoring sport, luck plays a crucial role. The Premier League averages 2.77 goals per game, which is slightly above the general world average. However, with so few scoring plays, the importance of a single goal is high. Many goals or scoring opportunities involve luck in some form or another.

Luck in football can play a huge role. 

However, is there a way that we can measure the impact that luck can have on how a team performs over a season compared with the general talent in a team?

I was reading 'The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball' by Tom Tango and came across a formula that he uses to answer such a question. He hypothesises that overall talent can be estimated from the overall variance in a league, where:

Total Variance = Variance due to talent + variance due to luck

To calculate total variance, we will look at win percentages and calculate the variance over the 20 teams in the league. To calculate the variance due to luck, Tango suggests that we can use the following formula:

Standard Deviation due to Luck = √(0.5*(0.5/Number of Matches Played)

However, the first issue to tackle is that of draws. Tango used his formula in baseball, where there are only two possible outcomes - win or lose. Obviously, in football, the draw is a common result, occurring in slightly over 25% of matches, so we cannot simply ignore them.

A commonly used alternative is to consider a draw as half a victory and half a loss. While this is not the worst method, it does ignore the fact that a team gains three points for a victory and just one for a draw. Therefore, it seems logical to consider a draw as a third of a victory and two thirds of a loss. As a result, we can then use this to scale up to actual points later, rather than just win percentages.

So, now we have our method set out, it is time to look at the results. In the current season, the average win percentage in the Premier League is 45.27%. If we multiply this by the 37 games that every team has played, it gives us a value for the average number of wins in the Premier League - 16.75. Remembering that each win is worth 3 points, we find that the average number of points in the Premier League is 50.25.

The variance of the winning percentages across the division is calculated to be 0.0247. We can also calculate the standard deviation due to luck, which comes out at 0.0822, which, when squared, gives an variance due to luck of 0.00676. In other words, the proportion of the total variance that can be explained by luck is 27.4%.

While it is encouraging that 72.6% of variance in the Premier League is determined by the talent of the players in each squad, the luck factor can still play a huge role. As we found earlier, the average number of points is 50.25. Given the variance due to luck, this would suggest that the average team would expect to gain points in the range from 37-64.

The difference between 37 points and 64 points is huge in the Premier League. A total of 37 points in the current season would put the team in 17th position, just two points clear of Wigan in the relegation zone going into the final day of the season. Conversely, 64 points would place the team in 6th position above Everton and, although not this season given the cup winners, would usually be good enough for a Europa League place.

We often see teams over-performing in one season before seemingly under-performing in the following season, raising the questions whether they were really as good as they were in one season, or as bad as they were in the other.

Newcastle are the prime example - last season, they had a wonderful season, finishing 5th and just missing out on the Champions League, while this season, they only secured their survival last weekend after a 2-1 win at QPR. They were fortunate to accrue as many points as they did last season, while arguably they have been unfortunate this season.

Interestingly, they collected 65 points last season, which puts them at the very top end of what we would expect from the average team, while their 41 points this season is only just above the bottom end of what we expect to see. Given many people would argue that Newcastle would be very close to the average, middle of the road Premier League team, their two seasons can be viewed as perfectly demonstrating the impact of luck and the natural variance of points around the expected mean.

Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Preview

For almost the first time in the race, the stage panned out precisely as we expected. An early breakaway group that was reeled in, an attack from Franco Pellizotti on his local slopes, and the smaller climbers pulling away from Wiggins and Gesink on the steepest sections of the climb.

After the brutal climbs today, stage 11 would appear to be suited to a breakaway success, although if Team Sky look to set a pace as they did today, then it could come down to a select group on the final climb. The next two stages are designed for the sprinters, so the GC contenders could look to give it one final attack before two gentle days to recover.

The battle for the mountain jersey should recommence with the category 2 climb of Sella Ciampigotto. Both Stefano Pirazzi and Robinson Chalapud were quiet today, but I would expect both of them to be in the break and competing for maximum points on the peak. Vini Fantini will likely look to put a rider in the break as well. The likes of Danilo Di Luca, Matteo Rabbotini and Stefano Garzelli are all far enough down in the GC that they will be allowed to go up the road. It is tough to decide which might be the one that goes - it could simply come down to whoever feels best in the morning.

Cadel Evans could look to steal bonus seconds by winning
a sprint between the leading contenders

The biggest shock in today's stage was that the defending champion, Ryder Hesjedal, cracked on the first climb and is now over 23 minutes back with his hopes of retaining his title in tatters. With that out of the question, Garmin may now look to go for stage wins, so it would be no surprise to see one of their riders up the front - Ramunas Navardauskas or even Hesjedal himself would appear to be the main candidates.

However, having seen how Team Sky pushed the pace on the climbs today, they could well look to do the same tomorrow and go for the bonus seconds available. With both Uran and Wiggins in the top 3, they have options and we could see either going for stage victory. Whether they could create any gaps remains to be seen, but the bonus seconds could be crucial in narrowing the gap to Nibali and Evans. In this scenario though, Cadel Evans would certainly be one to watch. Also targeting bonus seconds, he has shown his ability in the sprints against the other favourites and cannot be ruled out.

Two other riders to watch out for are Carlos Betancur and Enrico Battaglin. With back-to-back 2nd place finishes, Betancur has shown that he can attack and he will be desperate for that elusive stage win. While the finish is not the steepest, if he attacks, he has shown that he is tough to catch if he gets a gap. Similarly, Battaglin has shown that he can hang in on the less challenging climbs and he is very quick at the finish if he can make it there with the front group.

Prediction

1. Evans
2. Wiggins
3. Betancur
4. Nibali
5. Uran

Recommended Bets

Cadel Evans @ 12/1
Enrico Battaglin @ 33/1
Bradley Wiggins @ 50/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 10 Preview

After the first rest day of the Giro, the first of the proper mountain stages will test the riders that are hoping to make an impact.

The first 70km are pretty flat and there is an intermediate sprint at the 81km mark. After that, the first of the big climbs of the day up Passo Cason di Lanza will shed plenty of the peloton. Anyone that is not too far back might have a chance to get back into contention on the long descent, but the final climb to the summit finish at Altopiano del Montasio will whittle it down to the elite climbers.

It will be interesting to see whether a breakaway is allowed to go all the way and win this stage. While Astana have a strong team, it is tough to hold the leader's jersey for two weeks, so they may be happy for a breakaway rider to take over the jersey until later in the race. Again, we have two potential scenarios for this stage - a breakaway winner or a battle between the GC contenders on the final climb.

Domenico Pozzovivo could well look to win the stage with a solo
attack on the slopes of Altopiano del Montasio

Stefano Pirazzi will almost certainly be in the breakaway to begin with as he looks to pick up more mountain points on the Passo Cason di Lanza. It would also be little surprise to see at least one Colombian in the breakaway. John Darwin Atapuma was quietly fancied for the climber's jersey, but has been quiet so far. However, now the inclines ramp up and the altitude increases, I would expect to see him coming into his own.

I suspect though that a breakaway will not stay away and it will come down to the bigger names. There are some incredibly steep sections of the Altopiano del Montasio, starting at 14% and getting up as high as 18.5%, providing the perfect springboard for an attack. The bigger climbers might not enjoy this stage and the likes of Wiggins, Gesink and Hesjedal will probably be happy just to hang on and might even lose some time.

Instead, this will be where the smaller climbers excel. The likes of Vincenzo Nibali, Michele Scarponi, Cadel Evans and Mauro Santambrogio will be eyeing up the chance to put their challengers under serious pressure. However, one rider that I particularly fancy for this stage is Domenico Pozzovivo. He would appear to be in good form, given his position in the GC after the time trials, and could well be eyeing up a stage win. It would be no surprise to see him attack at some stage on the final climb and push away for the victory.

Another rider that it is worth keeping an eye on is Carlos Betancur. He is a little way back in the GC, so could be allowed to go away, and he will be looking at this as a chance to propel himself up the rankings and maybe target the young rider's classification. He showed in the last stage that he is in good form, and although this will be a tough challenge, if he is in top form, he is capable of winning this solo.

I would also not be overly surprised to see Franco Pellizotti attack on the final climb if he is feeling good. He has been targeting this stage as he was born and lives in the area, so knows the climb as well as anyone in the peloton.

Prediction

1. Pozzovivo
2. Nibali
3. Santambrogio
4. Scarponi
5. Betancur

Recommended Bets

Vincenzo Nibali E/W @ 10/1
Domenico Pozzovivo E/W@ 14/1
Carlos Betancur E/W @ 14/1

Analysing Garth Crooks' Team of the Week

Each week, Garth Crooks posts his 'Premier League Team of the Week' on the BBC Sport website. It is anyone guess as to how exactly he decides who should be in this team, but often many of the selections raise eyebrows. This week, we look through the 11 players that he has selected to see whether there is any justification in his selections.

Hugo Lloris

It is good to see Crooks starting with one of the more peculiar selections. The Tottenham goal was supposed 'under siege for much of their game at Stoke'. However, the statistics do not entirely back this up, with Spurs having had 25 shots compared to Stoke's 7. Indeed, Stoke only had one attempt on target in the entire match, which they scored from, meaning that Lloris did not actually make a single save during the match. With one claim from a cross and a solid pass success rate of just 27%, it is difficult to argue that Lloris was the best Premier League keeper over the weekend.

Sebastian Bassong

Crooks' claim that Bassong is Norwich's best player of the year is understandable - the Cameroonian international has been excellent and his only likely challenger would be Snodgrass. There seems to be very little that he actually argues for him being in the team this week, although he did play well and was one of the better defenders on show this weekend. Cannot argue with this selection.

Rio Ferdinand

Again, the focus here seems to be on the fact that Ferdinand has had an excellent season - a fact that cannot be disputed. However, he is not necessarily a bad shout for this team. He did score the dramatic late winning goal and his all-round performance was solid if not excellent. While I might not have had him in my team of the week, it is not the worst selection.

Jan Vertonghen

A selection that I certainly agree with. Vertonghen was excellent, despite filling in at left-back. He made more interceptions and clearances than any other Spurs player, made the joint-most tackles, had the highest pass completion rate as well as proving a threat going forward with three shots and three crosses. No arguments about this pick.

Frank Lampard

No arguments with this pick either. Two goals from the incredible Frank Lampard to all but guarantee Chelsea will be in Europe's elite competition next season. It is amazing that there is any doubt as to whether he will be at the club next season. As well as his two goals, he made more tackles than any other Chelsea player and had the joint-most interceptions. An all-round excellent performance.

Juan Mata

Another very odd selection. As good as Mata has been this season, this was one of his poorer performances this season. Crooks talks about how it was his "ingenuity that prized open the Villa defence", seemingly being oblivious to the fact that it was Eden Hazard that was the key player, and that Mata was not involved in the move at all. He may have "created three chances against Aston Villa", but he was outshone by Hazard, who created four chances, had more successful dribbles and collected two assists.

Callum McManaman

The most ridiculous choice of all, given Crooks advertises it as a 'Premier League Team of the Week'. While Callum McManaman was quite excellent in the FA Cup final, it was not a performance that should be eligible for this team at all.

Kevin Mirallas

Another pick that I can have no arguments with. Kevin Mirallas scored both goals and put in an excellent all-round performance. He had six shots, created six chances for his teammates, put plenty of excellent crosses into the area and rarely gave the ball away. Deserves his place in this team.

Clint Dempsey

A goal and an assist from Clint Dempsey helped Spurs and it is tough to argue his place in the team. He created three chances for teammates and generally battled well against a tough Stoke defensive line.

Daniel Sturridge

A sparkling hat-trick from Daniel Sturridge means that there can be no doubt that he should be the first name in the team this week. Three goals from five shots on target, he also created three chances for teammates and successfully dribbled with the ball more often than any other Liverpool player. A performance of the highest quality.

Emmanuel Adebayor

While Adebayor scored the winning goal, he did not really have a particularly great all-round performance. The goal was the only shot on target, which is disappointing given he was playing as the main striker, he did not create a single chance for his teammates and he did not win a single ball in the air. He did not have a successful dribble and was dispossessed more times than any other Spurs player. Had he not scored the goal, it would have been marked as a pretty dreadful performance.

My Team of the Week

It is easy to criticise somebody else's selections without offering suggestions of your own. Therefore, here is my selection for team of the week. I have used a 4-2-3-1 as it is generally the most commonly used formation in the league these days:

GK: Simon Mignolet
DR: Phil Bardsley
DL: Jan Vertonghen
DC: Ryan Bennett
DC: Carlos Cuellar
CM: Fabian Delph
CM: Frank Lampard
AMC: Clint Dempsey
AMC: Philippe Coutinho
AMR: Hatem Ben Arfa
ST: Daniel Sturridge

Any suggestions or criticisms of my team of the week, feel free to leave a comment in the box below....

Giro d'Italia Stage 9 Preview

More bad luck for Wiggins hampered him in the time trial and, despite finishing second, he will be very disappointed with how the day panned out. He would fully expected to have been in the Maglia Rosa tonight, so to find himself 1m16s down on Vincenzo Nibali has put him in a difficult position.

The early part of this stage will see the contenders for the mountain jersey likely to take centre stage. With the first category 1 and category 2 climbs of the race, there are plenty of points at stake. As a result, it would be no surprise to see the favourites involved in a breakaway to try and grab the points. Stefano Pirazzi has been very active so far and it would be a surprise not to see him involved. At almost 8 minutes down in the GC, the leaders will have no problem letting him go away up the road to begin with, but they would likely chase down the break eventually unless he drops back.

Vini Fantini will be desperate to get someone in the break having missed it a couple of days ago. Fabio Taborre is the logical contender to get into the break and he has been very active thus far, so I would expect him to try and find his way into the breakaway. They are also covered if the breakaway is caught as Danilo Di Luca has attempted to solo his way away from the peloton twice already, and it would be no surprise if he attempts this again.

Stage 9 would appear to suit Miguel Angel Rubiano, who won a
stage in last year's Giro

Another team that will look to put someone in the break is Androni. I have already mentioned him in a previous preview, but Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez is a prime candidate for this type of stage. He has won stages like this in the past and will hope to do it again.

Giovanni Visconti is another obvious candidate for the break. He is targeting the mountains classification and is far enough down in the GC not to be a major worry. If he is unable to, the other option for Movistar would be Eros Capecchi, who has struggled so far, but will be hoping to make an impact soon.

If the three Italian teams - Androni, Bardiani and Vini Fantini - all manage to get a rider into the breakaway, there is a decent chance that it might make it all the way. There would be very few teams that would be overly bothered about chasing it down, so this is the main focus of our bets for this stage.

If the break is brought back, the final climb is perfect for an attack from someone looking for a solo win. This would be where the likes of Danilo Di Luca, Matteo Rabottini or Giovanni Visconti were he to miss the break.

However, with the likes of Wiggins and, particularly, Hesjedal having lost out in the time trial, there is a chance that they may look to attack the other GC contenders. In this situation, there is every chance that they could catch the break, so it is worth covering ourselves. Enrico Battaglin is the one to look at, given how well he has climbed so far and he is clearly the quickest man in the leading group right now.

Recommended Bets

Enrico Battaglin @ 14/1
Giovanni Visconti E/W @ 14/1
Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez E/W @ 18/1
Fabio Taborre E/W @ 50/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 8 Preview

A dramatic and wet descent on Stage 7 saw, first, Vincenzo Nibali attack, then crash, and then Bradley Wiggins come a cropper on a tight hairpin bend. In the end, Wiggins lost over a minute on his contenders, making today's time-trial all the more important.

This brutal 55km time-trial will open up some gaps in the general classification. It is long, relatively technical and the ramp in the final 3km will cause plenty of problems for tired riders.

If Bradley Wiggins does not win this, it will be a huge shock. If he does not win this by at least two minutes over his GC challengers, it will be a surprise. The only man in the field that stands a chance of coming close to him is the American, Tyler Phinney, who ran Tony Martin close in the World Championships last year. However, he is supposedly having problems with hayfever, so might struggle.

It will be a huge surprise if Bradley Wiggins does not
win the time-trial

More interesting is the third podium place. There are plenty of contenders for this. The two Orica GreenEdge riders, Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, will both fancy their chances, particularly the former, despite his poor performance in important time-trials last year. Benat Intxausti has the pressure of being in the Maglia Rosa and will need to put in a good performance, while his teammate Alex Dowsett, is a very good time-trialler.

Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali and Ryder Hesjedal are all very solid time-triallers and will be looking for the ride of their life to limit the losses to Wiggins. Whether they can sneak a podium place against the specialist time-triallers remains to be seen, but I would expect Hesjedal to overtake Nibali in the overall GC, given he has just two seconds to make up, and for me, is a better time-trialler.

The other two riders that finished in the top 10 in the World Championship time trial competing here are Frederik Kessiakoff and Dmitriy Gruzdev. Kessiakoff has had some excellent and under-appreciated rides in time trials recently, while Gruzdev put in a wonderful performance to finish 6th in the World Championships.

Prediction

1. Wiggins
2. Phinney
3. Kessiakoff
4. Evans
5. Hesjedal

Recommended Bets

Bradley Wiggins @ 4/9
Frederik Kessiakoff Top 3 @ 7/2
Ryder Hesjedal to beat Vincenzo Nibali @ 17/20
Dmitriy Gruzdev to beat Tanel Kangert @ 2/1
Frederik Kessiakoff to beat Manuele Boaro @ 5/7

Giro d'Italia Stage 7 Preview

As expected, Mark Cavendish won Stage 6 comfortably in the end, while our other two picks - Nacer Bouhanni and Mattia Gavazzi - finishing 4th and 5th, just missing out on the each-way terms. There was also a nice tribute to the late Wouter Weylandt, who passed away exactly two years ago in this race, when Cavendish held up the number 108 on the podium.

Stage 7 is a far more difficult one to predict. It is a nasty, tiring stage ahead of Saturday's crucial time-trial and there are a number of ways that this stage could pan out.

The first is that a breakaway group is allowed to go all the way to the end, providing there are no major challengers in the group. While it is always tough to predict which riders might be involved in a breakaway, there are a number of potential options that we shall look at.

A touching tribute from Mark Cavendish to the
late Wouter Weylandt

Another option is that Wiggins' main challengers might look to attack him on one of the short, sharp climbs toward the end. These are the types of climbs where the Englishman is vulnerable to the attacking climbing style of the likes of Nibali and Hesjedal. There are several sections of the climbs around Chieti, where the gradient reaches 20%, while the two final categorised climbs reached 18% and 14% respectively, allowing plenty of options to attack Wiggins and try to take some time out of him before the time-trial. However, if they are unable to shake him, we may see them going for the bonus seconds on the line again. In this situation, Cadel Evans must be one of the favourites, while Hesjedal has shown that he is keen to take some seconds as well. Mauro Santambrogio is another that must be kept in mind, given his strong finishing ability and desire to win a stage here.

I suspect the second of those two options is the most likely scenario. Normally it is the type of stage where the breakaway could well survive, but with the race expected to be close, the bonus seconds have taken on a new importance.

If the break survives, the challenge is to identify those riders that are likely to be part of that break. Nobody that is too close to the leader will be allowed to get away, so really we are looking at riders who are at least six or seven minutes back. The likes of Miguel Angel Rubiano Chavez, Marco Marcato, Matteo Rabbotini, Fabio Taborre, Pablo Lastras and Filippo Pozzato are all possible candidates, but it is tough to really predict who is likely to be involved.

Giovanni Visconti is an obvious contender for this stage, although there are concerns about his condition after crashing in today's stage. He went to hospital for checks, but even if there are no problems, he may be stiff and find it tough for a couple of days.

Miguel Rubiano Chavez won a stage last year and will fancy
his chances of another stage tomorrow

Should it come back together, expect to see Stefano Pirazzi try something on this stage with the mountain points available. However, it is more likely that he will look to take the mountain points before dropping back, unless he is able to get a reasonable gap. Another that has shown good form so far is Danilo Di Luca. He came close a few days ago and will be dangerous if he is able to find a gap as he did then.

I am going to go with Rubiano Chavez and Fabio Taborre as potential winners from a breakaway group or to go away on one of the later climbs, while also covering Cadel Evans as a potential winner should a group of the GC contenders lead the stage home.

Recommended Bets

Cadel Evans @ 8/1
Miguel Rubiano Chavez @ 18/1
Fabio Taborre @ 60/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 6 Preview

The carnage caused by the crash in Stage 5 really put pay to any bets that were running up until that point. Degenkolb eventually powered home after a mammoth sprint to catch Canola just before the line with Angel Vicioso and Paul Martens taking unexpected spots on the podium.

Much to the relief of the pure sprinters, stage 6 is tailor-made for them. With a long straight section leading into the final sprint, there should be none of the chaos of today and the sprint teams should be able to get their trains set and in position nicely.

Mark Cavendish is the obvious favourite for this stage. I went against him in the opening stage due to his often slow start, but he was on the ball straight away and it is difficult to really see him losing this. He showed that he is perfectly capable of winning stages even when his train is not perfect - he is simply faster than anyone else in this race.

John Degenkolb will be hoping for back-to-back stage wins and he will benefit from a strong leadout train. Argos-Shimano were nicely set today before Luka Mezgec's fall on the slippery surface, but it showed that they are well-organised and ready for tomorrow. Similarly, Cannondale should be set to give Elia Viviani the perfect opportunity to go for his first ever Giro stage victory.

It is difficult to see who can stop Mark Cavendish from
winning his second stage

Among the other sprints, I would expect Nacer Bouhanni, Mattia Gavazzi and Roberto Ferrari all to be in amongst the leaders. Bouhanni has been slightly disappointing thus far, but was nicely positioned in today's stage and he is quick and strong when it comes to finding the right spot in these types of finish. Mattia Gavazzi gave up on today's climb early on, suggesting that he intends to conserve his energy for this stage. He already has two wins this year under his belt and will be hopeful of challenging for a third.

Again, I don't feel that the form is there for Matt Goss to really challenge. He has been fairly disappointing so far and I suspect that he will struggle to find the speed to worry the power sprinters in this stage. Among the other possibles are Francesco Chicchi, Adam Blythe and Sacha Modolo, but it is difficult to see them overcome the top sprinters in this field.

Giacomo Nizzolo is one that I have tipped up a couple of times now, but after a good first stage, he has not quite seemed himself. He was complaining about allergies in stage 4, explaining that he felt better today due to the rain calming those problems. The weather for tomorrow is expected to be hot and sunny, so this could be a problem again, and as a result, I don't particularly fancy him for this stage.

Prediction

1. Cavendish
2. Bouhanni
3. Degenkolb
4. Gavazzi
5. Viviani

Recommended Bets

Mark Cavendish @ 8/11
Nacer Bouhanni E/W @ 11/1
Mattia Gavazzi E/W @ 28/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 5 Preview

A relatively quiet stage today that was won by Enrico Battaglin in a sprint from a surprisingly large group. There were plenty of attacks on the final climb, but not from any of the bigger names. One of our picks, Stefano Pirazzi, attacked on both climbs, but seemed to be looking for mountain points, rather than the stage win.

Stage 5 is likely to be one for the sprinters. The climb of Montescaglioso comes around 15km from the end and is where Marco Pantani famously attacked in 2003, blowing the field apart, but even then, there was enough time for the sprinters to get back onto the peloton and compete for the finish. It is not the most difficult climb and it would seem likely that this should finish in a bunch sprint, unless a group can get away on the climb and are allowed to go clear. You would imagine the likes of Argos-Shimano, Orica GreenEdge and Movistar will get on the front and look to try and drop the pure sprinters, particularly Cavendish, to set things up for Degenkolb, Goss and Ventoso respectively.

With so few sprint stages in this year's Giro, the importance of this stage to the sprint teams cannot be underestimated. Omega Pharma Quickstep will be doing everything in their power to keep Cavendish in the group on the final climb, possibly trying to set a reduced pace at the front, although this could invite attacks from the puncheurs. Obviously, if Cavendish is in the peloton at the end, he is the man to beat. However, someone like Giacomo Nizzolo could be one to keep an eye on, given his good recent form.

Francisco Ventoso will be looking for a stage win in Matera

If there is a breakaway on the final climb, the most obvious candidates come from the large group of Italians. Fabio Felline had terrible luck in the first three stages, but showed what he is capable of as he finished second in today's stage. He will not be troubled by this climb and is fast in the finish - indeed, he would be a runner if it finishes in a bunch sprint as well. Enrico Battaglin will be eyeing up a second stage win in successive days as well. He showed how quick he is to the line today and will certainly be in the mix tomorrow as well.

Potential other contenders might include the likes of Filippo Pozzato, Giovanni Visconti and Sacha Modolo. All of these have the ability to breakaway on the final climb if the pace is not high enough. Indeed, there are arguments for all of these. Visconti would appear to be targeting the KOTM jersey, and although there are not many points available, every point counts. Bardiani grabbed their first stage win today and Modolo is a decent chance for another as an alternative to Battaglin, while Lampre have had a tough race so far, so a stage win for Pozzato would be a welcome bonus at this early stage.

Prediction:

1. Francisco Ventoso
2. John Degenkolb
3. Fabio Fellini
4. Giacomo Nizzolo
5. Matthew Goss

Recommended Bets:

Francisco Ventoso E/W @ 7/1
Fabio Felline E/W @ 13/1
Giacomo Nizzolo E/W @ 40/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 4 Preview

After the unexpected action from the overall contenders on Stage 3, there was no chance for the likes of Bouhanni and Nizzolo to make it to the end to contest the finish. Stage 4 will be all about the GC contenders again it would seem.

A long 190km flat section before the stage really gets underway should see a breakaway going away. However, there is again little chance of it staying away as the stage really starts with the climb up Vibo Valentina with an average gradient of around 6% for the majority of the climb. After that, the final climb up Croce Ferrata, the category 2 climb that averages 5.6%, but rises to over 10% at times. With just 6.7km, it would be possible for a small group could stay away over the top down to the finish at Serra San Bruno.

So, that moves us onto looking at the potential winners of this stage. After Team Sky struggled to control the race in Stage 3, it would seem likely that their rivals will attack again either on the Vibo Valentina, or more likely, on the Croce Ferrata. Ryder Hesjedal attacked both on the ascent and the descent in Stage 3 showing his form and, given his post-race comments, it would be no surprise to see him go again.

Mauro Santambrogio is the favourite to win Stage 4

Among the other contenders that might fancy going for it are the Italian trio of Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio and Michele Scarponi. Nibali and Santambrogio both looked in good form in Stage 3, while Scarponi was in contention until a crash forced him to wait for a new bike, losing him plenty of time. While the likes of Evans and Wiggins should be in the final reckoning, it would be a surprise were they to actually win the stage itself, although the bonus seconds available to the first few places will tempt the leading riders to try and outdo their rivals on the line.

The climbers will also be eyeing up a stage win. Carlos Betancur is strongly fancied to do well in this Giro and he has been in excellent form in recent months. He is excellent on the climbs and will know that he has a chance for a victory here. The likes of Stefano Pirazzi, Stefano Garzelli, Matteo Rabottini, Domenico Pozzovivo and Giovanni Visconti are all eyeing up the King of the Mountains jersey, so might look to attack to take the points at the top of Croce Ferrata and potentially the stage win.

Stefano Pirazzi will fancy his chances for a stage win and
points toward the King of the Mountain competition

Mauro Santambrogio is the favourite in the betting and with good reason. He is one of the best climbers in the field and is certainly one of the fastest finishers of the group that is likely to contest the stage win. Surprisingly, the bookmakers seem to make Cadel Evans the second favourite and I would certainly not be touching him at these odds. While he might fancy trying to contest a sprint finish for the bonus seconds, I am not convinced that he will be winning this stage. He is closely followed by Hesjedal, Sanchez and Nibali which makes sense.

If a group reaches the finish, Santambrogio should win this. He will be the fastest finisher of the group and wants a stage win in this Giro. However, there is every chance that one of the Italian KOTM contenders could attack alone, and given they are already well down on the GC, they may well be allowed to go away and win the stage. The recommended bets reflect this.

Prediction

1. Stefano Pirazzi

2.  Mauro Santambrogio

3. Ryder Hesjedal

4. Cadel Evans

5. Vincenzo Nibali

Recommended Bets

Mauro Santambrogio @ 6/1

Stefano Pirazzi E/W @ 33/1

Stefano Garzelli E/W @ 33/1

Domenico Pozzovivo E/W @ 66/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 3 Preview

With their victory in the TTT yesterday, Team Sky already have the pink jersey in their possession. The third stage sees the peloton make their way from Sorrento to Marina di Ascea via the climbs of San Mauro Cilento and Sella di Catona. The first of these climbs – San Mauro Cilento – is a nasty short climb that should shed most of the pure sprinters from the group, while the leading teams are likely to set a fast pace up the latter to reel in any breakaway. This should shed any of the pure sprinters that have made it over the first climb. There is also a descent down to the finish, which could give the likes of Nibali and Sanchez the chance to try and take a few seconds on Wiggins, or to test Team Sky at the very least.

This means that it should be a stage contested by either a small breakaway that is able to get away on the final climb or a sprint involving those sprinters that are able to climb a bit. Thus, it is no surprise to see Nacer Bouhanni at the head of the betting. He has been in excellent form recently and finished 3^rd in Stage 1 showing that he can compete with the pure sprinters. He should be able to make it over these climbs, and if he does, it is difficult to see anyone that is likely to beat him.

His main challengers are likely to be Matt Goss, John Degenkolb and Fabio Felline. These are all perfectly capable of making it over the climbs and contesting a sprint finish. However, as I said in an earlier preview, neither Goss or Degenkolb are in particularly good form at the moment. The young Italian, Fabio Felline, is an interesting one in this. Not technically a sprinter, he is a very fast finisher and would fancy his chances, whether he gets in a breakaway or in a sprint finish.

Looking at a similar recent stage to this, we saw in the Tour de Romandie that Giacomo Nizzolo hung in grimly on the climb of the Col du Mollendruz to contest a sprint finish. It was surprising that he managed to stay in touch with the peloton and means that he certainly cannot be ruled out here at big odds. If he is in the final group, he is certainly capable of winning this stage. Nizzolo finished 4^th in the opening stage to continue a good run of results in recent months.

The other possibility is that Samuel Sanchez could attack on the final descent. Having lost so much time on the TTT yesterday, he desperately needs to make time back. He is undoubtedly one of the most gifted descenders in the sport and all he would need is a small gap and he would be gone. Given that he is already over a minute back on Bradley Wiggins, it is almost do-or-die time already and this would seem to be an early opportunity.

Prediction

1. Nacer Bouhanni

2. Fabio Felline

3. Giacomo Nizzolo

4. Matt Goss

5. John Degenkolb

Recommended Bets

Nacer Bouhanni @ 13/2

Samuel Sanchez @ 33/1

Giacomo Nizzolo E/W @ 50/1

Giro d'Italia Stage 1 Preview

The first stage of the Giro d'Italia provides an opportunity for one of the sprinters to take the Maglia Rosa for the first time since 2003. In the last nine editions, the race has started with a time-trial, but this circuit starting and finishing in Napoli will give the likes of Mark Cavendish the chance to wear the leader's jersey that he held for two stages in 2009.

The stage starts with the first loop, which sees the riders covering the category 4 climb up Via Francesco Petrarca four times. There should be plenty of riders from the smaller teams looking to get away into a breakaway here and look to pick up the King of the Mountains jersey and some coverage for their teams. However, given there are not many stages for the pure sprinters, there is no chance that this stage will not end in a bunch sprint.

Mark Cavendish is rightly the favourite, but it was interesting that he opted to ride the Giro del Trentino in preparation for this. It suggests that he is probably targeting the points jersey by riding through the whole race and it may take him a stage or two to get into perfect sprinting form. Despite his ability, he rarely wins the first sprint stage of a Grand Tour - the 2012 Giro d'Italia and 2009 Tour de France are the only two in the past 4 years. Omega Pharma Quickstep have also struggled this year to lead Cavendish out perfectly, and although he is certainly capable of winning stages without this, it makes it far more difficult.

Mark Cavendish will be looking to win his 11th Giro d'Italia stage

The next three in the betting are John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni and Matt Goss. Goss and Degenkolb should have good leadout trains and it would be no surprise to see Orica GreenEdge and Argos-Shimano leading the peloton into the sprint with Cavendish looking to latch onto one of these.

The Italian charge will be led by the sextet of Giacomo Nizzolo, Elia Viviani, Roberto Ferrari, Mattia Gavazzi, Sacha Modolo and Francesco Chicchi. For me, the most likely from this group would be Nizzolo and Chicchi. Nizzolo has had several top 5 finishes this season, most recently a 2nd place in the first stage of the Tour de Romandie. Chicchi was poor in Turkey, but has several wins this year, particularly in these shorter stages. Neither Viviani or Ferrari have been in particularly good form this season, while I struggle to see Gavazzi or Modolo beating the top sprinters in a race like this.

While Cavendish is certainly the rightful favourite, he is too short in the betting to really be confident to back him. I would be looking for odds-against to back him for the stage, so it is really a matter of trying to find who could beat him.

For me, Nacer Bouhanni is the in-form sprinter from the group that could beat him. While Goss and Degenkolb undoubtedly have the ability, their form this year has been questionable. As I mentioned, out of the Italians, I would lean toward Giacomo Nizzolo to give the home fans something to cheer.

Prediction:

1. Cavendish
2. Bouhanni
3. Nizzolo
4. Degenkolb
5. Chicchi

Recommended Bets:

Nacer Bouhanni E/W @ 7/1
Giacomo Nizzolo E/W @ 33/1