"20 to Watch" Quarterly Review - Part 1

We are almost three months into the new season, so it only seems logical to check up on how our ’20 to Watch’ players have started their year.

Anett Kontaveit

Initial World Ranking: 439
Current World Ranking: 368 (↑71)
2013 Record: 5-3
2013 Titles: 0

The season started well for the Estonian, coming through qualifying to reach the semi-final of the $25k in Burnie, Australia. Comfortable victories over three top-400 players proved that she should rise up the rankings rapidly and she battled hard against the 30-year old Australian, Monique Adamczak, in the semi-final, losing 6-4 in the third set.

This was all in preparation for her attempts to win her maiden Junior Grand Slam title. Seeded tenth, she did not drop a set on her way to the semi-final with victories over Harriet Dart, Natalia Vajdova, seventh seed, Anna Danilina and fourth seed, Antonia Lottner. However, this was as far as she would go, losing to second seed, Katerina Siniakova.

A final tournament in Australia saw Kontaveit lose in straight sets to Azra Hadzic, although a comedown the week after her run at the Australian Open was not entirely unexpected, especially in a player so young.

She would then take a month and a half off to work on her game before returning at the Premier event in Miami, where she had been awarded a wildcard. Despite winning just three games against the talented American, Christina McHale, the match in the prestigious night session in front of a packed house would have been a big learning experience for her, and hopefully she will find herself playing in big matches on a regular basis.

RATING: 4/5

Donna Vekic

Initial World Ranking: 109
Current World Ranking: 95 (↑14)
2013 Record: 4-3
2013 Titles: 0

Vekic began the season as the youngest automatic entry into the Australian Open draw and emphasised her talent, dropping just three games in her first round win against Andrea Hlavackova to set up a glamour second round encounter with former world number one, Caroline Wozniacki. Despite losing 6-1, 6-4, Vekic won plenty of fans. She struggled with her first serve, although she hit some beautiful winners, particularly off the forehand wing.

She had three solid wins in the Fed Cup, although was beaten by Agnieszka Radwanska, as Croatia lost to Poland in the final stage, but then had a disappointing first round exit in Kuala Lumpur against Bethanie Mattek-Sands in a close encounter.

Vekic came through qualifying for the Premier event in Miami, beating Marta Sirotkina and Valeria Savinykh, before comfortably beating Yulia Putintseva in the first round. However, she struggled against the higher quality, Elena Vesnina, in the second round.

It has been a difficult first season on the full-tour level for Vekic so far. It will be interesting to see how she performs in the clay court swing, given her inexperience on the surface in her career thus far.

RATING: 2/5

Carina Witthoeft

Initial World Ranking: 223
Current World Ranking: 220 (↑3)
2013 Record: 6-2
2013 Titles: 0

Witthoeft’s season did not begin properly until this month, having taken time off to work on various aspects of her game. Her first tournament of the year was a $10k ITF tournament in Sutton. Seeded second, she showed early signs of rust, labouring to a three set victory over the French teenager, Oceane Adam, but then had two solid straight sets victories over Anna Smith and Angelica Moratelli, before her semi-final opponent retired just one game into the match. Sadly, she was unable to win her first title of the year as she lost in three tight sets to the talented Liechtensteiner, Stephanie Vogt.

Tournament number two would come the following week as she was the third seed at the $15k event in Bath. A good win over the Australian Open junior champion, Ana Konjuh, for the loss of just three games was a solid start, and a three set win against Viktorija Golubic saw her into the quarter-final. However, a straight sets defeat to Tereza Smitkova saw her tournament end there.

A solid start to the season thus far and it would be a surprise if she does not pick up an ITF title soon. Once that comes, she should start looking at stepping up to the $25k or $50k events and a higher quality of opponent.

RATING: 3/5

Eugenie Bouchard

Initial World Ranking: 144
Current World Ranking: 123 (↑21)
2013 Record: 8-8
2013 Titles: 0

After a promising end to 2012, it has been a difficult start to the year for the Wimbledon junior champion. A defeat in tough conditions to Elena Vesnina in Auckland was certainly nothing to be ashamed about, but a straight sets defeat to Storm Sanders in qualifying for Sydney, followed by a defeat against Daria Gavrilova in qualifying for the Australian Open meant that it was a disappointing month down under for the Canadian.

The Fed Cup provided a change of scenery and four wins out of four on the clay in Colombia restored some confidence, with victories over Mariana Duque-Marino and Teliana Pereira particularly pleasing. A second round defeat followed in the Cali challenger, before another disappointing failure to qualify in Bogota, although losing to Parra Santonja is excusable.

She finally qualified for the first time in Acapulco, before beating Eva Birnerova in the first round for her first main draw win of the year. She can also be proud of her performance against eventual champion, Sara Errani, losing 7-6, 6-2 in a solid match.

Transitioning back to the hard courts, she lost in the first round of qualifying for Indian Wells against Elina Svitolina, but Miami proved more successful as she beat Shahar Peer in the first round to set up a glamour tie against Maria Sharapova. While she only won two, it was a valuable learning experience.

It has been a fairly disappointing year so far for Bouchard, although she has seemed to enjoy the clay courts so far, so the clay court swing might bring around a change in fortunes for the Canadian.

RATING: 2/5

Monica Puig

Initial World Ranking: 134
Current World Ranking: 102 (↑32)
2013 Record: 11-7
2013 Titles: 0

It was as though the season had never ended for Puig as she continued her excellent run of form from the end of last year. She qualified for the main draw in Brisbane with good wins over Vera Dushevina and Bethanie Mattek-Sands, before beating local player, Olivia Rogowska, in the first round. However, it was her performance against Angelique Kerber that really stole the show, pushing the world number five to three sets, losing 9-7 in the third set tiebreak. If only she had not missed an easy volley to take a 5-2 lead in the tiebreak, a huge upset might have become a reality.

Sadly, she threw in a poor performance in qualifying for the Australian Open, losing to Qiang Wang in three sets. Two wins in qualifying in Paris were not quite enough as she succumbed to Stefanie Voegele in the final round, before she dropped back to the ITF circuit to get a few wins under her belt. A good run in the $100k event in Midland saw her beat Alexandra Stevenson, Sachia Vickery and Jessica Pegula, before losing to another talented young American, Lauren Davis, in the semi-final.

She qualified for the Premier event in Indian Wells, including a very impressive straight sets victory over Andrea Petkovic, before losing in three to Alize Cornet in the first round. Automatic entry into the main draw in Miami was the result of good results thus far, although she struggled against Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the first round.

The match against Kerber has been the highlight and shows Puig what she can do if she plays well. She should qualify for plenty more WTA events this season, and combined with the odd ITF event here and there, it should boost her ranking nicely.

RATING: 4/5

The Beginning of the End for Roger Federer

Given their respective histories, it seemed strange that Rafael Nadal was the healthier of the two players on the court during his win against Roger Federer at Indian Wells yesterday. After all, it was only last month that Nadal made his long-awaited comeback from a knee injury and it is possible to count on one hand the number of injuries that the seemingly indestructible Roger Federer has suffered in his career.

However, as a player ages, it is only natural that a player’s body begins to suffer from the wear and tear of the years on the tour, even a player such as Roger Federer. The back injury that has troubled the Swiss number one has been a recurring problem for a while now, albeit with varying severity. He had back problems a few years ago and the problem flared up again on varying occasions last year, notable in Doha and then at Wimbledon.

In the previous round, he had struggled past his compatriot, Stanislas Wawrinka, but there were signs that he was not 100%. Last night, it was crystal clear. The eagerly anticipated match between two of the greatest players of the modern era turned into a procession for the returning Nadal. Federer played down his injury after the match, but there was no doubting that it played a major role in the defeat.

What is notable though is that it continues a disappointing year for the seventeen-time Grand Slam champion. He reached the semi-final of the Australian Open after a titanic battle with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, before crashing out to Andy Murray. Quite how that match went five sets is still a mystery though, given the domination of the Brit throughout all five sets.

A limp performance saw him eliminated in the quarter-finals in Rotterdam against 39^th ranked, Julien Benneteau, only the third defeat to a player outside the top 30 in almost three years. The previous two had been against Andy Roddick and Tommy Haas, both former top two players. A semi-final defeat to Tomas Berdych in Dubai, followed by this defeat to Rafa Nadal means that he is yet to reach a final in 2013. This run of four tournaments without a final appearance is his longest drought for over two years.

Indeed, if Andy Murray reaches the final at Indian Wells, he will rise to number two in the world, pushing Roger Federer out of the top two. With the form of Novak Djokovic, the newly found confidence of Andy Murray and the resurgence of Rafael Nadal, it is a very real possibility that Federer has played his last match ranked inside the top two.

Naturally, his declining form does raise the question of retirement. Last year, he spoke of being exhausted at times, and he is set to embark on a seven-week break from tennis, skipping the Miami Masters and not returning until the Madrid Masters in May. He has also hinted at wanting to spend more time with his family, with his twin girls now three-years old.

Of course, tennis fans want to savour every moment of Roger Federer and want him to keep going. But similarly, it would be a shame to see such a great player slipping down the rankings. It would be a real surprise if he does continue playing once his ranking begins to slide. It is difficult to imagine Roger Federer outside the top 4, and I doubt he would tolerate that either. For a man that sets such high standards for himself, the frustration at not being able to perform as he used to is clear at times.

It will be fascinating to see where his game is when he returns in Madrid in two months time. Hopefully, his back should be improved, if not completely recovered, and the break may give him the renewed desire for the game. However, with maximum points to defend in Madrid, plus semi-final points in Rome and Roland Garros, he has plenty to lose and not a great deal to gain.

Even if Murray does not overtake Federer this week, it would be a surprise if he does not surpass him by the time Federer takes to the court again. Murray does not have many points to defend in Monte Carlo, Barcelona or Madrid, so has the potential to increase his tally significantly.

At 31, Roger Federer has had a glittering career, perhaps one that will never be surpassed. However, it would now appear that he is no longer able to regularly compete with the younger Djokovic and Murray. He has also now won just four of his last seventeen meetings with Rafael Nadal. His victory at Wimbledon was a glorious reminder of why we should not write him off, but could it be a final hurrah?

As I mentioned earlier, it could well be that Roger Federer has played his last ever match as a top two player. And if his struggles continue, we should savour his every appearance on the big stage. Every good thing comes to an end eventually…

Milan-San Remo Preview and Tips

The Milan-San Remo race is the first ‘Monument’ of the season and, at 298km, it is the longest professional one-day race.

Each of the last two editions has been won by an Australian – Matt Goss in 2011 and Simon Gerrans last year. They are joined by four further previous winners of the race in this year’s edition – Mark Cavendish won in 2009, Fabian Cancellara won in 2008, Filippo Pozzato won in 2006 and Alessandro Petacchi won back in 2005.

However, there is a strong favourite this year. Peter Sagan, available at just 7/4, is strongly fancied to win his first Monument, after placing fourth here last year. He has started 2013 in inspired form, winning two stages in both the Tour of Oman and the Tirreno-Adriatico, showing particularly impressive form in winning stage 6 of Tirreno-Adriatico, hanging with the likes of Nibali and Rodriguez on the climbs.

The biggest challenge for Sagan will be coping with the fact that he is the strong favourite. He will be closely man-marked by the rest of the riders, although the onus will be on them to do something different to try and get one of their riders away from the Slovak.

The usual tactic to lose the sprinters is to keep a high pace on the climbs. This is effective in dropping the likes of Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel, but Sagan has proved that he has the ability to stick with the pace on these shorter climbs. Instead, they will have to find a way to escape on Poggio and hope a large enough group can get clear to hang on until the finish.

In the last two years, a breakaway group on Poggio has reached the end. In 2011, an eight-man group containing the likes of Goss, Gilbert, Cancellara, Ballan and Pozzato made it to the end, while last year, a three-man break, consisting of Cancellara, Gerrans and Nibali contested the stage victory.

Multiple riders will have to look to attack on Poggio. The likely attackers should include most of the other strong fancies for the race – Fabian Cancellara, Vincenzo Nibali, Philippe Gilbert, Geraint Thomas, Yoann Offredo, Rinaldo Nocentini amongst others.

The problem is that Sagan is likely to be able to stick with the attacks and none of those names have a chance of beating him in a sprint finish if they cannot shake him.

The two real chances that riders have are to try and surprise him when he is not expecting an attack, or to attack from a greater distance from the finish and look to time-trial to the end.

The obvious candidate here is Fabian Cancellara. He has done it in the past and we know the four-time World Time Trial champion and Olympic gold medallist has the ability to sustain the pace to the line. The two issues are that Sagan knows this and will be keeping a close eye on him, and that Cancellara’s focus might be elsewhere this year. Despite this, if he attacks on the decline off Poggio, he might be able to power his way to the finish.

Another possible candidate could be Geraint Thomas. He has the ability to attack on the climbs and he is a good enough time-triallist that he could stay away, although there may be questions surrounding his form given he has not raced since Omloop Het Nieuwsblad.

The machine that is Team Sky will almost certainly have a plan as well, one that could well involve Geraint Thomas. They have shown over the past eighteen months how good they can be at controlling races. Obvious, this race is one that is likely to be far more difficult to control, but there is no doubt that they are coming into this race with a plan A, and probably several other plans. Whether they are targeting Thomas, or possibly Boassen Hagen, remains to be seen.

More likely though is that various riders attack and Sagan stays with them. He will have to remain alert at all times, especially toward the end of the race. If he can achieve this, he will be tough to beat, although I certainly would not be touching him at the current 7/4.

Tips

Edvald Boassen Hagen @ 33/1 e/w

Geraint Thomas @ 40/1 e/w

Yoann Offredo @ 80/1 e/w

Rinaldo Nocentini @ 125/1 e/w

Sergio Busquets - The Heart of Barcelona

While Lionel Messi will collect all the plaudits for Barcelona’s magnificent 4-0 victory over AC Milan, there was one player that was comfortably the best player on the pitch – Sergio Busquets. Long underrated by most, who know him more as one of the masters of football’s dark arts, he is an integral part of Barcelona’s style of play, and last night he showed the world just why he is so important to the Catalan giants.

Since the turn of the century, the value of a world-class holding midfielder has become apparent to most football fans. Claude Makelele was the first to really be recognised as making the position his own. The “entire engine” of the Real Madrid team, according to Zinedine Zidane, and “the most important, yet least appreciated midfielder at Real” according to Steve McManaman, he was a key part of Mourinho’s revolution at Chelsea.

However, Sergio Busquets can be seen as the evolution of the Makelele role. He is the intelligent, tenacious and aggressive midfield destroyer that Makelele and many holding midfielders since aspired to be. However, he is also the deep-lying playmaker that is the start of virtually every Barcelona attack. He makes what appears to be so simple, so simple. Even when it is not as easy as you think.

Last night, only Xavi made more passes than Sergio Busquet’s 116, and Busquet’s 92% completion rate was higher than Xavi’s. Busquets was not dispossessed once in the entire match, while his teammates Messi and Iniesta had the ball taken off them five times. He recovered the ball thirteen times, ran the midfield and disrupted Milan’s attempts to break on numerous occasions with his pressing.

People might point to the fact that Busquets purely makes simple passes. He does make simple passes, but effectively and intelligently. He is a master at finding his teammates between the lines and in space. It was Busquet’s pass that found Messi between the lines to play the one-two with Xavi that led to the opening goal. A simple pass? Yes. A highly effective pass? Most definitely.

In terms of holding midfielders, Xabi Alonso is possibly the only player that is at the level of Busquets when it comes to finding players between the lines. The difference is that Alonso takes his time to spot the pass. Busquets plays it immediately. He can dissect midfields, casting them as virtually useless, as he finds one of his attacking players in the space between midfield and defence.

His passing is a key strength of his game. He seems to know where he is going to pass the ball, even before the ball has even been passed to him. In a team filled with gifted one and two touch players, Busquets is the master. He does not hold the ball and slow down the play unless it is absolutely necessary. In general, he spends less than two seconds between receiving the ball and moving it on again.

He is also so calm in possession. With the fullbacks pushing so far forward, one of Barcelona’s usual starting points is the ball from the goalkeeper to Busquets, who then moves it on to a teammate. Teams know this, yet do not seem to be able to do anything about it. Again, so simple, yet seemingly beyond other players. 

Against Malaga, Thiago Alcantara, a very gifted young player, was in the same position. He received the ball from his keeper with several Malaga players closing him down. He hesitated, was dispossessed and Malaga scored. A scenario that would never have happened with Busquets, despite being put in that position multiple times every match.

His closing down and tactical intelligence was outstanding last night. When Niang looked to drop deeper to give Milan an option, Busquets always anticipated the ball faster and reached the ball first. Whenever Milan looked to escape their own half, Busquets was there to intercept or to force a mistake. Again, it all sounds so simple. However, when Mascherano tried to do the same, stepping up to make a quick challenge, he misjudged the ball and Niang was able to get in behind and hit the post.

Most holding midfielders receive the ball and will often give it back to the defenders. Simple passing to retain the football. However, the ability that marks Busquets out as a level above is his ability to move the ball forward, whilst still retaining the football. Michael Laudrup once said that the most difficult thing when you start with the ball at the back is “to give it somebody who is facing the opponent’s goal.” This is where Busquets stands out.

He has played the majority of games this season, but there is a noticeable trend is those games that he has been absent. He missed the 2-2 draw in the Copa del Rey against Malaga. He missed both Champions League matches against Celtic. Without Busquets, Barcelona struggle. Put simply, there is no player in world football that could replace him in this Barcelona team.

A wonderful description of Busquets was given by Marti Pernarau – “He is not fast or agile or flexible. He is not strong, nor powerful, nor does he have a low centre of gravity to support himself. But he is indispensible. You do not see him, but he is always there. He is the invisible friend.”

He may be the invisible friend. However, his quality and importance on the pitch for both Barcelona and Spain is becoming more and more visible to fans worldwide. In the words of Spain’s Vicente Del Bosque: “If I could be any player in the world, I would like to be Sergio Busquets. He does everything…”

Dream League or Footballing Nightmare

The idea of a European Super League has been much mooted over the years, often as a bargaining chip by the top clubs looking to extort greater benefits from UEFA. However, there has always been the underlying belief that it would never happen – that it was nothing more than an empty threat.

However, the revelation that Qatar are hoping to create a Dream Football League may bring this previously theoretical scenario into reality. And it would not be a good thing for football fans.

The general basics are as follows. A 24-team tournament, hosted biannually by Qatar and its Gulf neighbours. It would have 16 permanent members, including four Premiership clubs, and eight clubs competing on an invitational basis. It is believed that the organisers are willing to offer Europe’s biggest clubs up to an eye watering €200m per two-year rotation.

It is that money that is where the problems begin. As a comparison, Manchester City received prize money of around £60m for winning the Premiership title last year, although just £15m more than the team finishing bottom of the table. For winning the Champions League, Chelsea received prize money of around £47.3m. In other words, the top English teams would receive almost four times as much for simply competing as they would for winning the title, even before taking prize money into account. They would receive over four times as much as for winning the Champions League.

Each club would be given an annual budget of £2bn, its own stadium, training facilities and medical facilities. Players would be paid up to four times their current salary for the duration of the competition. They would receive accommodation on tax-free artificial islands.

However, this would virtually spell the end for domestic leagues. It would laugh in the face of UEFA’s proposed financial fair play laws. With the participation fee and any associated prize money, the richest group of clubs will immediately increase their revenue by hundreds of millions of pounds. This prize money would be accepted as revenue under the UEFA FFP regulations. As a result, these clubs could spend hundreds of millions more than the rest of the clubs in the league, meaning that no outsider could ever dream of challenging the entrenched elite.

It would be in UEFA’s best interests to fight this development. The sums of money involved with the DFL would no doubt mean that the Champions League would be side-lined by the top clubs, in the same way that the League Cup in England is almost seen as a reserve tournament.

Whether they can get the support from clubs remains to be seen. PSG, owned by Qatar Sports Investment, would likely be a willing signee. Similarly Manchester City with their Emirati ownership could be easily convinced. Even Barcelona, currently sponsored by the Qatar Foundation, could be tempted.

The Dream Football League could potentially shape the future of football. However, far from being a dream for football and fans worldwide, it could be a nightmare that is impossible to wake up from.

There are many ways of judging how good a striker is, varying from the purely subjective to a range of different statistical methods. The total goals scored by a striker over the course of a season are an obvious choice. However, this does not take into account how regularly the striker plays. A striker that plays in all thirty-eight matches and scores twenty goals has clearly had a pretty good season. However, is he better than a striker that has scored fifteen goals, but played just twenty matches?

Therefore, a striker’s minutes per goal ratio is often used as a marker of his quality. The more regularly a striker scores, the better the striker is. Logically, this makes a lot of sense. In the previous example, the striker that scored fifteen in twenty matches will appear higher on the list than the striker that scored twenty goals in thirty-eight matches. But what if the striker that scored fifteen in twenty matches had ten shots on goal in those matches? What if the striker that scored twenty goals scored them from just three shots per match? Now, which is the better striker?

It is a good question. Often, a striker that plays for one of the top clubs will have more opportunities to score goals due to the quality of the build-up play from his teammates. Therefore, it would seem likely that he will score more goals and will score more regularly. Neither of the previous two measures takes how clinical the striker is at taking chances into account.

I decided to have a closer look at this issue. By obtaining statistics on the total number of shots that each striker has taken over the course of the season, and combining this with the number of goals that each striker has scored, we can obtain a measure of the percentage of shots that a striker scores from. As with any measure, there are problems with this that we shall look at more carefully later, but it provides a basic indicator.

In order to try and avoid strikers that had not played regularly from skewing the results, we restricted ourselves to looking at strikers that had scored a minimum of eight goals in the league so far this season. In addition, every player in the sample has played a part in at least fifteen league matches this season. Combining the results from all the qualifying strikers in the top five leagues in Europe (Premiership, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1), we can find the most clinical strikers on the continent.

Most Clinical Strikers in Europe

There are some interesting names that appear in this table. We immediately spot two of the big three strikers in Spain this season. Lionel Messi has scored an incredible forty league goals already this season, but we also note that these goals have come from just 140 shots. As a percentage, this works out that he scores from 28.49% of the shots that he has taken this season. So, while there are only two strikers in Europe that have taken more shots than him (Luis Suarez and Cristiano Ronaldo), he is also one of the more clinical finishers. He combines quantity of shot with quality of finishing – no wonder he is the continent’s leading goalscorer.

Chelsea and Real Madrid target, Falcao also shows well on this measure. His twenty-one goals have come from 84 shots, giving him a conversion rate of 25%, inside the top ten in Europe this season.

It is interesting to note just one Premiership striker in the top 15 – Manchester United’s Javier Hernandez. Long regarded as one of the most natural finishers in England, the statistics do seem to back this up, having scored from 24.24% of his shots on goal this season. It is worth noting that this is down on his figures for the past two seasons, despite still being the most lethal finisher in the division. However, the lack of Premier League strikers does not speak volumes for the quality of finishing in England.

While there are plenty of immediately recognisable names on this list, the top three will be more of a mystery to the average fan. Brest’s Israeli striker, Eden Ben Basat, Nice’s Dario Cvitanich and Cagliari’s Marco Sau are hardly the most well-known strikers in Europe. It could be that those players are just having one-off excellent seasons, or it could be that they truly are natural finishers. Without further analysis, it is difficult to know.

Least Clinical Strikers in Europe

Again, there are some intriguing strikers that appear in this table. Arsenal fans will be disappointed to see that their £9.6m summer signing has actually been the least clinical striker in Europe this season, scoring with just 10.1% of his shots.

Their close rivals, Spurs, will also be disappointed to see Jermain Defoe appearing here. Often regarded as one of the more clinical strikers in the country, the statistics for this season would appear to suggest that this is not the case. Given Defoe’s profligacy in front of goal and Adebayor’s lack of form this year, it is no wonder that Spurs are strongly linked with a new striker in the summer.

We also see a potential reason for Manchester City’s struggles this season. The defending champions find themselves twelve points behind their city rivals and have scored seventeen goals fewer. At the current rate, they will end the season with 69 goals, well short of the 93 that they scored last year. The appearance of both Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez on this list hints at the reason for their lack of goals.

Other Notable Strikers

Eight of the top strikers feature in the middle section of our sample. Manchester United and Bayern Munich target, Robert Lewandowski just misses out on the top 15 with his 22.08% conversion rate. Sir Alex Ferguson might note that he comes comfortably above both Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney.

Two big names to note near the bottom of our sample are Cristiano Ronaldo and Luis Suarez. Their 182 and 157 shots respectively are the highest of any player on the continent in the current season. While they have both scored over twenty goals this season, if they could improve on their conversion rate, their tallies could rocket.

Purely as a note, the mean conversion rate across the entire sample works out at 17.24%, while the median conversion rate would be 17.08%. This would see Edinson Cavani’s 17.14% conversion rate fall almost perfectly at the average, interesting falling below the mean value, but just above the median.

Pitfalls

Earlier, we mentioned that there are inherent problems with virtually every set of statistics and any calculations that we carry out on the sample. This calculation is no different.

The first, and most important, is that this measure does not take into account the quality of each opportunity to shoot. Compare an open goal chance that falls to a striker from two yards and a snapshot from thirty yards. Clearly, the quality of these two shots and the chance that each ends up as a goal is very different. However, in this sample, the two shots would both be classed as equal.

It could be that all twenty-four of Eden Ben Basat’s opportunities have come inside the penalty area or as one-on-one chances. In which case, while his 37.5% conversion rate is still impressive, it is certainly not quite the standout performance that it currently appears. Without detailed statistics and knowledge of the type of opportunities that have fallen to Ben Basat, we cannot make a judgement on this.

Take another example – Francesco Totti. The Roma captain has been one of the leading players in Serie A for the best part of two decades. While he certainly scores his fair share of goals, he does also shoot from range on a regular basis. With such shots, we would expect his conversion rate to be far lower. Conversely though, the opportunity to shoot from such a position will occur far more regularly than a simple chance inside the area, allowing Totti to register his impressive tally of goals.

Another clear issue is that the sample size is relatively small. Cristiano Ronaldo has had the most shots of any player this season at 182, but there are just five players that have registered more than 100 shots this season. There are also twenty-one players in the sample that have registered fewer than fifty shots this season, eleven of which feature in the top 15. Indeed, the only four players with more than fifty shots inside the top 15 are Lionel Messi, Falcao, Mario Mandzukic and Ruben Castro –arguably a list that includes three of Europe’s top strikers. Similarly, there are no strikers inside the bottom fifteen that have had fewer than fifty shots.

A sample of this size is simply not enough to accurately measure conversion rates. Ideally, we would want every player to have taken hundreds, if not thousands, of shots before we begin to converge to each player’s true average. For example, last season, Sergio Aguero had a conversion rate of 17.7% -a figure that puts him slightly above average. This could suggest that this season’s figure is disproportionately low. Maybe goalkeepers have made a series of excellent saves against him. Maybe he has just had a couple of off days. With such a small sample, we cannot rule any of these out, meaning that we cannot have complete confidence in our outcome.

The final issue is that comparing across leagues is always a difficult proposition. There might be an argument that the standard of goalkeeping in one league might be of a higher level than in another. Whether that is valid or not would require greater analysis. However, the lack of Premiership players in the top 15 could just as easily be attributed to a higher standard of goalkeeping rather than a lower standard of striker. A similar argument could be made for the Bundesliga. There are just two strikers that appear in the list from a league that is currently blessed with an abundance of top quality goalkeepers – the likes of Neuer, Zieler, Adler, ter Stegen and Leno are arguably the best crop of keepers that any country has ever had.

Conclusion

While there are a number of pitfalls associated with our analysis, it still draws out a number of interesting results. The first might be that the average striker scores around 17.2% of his shots. In other words, your average striker will score a goal from every 5.8 shots. To many, this may seem relatively low, given the standards we set for our strikers.

However, the small sample size does affect our outcomes. As a test, if we restrict our selections further to only include strikers that have taken at least sixty shots this season, we begin to see the cream rising to the top.

Now, this is arguably a list of ten of the accepted best strikers in Europe. Thus, the argument that the best finishers are the best strikers becomes very much valid.

Five Biggest Premier League Disappointments this Season

Yesterday, we looked at the five most improved players in the Premiership this season. Conversely, while many players have excelled this season and put in standout performances, there are a number of players that have failed to reach the heights that they showed last season.

As a fair comparison, we will use the same criteria as the most improved article. So, using the player rating data from the excellent WhoScored, we can take a look at which players have reduced their rating by the greatest amount from last season. As a small number of appearances can unfairly skew the data, we will only include players that played a part in at least 65% of matches last season and 65% of matches this season. This works out at 25 matches last season and 18 matches this season.

Again, it is important to remember that this is not a list of the worst players in the Premiership, rather those that have shown the biggest drop in performance from last season. We have a number of honourable mentions, or should that be dishonourable, for five players that just missed out on the list – Matthew Etherington (6.6 to 6.31), Joleon Lescott (6.88 to 6.58), Ali Al-Habsi (6.58 to 6.27), Danny Welbeck (7.1 to 6.77) and Wayne Rooney (7.8 to 7.42).

Two players also just missed out on the list by having played one too few matches this season. These players were Emmanuel Adebayor, Junior Hoilett.

5. Sergio Aguero

Last Season’s Rating: 7.46

This Season’s Rating: 7.04

Rating Increase: -0.42

It was a stunning debut season for Sergio Aguero. He scored twenty-three goals in thirty-four appearances for Manchester City, most notable that injury time winner against QPR that sealed the title. Added to this, there were also eight assists, meaning that he was directly involved in 33% of Manchester City’s goals. In a team with so many creative players and scorers, this is a very impressive tally.

However, he has struggled to match those stellar feats in the current campaign. Twenty-three appearances have yielded nine goals, an average of 0.39 goals per game, significantly down from the 0.68 of last season. He has also created just two goals for teammates. Interesting, this does mean that he has still been involved in almost 50% of City’s goals this season, perhaps indicative of why they are virtually out of the title race.

Last season, he was rated as the 7^th best player in the league, while this season, he has slipped to 63^rd. Clearly, he has not necessarily had a bad season, but it has been far from the achievements of last year. One explanation for the lack of goals could be the fact that he is shooting less regularly. Last season, he averaged 3.8 shots per game, putting him fifth overall in the division. This time around, he is averaging just 3.1 shots per game, slipping down to thirteenth overall. While this may seem a relatively small decrease, over the 23 matches that he has played this season, it works out at 16 shots fewer. This season, he has averaged a goal every 12.5 shots, so it would work out at at least one or two extra goals come the end of the season.

He is also making fewer key passes as well. Last season, he averaged 1.7 key passes per match, placing him 31^st overall in the division. This season, this has dropped to just 1.3, falling twenty places to 51^st. Interestingly, he is passing the ball less and running with the ball more. His dribbles have increased from 1.6 to 2.0 per match, although this has come with an associated increase in the number of times that he is dispossessed each match, rising from 2.8 to 3.3.

Clearly the injuries that he has picked on and off through the season have not helped, but he does seem to be struggling to match the wonderful performances of last season. Whether defenders have begun to work out how to stop him remains to be seen, but his drop in form is one of the key factors in Manchester City’s struggles to retain their title.

4. Antonio Valencia

Last Season’s Rating: 7.40

This Season’s Rating: 6.95

Rating Increase: -0.45

Antonio Valencia was one of the unexpected standout players of last season. His magnificent performances on the right wing created numerous chances for his strikers, as demonstrated by the thirteen assists that he picked up in just 27 appearances. Indeed, only David Silva created more assists for his teammates. He was also able to chip in four goals for his team.

However, this season has been a real comedown for the Ecuadorian. Twenty-one appearances have harvested just four assists and no goals, with only one of those assists coming since the start of November.

One of the key reasons for this drop in productiveness is the decline in the number of key passes that he has played this season. Last year, he averaged an impressive 2.4 key passes per match, putting him sixth in the Premiership. However, this season has seen just 1.4 key passes per match – a figure that registers just 44^th in the division, just behind the likes of Barry Bannan and Mark Noble.

This decrease is closely associated with a fall in the quality and quantity of his crossing. As one of the best out-and-out wingers in the division, Valencia relies on his crossing to provide a number of chances for his teammates. Last season, he was delivering around 1.7 successful crosses per match at around a 25% success rate. However, this season, it has dropped to just 1.2 successful crosses per match at around a 20% success rate. Not only is he delivering less crosses in total, the success rate of those that he puts in has fallen as well.

This could be related to a change in the style of play that United have adopted this season. Sir Alex Ferguson has much preferred to play the likes of Welbeck and Rooney in deeper and wider positions, reducing the demand for a true winger in the style of Valencia. Therefore, he has generally played much of his football in a deeper position, seeing far less of the ball. He is averaging over ten passes fewer per match than last season, suggesting that he is far less of an important part of the team in the current campaign.

3. Joe Allen

Last Season’s Rating: 7.11

This Season’s Rating: 6.61

Rating Increase: -0.50

Joe Allen was one of the revelations of last season. In his first season in the Premiership, he was the key cog in the Swansea team that impressed everyone with their attractive passing football. His performances were such that Brendan Rodgers was willing to spend £15m to take him with him to Liverpool. However, his performances have struggled to match those of last season.

Last season, there were just nine midfielders that averaged more passes per match than Joe Allen, and of those, only his Swansea teammate Leon Britton had a higher pass completion rate. Allen’s 60.5 passes per match at a 91.2% completion rate were an exceptional set of statistics. However, one might argue that with just two assists, many of his passes failed to come in a dangerous area of the field, with his 1.3 key passes per match putting him just 59^th in the division.

However, this season, these statistics have dropped. Just 54.4 passes per game sees him drop down to 18^th in the league and while his 90.1% pass completion rate is still impressive, it sees him drop to 9^th amongst midfielders in the division. In addition, his key passes have dropped further to just 0.8 per match, suggesting that he is not providing a great deal of threat to the opposition goal.

While he was never a regular threat on goal at Swansea with just 1.1 shots per game on average and four goals during the season, this has also dropped further this season.  He is averaging just 0.4 shots per game and is yet to score in the current campaign.

Whether the fact that Joe Allen is no longer the standout midfielder in the team as he was at Swansea is making a difference is yet to be seen. With the likes of Steven Gerrard, Stewart Downing and Lucas Leiva alongside him, it seems as though he is content merely to allow them to run the midfield.

Either way, he is not showing the attacking or creative threat that he showed last season, seemingly content to play safer and less threatening passes, perhaps believing in the hype that he received. Liverpool will be hoping that he will grow into the role, otherwise they could be looking at another expensive failure.

2. Charlie Adam

Last Season’s Rating: 7.00

This Season’s Rating: 6.45

Rating Increase: -0.55

After a relatively difficult season at Anfield, Charlie Adam would have been hopeful of rediscovering the form that he showed at Blackpool. Twelve goals and eight assists in the 2010/11 season shot him to prominence and won him a move to Liverpool. However, two goals and six assists in 28 appearances did not do him justice and he was moved on to Stoke this summer.

However, he has struggled to make an impact at the Britannia Stadium. For such a creative player, the fact that he has no created a single assist this season really sums up what a miserable campaign he has had. Last season, he averaged 49.0 passes per match. This figure put him at 37^th in the Premiership and was top of all the Liverpool midfielders. However, this season, he has averaged just 30.8 passes per match, a huge 18.2 passes fewer each game. As one might expect, this has come with a similar fall in the number of key passes, down from 1.9 to 1.1 per match.

The crosses that he has put into the box show a similar decline. While he is certainly not a winger, his technical ability means that he is capable of delivering some high quality balls into the area. He averaged 1.3 successful crosses per match at an average success rate of 21.8% during his year at Anfield. At Stoke, he has delivered just 0.6 successful crosses per match at a success rate of just 14.4%. Given that Stoke have some big strikers that are dangerous in the air, you would expect this to have increased this season, rather than the alarming drop that we have seen.

There has also been a disturbing increase in the number of times that Adam turns the ball over per match. At Liverpool, he kept possession very efficiently, with just 0.4 turnovers per match. At Stoke, this has trebled to 1.2 per match.

The style of football that Stoke play could certainly have played a big role in Adam’s decline. They prefer to play the ball long to the strikers, bypassing the midfield. This directly negated Adam’s strengths in bringing the ball down and playing incisive passes for players to run onto. Interestingly, he is actually playing fewer long balls and fewer successful long balls at Stoke. However, this could likely be explained by the fact that, at Liverpool, he was playing searching balls out to the wingers, or over the top for Suarez to run on to. At Stoke, he does not have the strikers to run onto through balls, as shown by the fact that he has not made a single successful through ball this season.

If Charlie Adam wants to rediscover the form that clinched his move to Anfield, it seems likely that he needs to find a team that will utilise his strengths more effectively. At Stoke, his style of play clashes with that of the team as a whole, and it is no surprise that amongst midfielders that have started at least fifteen matches, he is ranked third from bottom.

1. Samir Nasri

Last Season’s Rating: 7.23

This Season’s Rating: 6.66

Rating Increase: -0.57

Samir Nasri was another player that enjoyed an excellent first season at Manchester City, helping them to clinch the title on the final day. His five goals and nine assists in thirty matches certainly came as a positive for the side and, on his day, he can destroy defences.

However, he has struggled to show that ability in the current campaign. Just one goal and three assists in nineteen appearances are poor for a player of his standard. Even more so when you consider that he scored and created an assist on the opening day in a 3-2 win against Southampton. That means that he has created just two goals in eighteen appearances since then.

One of the obvious areas where he has fallen down this season is his passing and overall involvement in the matches. Last season, he was a key creative threat for Manchester City, as demonstrated by the 52.9 passes he averaged per match at an astonishing 91.1% completion rate. That puts him in the top 25 for total passes and the top 5 for completion rate. This season though, he is making just 39.5 passes per match, although interestingly his pass completion is identical at 91.1%. However, the total passes per match figure sees him drop to 91^st in the league for this season.

The total key passes have also dropped from 2.5 last season to 1.8 this season. Combining all this, it would seem that he is seeing less of the ball, and he is playing safer and less creative passes when he does receive it. While this could be due to the fact that defences are playing deeper against City, forcing them to play simple passes in front of the defenders, it does show that they have lost a great deal of his creative threat.

This is backed up by the fact that he is dribbling the ball no more often this season. Had this been higher, we could have surmised that he was keeping the ball to himself more often, rather than passing, but it would just seem that he is no longer the player that City look to give the ball to when they are looking to create something.

He is also far less of a goal threat this season. His shots per match have dropped from 1.9 to 0.9 this season, which could certainly help to explain why he has failed to chip in with more goals in the current campaign.

Whether his decline is due to the fact that he is receiving the ball less often, or whether he is being given the ball less often because he is struggling to do anything when he receives it, is difficult to determine. Either way though, it is clear that Nasri is no longer the threat that he was last season, and this drop in creative talent could explain why City have often failed to break teams down this season.

Thanks to www.whoscored.com for all ratings and statistics

Five Most Improved Premier League Players this Season

Each season has its standout players. Often, the star men in each season are the same names that have been pinpointed in the past. The likes of Robin van Persie, Steven Gerrard and Wayne Rooney have been among the top players for many of the last five seasons. However, each year, there are certain players that really make the step up and improve their performances from the previous season.

Using the player rating data from the excellent WhoScored, we can take a look at which players have improved their rating by the greatest amount from last season. As a small number of appearances can unfairly skew the data, we will only include players that played a part in at least 65% of matches last season and 65% of matches this season. This works out at 25 matches last season and 18 matches this season.

Clearly, this is not a list of this season’s best players, but rather the most improved. Honourable mentions go to five players that just missed out on the list – Gareth Bale (7.54 to 7.95), Leon Osman (6.8 to 7.23), Leighton Baines (6.97 to 7.4), Sandro (6.85 to 7.33) and Glen Johnson (6.85 to 7.33).

5. Theo Walcott

Last Season’s Rating: 6.76

This Season’s Rating: 7.26

Rating Increase: 0.50

In January, Theo Walcott signed a new contract worth around £100k per week, and his improved performances this season would suggest that this is entirely deserved. In seventeen starts and seven substitute appearances, Walcott has scored eleven goals and created nine assists, meaning that he has been directly involved in twenty goals, which works out at almost 38% of all Arsenal’s Premiership goals this season.

This is a significant improvement on last season, where he scored eight goals and created eight assists in thirty-two starts and three substitute appearances. This meant that he was involved in just over 21% of Arsenal’s goals last season.

He has improved his shots per game rate from 2.2 to 2.7 this season, he runs with the ball more often and has kept his key passes per game constant.

The key to Walcott’s improved performance has been the greater responsibility that he has gained following the departure of Robin van Persie to Manchester United. He is now seen as Arsenal’s key scoring threat and he has thrived under this responsibility. Clearly, he is attempting more shots on goal and has more confidence to run at defenders. In addition, he has kept the creative aspect of his game at a high level, despite playing a number of games as the central striker rather than on the wing.

This is already his best season in terms of both scoring and creating, and he has justified the faith the manager has shown in him and is deserving of a new improved contract.

4. Bryan Ruiz

Last Season’s Rating: 6.70

This Season’s Rating: 7.23

Rating Increase: 0.53

Bryan Ruiz has been Fulham’s second best player behind the rejuvenated Dimitar Berbatov this season, and it is the Costa Rican’s partnership with the Bulgarian that has been key to his improvement this season.

In Holland, Ruiz played as an out-and-out striker at Twente, scoring 35 goals in 65 appearances, helping to fire Steve McClaren’s team to the title. However, at Fulham, he has been converted into more of a creative attacking midfielder, very much as they did with Moussa Dembele. His ability to float in front of the defence allows Berbatov to play as the main striker and their partnership has flourished. In the fifteen games that they have started as a pair, Ruiz has scored twice and created six goals. Berbatov has scored eight goals in those games. In the other eight games without Ruiz, Berbatov has scored just twice.

While he has scored just one more compared with last season, it is on the creative side where Ruiz has stepped up his performance. Just two assists last season has been blown out of the water by the six goals that he has already created this season. He has increased the number of key passes per match from 1.3 to 1.6, while his overall passing accuracy has risen from 81.0% to 84.9%.

However, he is looking to score more often himself. Last season, he averaged just 0.9 shots per game, while he has improved that significantly to 2.1 per game this season. If he can keep up this increased rate, the goals will come. His record in Belgium and Holland shows that he can score goals and it should just be a matter of time until they start to come in the Premiership.

3. Adel Taarabt

Last Season’s Rating: 6.87

This Season’s Rating: 7.46

Rating Increase: 0.59

It seems strange to see Adel Taarabt in this list, given that QPR currently find themselves adrift at the bottom of the Premiership. However, the form of the Moroccan has been one of the bright points of their season and the ratings suggest that he has been the eighth best player in the division this season.

Having been magnificent in their promotion campaign, the mercurial midfielder had a difficult first season in the Premiership with QPR, scoring just two goals and creating three assists. For a player that had scored nineteen goals the previous year, it was disappointing.

While his 2.2 key passes per match last season put him in the top-10 in the league, he has stepped this up again this season, making 2.8 key passes per match. To put this in perspective, only four players are above him and he finds himself ahead of the likes of Gerrard, Mata, Cazorla and Bale.

He also loves to run at defenders. He averages 3.2 successful dribbles per game, comfortably more than any other player in the league. This is a dramatic increase from the 1.4 last season, and shows how he is stepping up to try and create the opportunities for QPR as they look to defy the odds and stay in the division.

Linked to this is the reduced number of times that he is dispossessed on the ball. Last season, only Emmanuel Adebayor and Cheik Tiote were dispossessed more regularly than Taarabt’s 2.9 times per game. However, this season, he keeps possession far more regularly, despite his greater dribbling and key passing statistics, with just 2.2 dispossessions per game.

The Moroccan is doing everything in his power to help QPR avoid relegation. He has stepped up to the plate this season, particularly in a creative role. However, the failure of his teammates to make the most of the passes that he has made and the opportunities he creates when he runs at defenders has hampered their efforts.

2. Luis Suarez

Last Season’s Rating: 7.28

This Season’s Rating: 7.91

Rating Increase: 0.63

Given Luis Suarez was rated inside the top-15 players last season, it is testament to how good he has been this season that he appears in the list. His rating of 7.91 would have seen him top the list last year, and it is only the stunning form of Gareth Bale that sees him drop to second place this season.

Indeed, there are only six players that have a higher rating than Suarez across Europe – Messi, Ribery, Ronaldo, Kießling, Pirlo and Bale. To be rated in such exalted company, it shows how Suarez has developed into one of the best players in world football.

Twenty-one goals in twenty-seven appearances is a fantastic return and he currently leads the race to win the Golden Boot. While he only has four assists, this is predominantly due to the number of goals that he scores himself. Combined, he has been involved in over 47% of Liverpool’s goals this season. This is a clear improvement from last season’s eleven goals and three assists in a season that was disrupted by the ban that he received for racially abusing Patrice Evra.

Whilst he is not the most clinical of strikers, he cannot be criticised from shying away from goal. Last season, he averaged 4.1 shots per game, only behind Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie, and he has stepped this up dramatically this season, attempting 5.8 shots per game. This is an entire shot per game more than the second-placed player on the list. He is also excellent with the ball at his feet, particularly inside the penalty area. His 2.9 successful dribbles per match puts him joint-second with Jack Wilshere and marks another improvement from last season’s 2.5.

However, to suggest that he is a selfish player does him a disservice. His 2.9 key passes per game puts him in joint third place in the league, only behind Leighton Baines and David Silva, and is a significant improvement from the 2.1 he achieved last season.

After the season that he has had, it would be no surprise to see Europe’s top clubs sniffing around Suarez in the summer, especially given it is highly unlike Liverpool will be in the Champions League. This season, he has developed into one of the continent’s biggest stars and Liverpool will be desperate to hang onto their talisman.

1. Marouane Fellaini

Last Season’s Rating: 6.83

This Season’s Rating: 7.63

Rating Increase: 0.80

It would not surprise anyone to find Everton’s star midfielder at the top of this list. He is ranked as the fifth best player in the Premiership this season and is inside the top-30 in Europe.

The key to the improvement that Everton have seen in Marouane Fellaini has been his switch to a more attacking role. In previous seasons, he has played more as a holding midfielder, albeit a threat at set pieces. However, this year, he has been deployed as an attacking midfielder, playing off the striker, and he has developed into a defender’s worst nightmare.

At over 6`4, he is a real threat in the air and is able to hold the ball up excellently. Only three attacking players have won more than Fellaini’s 5.1 aerial duels per match this season and all of those play for teams that utilise the long ball far more than Everton. Last season, he was winning just 2.1 aerial duels per match in the deeper position, and this new threat has proved very valuable for Everton.

He has scored eleven goals already this season, marking the most productive season of his career. Indeed, he had only scored fourteen goals in his previous four seasons for Everton. He is finding plenty of opportunities to get shots in on goal and his finishing is much improved this season. 3.2 shots per game is double the 1.6 he had last season and is clearly a result of his more advanced role.

Unsurprisingly, his tackles and interceptions per game have dropped given his new role. However, compared to other players in his position around the league, he shows up close to the top of the rankings in both these categories, demonstrating the advantage that he can provide to Everton in defending high up the pitch as well.

This positional change in pushing Fellaini up the pitch has been one of the key factors behind Everton’s unlikely push for fourth place in the Premiership this season. They have traditional struggled to score goals. Only two players have scored more goals in a season than Fellaini’s eleven since the turn of the millennium – Louis Saha’s 13 in 2009/10 and Yakubu’s 15 in 2007/08 – and you would certainly not rule out Fellaini catching them.

His improvement this season has been astronomical and has attracted the attention of some of the top clubs, with Chelsea known to be admirers. This is natural given his performances this season and it will be interesting to see whether they earn him a big money move.

Thanks to www.whoscored.com for all ratings and statistics.