Aston Villa: A Statistical and Tactical Analysis (Part 2)

In the first part of this article, we looked at some of the areas where Aston Villa were struggling this season. An inability to successfully utilise the long ball, a lack of passing both in quantity and quality, creating few chances and conceding on a regular basis from corners were the major themes that can be drawn from the statistics.

Recent Games

Since writing the first part, Villa have played two further games against Arsenal and Stoke. Against Arsenal at Villa Park, Villa arguably had the best of the play and deserved at least a point, but conceded a late goal from a corner. In the second part, Villa grabbed a point at the Britannia Stadium after a dour 0-0 draw.

However, in both games, similar problems seemed to be occurring. Villa played 113 long balls, fractionally above their season average, with only 44 of them being classed as accurate. This works out at 38.9% accuracy rate, lower than the previous 43.2% rate.

On the plus side, Villa played 829 passes during those two games, working out at an average of 414.5, significantly above their previous average, suggesting that there seems to be a move toward a more passing game. We will look at some reasons for this later.

Unfortunately, the creating chances problem is still there. Only 5 shots on target in the two games combined is hardly a great return. There were an additional 11 shots off target, totalling 16 shots in the two games, perfectly matching their average.

On the corners front, there was yet another goal conceded from corners against Arsenal of all teams. A simple cross in was met by the 5`10 Yossi Benayoun for a late winner, despite the attention of Gabby Agbonlahor. However, against the powerful physical presence of Stoke, Villa defended well to keep them out, although they did require a combination of crossbar and Agbonlahor to keep out Wilson’s header.

One noticeable change in the backline for these two matches was the inclusion of Carlos Cuellar, in place of James Collins against Arsenal and for the suspended Hutton against Stoke. In the past, he has received criticism for just launching the ball long when he gets it, surrendering possession.

However, against Arsenal, his pass completion rate was the highest of any Villa player at 83%, while against Stoke, his 80% completion rate was only bettered by Stiliyan Petrov and Charles N’Zogbia. Having watched the games, he is getting the ball down and looking to feed the likes of Stiliyan Petrov and Ciaran Clark, the more natural passers in the team.

In comparison, James Collins has a season average pass completion rate of only 68%, significantly lower than the numbers that Cuellar has posted in those two matches. In terms of keeping possession then, we can see that the introduction of Cuellar has improved things.

However, much of the passing came in Villa’s own half, rather than in a threatening position. Against Stoke, there were only two Villa players whose pass completion in the attacking third was over 50% - Charles N’Zogbia at 75% and Stiliyan Petrov at 91%. Against Arsenal, things were better, with 7 players over 50% and four over 70%.

So, what do Villa need to look at doing to improve things further?

Getting the correct personnel

For any tactic to be successfully implemented, the correct players are needed. We will first look at the current options - transfer will be discussed later. The goalkeeper position at Villa is one of the strong points – Shay Given has been excellent this season, while Brad Guzan has filled in very capably for him in the last four matches.

In defence, the usual back four has been Dunne and Collins in the centre, with Warnock on the left and Hutton on the right.

As we have looked at earlier, the inclusion of Carlos Cuellar seems to provide a boost in keeping possession and beginning to build from the back, suggesting that it would be useful to find a place for him in the starting line-up on a more regular basis.

There has also been calls for Chris Herd, the young Australian midfielder, to move back to right-back, replacing Alan Hutton. This argument is predominantly based on the match against Wolves, where he successfully covered this position, but he has been impressing in midfield and is not a natural fullback, so I would resist these calls.

The other player to consider is Ciaran Clark. The young defender was impressive last season, but has struggled to get a place this year. He has come in for the last two matches in a holding midfield role, without impressing hugely. It is not his natural position, so we need to cut him some slack.

Personally, I would like to see Ciaran Clark partnering Richard Dunne in the centre. Clark is a very talented youngster and also comfortable on the ball. He has been playing in the midfield due to his passing ability and tackling skills, so by shifting him back into his natural position, he will bring a bit of calmness into the backline.

Stephen Warnock is an automatic choice at left-back, as much due to lack of alternatives as anything. However, after falling out with Houllier last season, he has returned this year and has been fairly solid for the majority of the season.

At right-back, I would like to see Carlos Cuellar replace Alan Hutton. While it would be sacrificing some attacking threat, he is a much more solid defender, and has shown that he is good at finding a midfielder with the ball now, rather than just lofting it forward. He has also worked hard at his attacking ability, and while he falls behind Hutton in this respect, he will provide an option.

The centre of midfield has been a problem for Villa this season. While Stiliyan Petrov has been a rock in the centre this year, filling the other positions has been more difficult. Fabian Delph, Stephen Ireland, Ciaran Clark, Chris Herd, Emile Heskey, Jermaine Jenas and Barry Bannan have all played here, although none of them have shown the performance to make the position theirs.

Unlike previous seasons, McLeish has given Petrov much more of a licence to go forward, and this has been repaid with three goals and two assists, making him third top scorer and second highest creator in the side.

I would like to see a three-man central midfield, with one holding midfielder, one box-to-box player and one attacking midfielder, playing just off the striker.

Petrov has shown this season that he is capable of playing the box-to-box role, despite continuing concern from many fans over his stamina. He has made more passes than any other Villa player this season and outside the back four, has made more tackles than any other player in the team.

Looking at existing Villa players, it seems obvious that the attacking position should be filled by either Barry Bannan or Stephen Ireland. One other option would potential be to use Charles N’Zogbia in this role, where he often played for Wigan last season, where he grabbed nine goals and seven assists, as compared with his zero goals and one assist so far this season.

There are not too many options for the two wing positions. Marc Albrighton had an excellent first season last year, but has been disappointing this year. He played well against Arsenal, but has been invisible in the majority of matches this season and needs to add something more to his game as defenders are beginning to be able to predict him too easily.

Charles N’Zogbia has been slowly improving after a slow start, although needs to start getting amongst the goals if he is to begin to repay his transfer fee. Gabby Agbonlahor has been playing in this winger/wide-forward position this season and has been excellent. He has five goals and seven assists already, and his powerful running has caused plenty of problems for defences all season.

Up front, Darren Bent has been in fairly poor form, but he still has five goals and he is still one of England’s best strikers. Outside of him, there are not too many options – Emile Heskey is without a goal since mid-August and has only nine goals in 79 games for Villa; Nathan Delfouneso and Andreas Weimann are still to show that they can cut it at this level.

You will notice that I have left out the holding midfielder. This is because I don’t believe that Villa really have any player capable of filling that role at the moment. Chris Herd has been playing there so far with some success, although I am still to be convinced he is Premiership quality – as a backup, he would be a solid player, but I would be looking for something slightly more in a starter. We will look at this in the transfers section later.

Switch to man-marking from corners

So far this season, McLeish has been employing more of a zonal marking system from corners. This is where each player marks a zone, generally in the danger zones of the near post and the penalty spot, rather than picking up individual players.

Employed effectively, this can be a successful tactic, as demonstrated by Barcelona, but it has clearly not been working at Villa under either Houllier or McLeish. It is always susceptible to runners from deep, who are able to get a running jump over the static defenders, and it requires the two or three key defenders to win the majority in the air. It also has the problem that teams can exploit it by overloading certain areas in the penalty box, leaving one defender having to cope with several attackers.

The problem here is that if the ball drops loose in the area, the attacking side can find themselves with several players competing with fewer defenders to get on the end of the rebound. This is a problem that Villa have found this season with five of the ten goals conceded from corners having come from a rebound situation, where the ball has dropped loose in the area.

A switch to a more old-fashioned man-marking tactic from corners could be more effective in the short-term. If each defender is tasked with a set attacker, it should negate the issue of overloading, and would shift the responsibility to individual players, rather than having the team looking around to try and figure out who is to blame for the goal.

With the earlier starting line-up, we have Richard Dunne, Carlos Cuellar and Ciaran Clark, who are all strong in the air, while Stephen Warnock and Stiliyan Petrov can play a role in picking up some of the smaller players. In addition, either Chris Herd or the new defensive midfielder would also be an asset picking up a further player.

Cut down the long balls

While we have seen that Villa don’t play an excessive number of long balls, it has not been a successful tactic. Darren Bent is not a target man and it just results in possession being squandered too regularly.

There is nothing wrong with playing the odd long ball now and again. With the pace of the likes of Agbonlahor and N’Zogbia, playing balls over the top behind the fullbacks can be an effective tactic. However, aimlessly lofting the ball up toward Bent, with no other players near him, is certainly not.

Unless McLeish is looking at bringing a target man into the club in January, there needs to be a move toward shorter passing. Cuellar has been good at this in the last two matches, and the addition of Clark to the defence should help to improve this further. However, it does rely on good movement from the midfielders to give the defenders an option. Stiliyan Petrov is very good at this, but it needs another midfielder to look for the ball on a more regular basis.

This is one of the major problems of having played Emile Heskey in midfield. He is not a midfielder and is not hugely comfortable on the ball. Fabian Delph has been poor, and his first touch has let him down far too often this season, and similarly Chris Herd puts himself about, but is not a natural ball-player. It means that by closely marking Petrov, teams can limit the options for the defenders, usually resulting in a long ball toward Bent.

With Darren Bent, Gabby Agbonlahor, Charles N’Zogbia and Marc Albrighton, there is plenty of potential for Villa to counter-attack rapidly – a tactic that was very effective under Martin O’Neill. Playing quick, short balls from the defence is the basis for this and should be promoted far more often.

Villa do not have the creative players to break down defences at the moment, so quick breaks should be something McLeish is looking towards.

Transfer Market

Out

Working on the assumption that there is not much money to spend for McLeish in January leads to the return of the much-loved sell-to-buy policy. Whether Lerner does make additional money available to McLeish remains to be seen – last January, Houllier was able to splash out £24m on Darren Bent, although supposedly this was offset against the Young sale in the summer.

However, to begin with, we will assume that Villa can only spend what they recoup. The first player to offload would be James Collins. He has been a good servant for Villa over the past three years, but he makes too many mistakes and plays far too many long balls, and seems unable to change this. Newspapers have linked him with a move to either Newcastle (to provide cover for the injured Steven Taylor) or to Sunderland (to re-join former boss, Martin O’Neill). The rumoured fee is around £5m.

If there is any possible way to sell Habib Beye, or come to an arrangement to terminate his contract now, it should be taken. He has barely played for Villa in years and is currently on loan at Doncaster, although Villa continue to pay him £38k per week. While there may be no transfer fee recouped from this move, it would free up the wage budget. Given he has six months left on his contract, this would save almost £1m in wages.

I would also look to move on the pair of Stephen Ireland and Fabian Delph. While there is definitely a talented player inside Stephen Ireland somewhere, he has failed to show it for several years now, and when he is being paid around £80k per week, this could be much better utilised elsewhere. Even if you could only bring in around £4m for him, that would be an additional boost to the kitty.

When Fabian Delph came in the summer of 2009 for £6m, he was built up as an excellent young player. However, a serious injury in April 2010 curtailed his progress and he seems to have struggled to rediscover his form. Given that he has still failed to really show his talent at any level other than League 1, it might be worth sacrificing him to raise fund. He still has the reputation from his Leeds days and one would imagine Villa could recoup most of the money they spent on him. If we estimate somewhere in the region of £5m for him, that would be about right.

Finally, I would be looking to offload Nathan Delfouneso. Despite plenty of hype, he is still to show that he can cut it at this level and I would imagine there would be a lower Premiership team or Championship side who would be willing to spend around £2m on him.

With these transfers out, it would leave around £15m to spend for McLeish in January, as well as freeing up around £200k per week in wages (or around £5m before the summer).

In

The key position to bring a player in would be a new holding midfielder. For me, there are two options – either sign a player on a permanent contract or bring a player in on loan until the end of the season.

If McLeish was looking to sign a player on a permanent deal, one obvious name would be Wigan’s Mohamed Diame. He is a big, strong physical presence, which would bolster a fairly lightweight Villa midfielder. He gets about the park well and his pass selection is pretty good, as one would expect from a player who has spent three years under Roberto Martinez. He is out of contract in the summer and would likely be available for around £2m.

The foremost option in the loan category would be Arsenal’s Emmanuel Frimpong. Again, he is a strong physical presence, who is not afraid to get stuck in, and having come through the Arsenal ranks under Wenger, he is very comfortable on the ball. Wenger has admitted that he would be willing to let Frimpong go on loan in January, so he could be a very good short-term option.

One club meant to be busy looking to offload some squad players in January is Manchester City. One particular player catches the eye – Nedum Onuoha. The former England U21 international had a good season on loan at Sunderland last season, but has found himself without a game back at his parent club this season.

Rumoured to be available for around £4m, he would be an excellent signing to boost Villa’s backline, being able to play anywhere across the back. He could provide competition in both fullback positions, as well as covering in the centre if required.

Another player that is out of contract in the summer is Blackburn’s Junior Hoilett. One of the few shining lights of Blackburn’s season, he is expected to be the subject of several bids from various clubs in January. He would be an ideal player to provide added talent in the wing positions or up front. Available for around £6m, he would be a very good signing.

One final signing I would recommend would be Crystal Palace’s Nathaniel Clyne. The young fullback is out of contract in the summer and has told the club he does not want to sign a new contract. Therefore, they may be tempted to try and cash in on him in January. An offer of around £3m should be enough to tempt Palace to sell. He would be an excellent prospect for the future and provide good competition for Warnock and Cuellar or Hutton.

Those four players would replace those that would be leaving the club and strengthen the team, both in the short and longer term.

However, if Randy Lerner is willing to make any additional funds, whether that be out of his pocket or from the sales in the summer, available, then there are one or two other names that could be worth targeting.

Leverkusen are willing to listen to offers for Swiss international, Tranquillo Barnetta. Another of those out-of-contract in the summer, he would be available for around £4m, and would certainly add some additional quality on the wing, providing added competition for the likes of N’Zogbia and Albrighton.

One more expensive option would be Hoffenheim’s Icelandic international, Gylfi Sigurdsson. Formerly of Reading, he had an excellent season last year, scoring nine goals from midfield, but has fallen out of favour with the new manager this season. An expert from long range and set pieces, he would provide an additional threat that Villa do not currently have.

One stumbling block might be the transfer fee, which I would expect to be in the region of £8.5m, but if Lerner wants to make the money available, he could do much worse than look toward Sigurdsson.

With the sell-to-buy transfers and this little extra indulgence, Villa could be lining up with a much stronger side come the end of January.

With Shay Given returning in goal, the defence would have Hutton, Clyne and Cuellar battling for the right-back slot, with Warnock or Clyne on the left side. In between, Richard Dunne and Nedum Onuoha has the potential to be a solid partnership, with Cuellar and Clark also providing options for McLeish.

With either Diame or Frimpong acting as the midfield destroyer, Stiliyan Petrov in the middle and either Barry Bannan, Charles N’Zogbia or Gylfi Sigurdsson providing the attacking threat as the third midfielder, there would be plenty of options.

The width would be provided by two of Charles N’Zogbia, Marc Albrighton, Junior Hoilett and Gabby Agbonlahor, all of whom could switch between either wing to add an additional threat.

Finally, Darren Bent would continue as the lone striker. Admittedly, there is not much backup for him were he to pick up an injury, but Agbonlahor or Hoilett could step up, and Emile Heskey is there to provide a more physical presence if need be.

The introduction of Cuellar, Onuoha and Diame or Frimpong would add a physical presence that Villa often seem to lack, while there is ample pace among whichever combination of the front four that McLeish chooses to pick.

Conclusion

There is plenty of scope to improve the side in the January transfer window, which could strengthen the team and begin to move it toward a more effective style of play given the options available.

It would see players coming into the defence who are more comfortable, or at least more willing, to try and pass the ball out of defence, as well as midfielders who want the ball to provide the options for the pass.

Counter-attacking football would still be a good way forward, given a lack of outstanding creative players. With the pace and lack of physical presence in the attacking options, quick attacks at pace would seem to be the natural way forward, and it can be very effective as Villa saw under Martin O’Neill.

These are all realistic signings for realistic transfer fees. Whether we see anything like this in January remains to be seen, but there is certainly plenty of scope for improvement.

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Djokovic: Next Federer or Wilander?

In 2011, Novak Djokovic was undoubtedly the best player on the planet. Ten titles, including three Grand Slam titles and five Masters 1000 titles, as well as a 70-6 record, placed him well ahead of all his nearest competitors. He became only the fifth player to win three Grand Slams in a year, joining the illustrious group of Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal, Jimmy Connors and Mats Wilander. His 41-match winning record fell one short of John McEnroe’s record.

However, the question remains of how he will perform in 2012. Of those players who won three Grand Slams in a year, neither Connors nor Wilander won a Grand Slam the following year, while Nadal was only able to muster a single Slam. Indeed, Wilander would never reach a final again.

Before this year, Djokovic was entrenched at number 3 in the world with a single Grand Slam title to his name. The real springboard for him was leading Serbia to victory in the Davis Cup in late 2010.

Circumstances certainly helped him in the first Grand Slam of the year. The injury problems that plagued the 2009 champion, Rafa Nadal, ruled out one challenger, while he would certainly have been happier playing Andy Murray in the final than Roger Federer. However, we can take nothing away from the Serb, who was a worthy champion.

From this point, his confidence was sky-high and, for a long spell, he was unbeatable. The problems came once injuries and fatigue began to take their toll, and it remains to be seen whether he will come back at the incredibly high level that he found for much of 2011.

The later part of the season saw a few disturbing problems returning for the Serb. The shots that he had worked hard to improve during the year began to show some of their previous inconsistency. The serve in particular, which had improved measurably during 2011, began to show major signs of weakness, particularly in London.

Rafa Nadal will have spent the winter studying and planning how to defeat Djokovic as well. Boosted by a stunning Davis Cup win, just as Djokovic was at the end of 2010, Nadal will be back better than ever in 2012.

Despite claims of a disappointing season, Nadal reached three Grand Slam finals, five Masters finals, winning one, and picked up one additional title in Barcelona. Six of his seven losing finals came at the hands of the Serb, and by the end of the year, you got the impression that Nadal felt he could not touch Djokovic.

One month off, you suspect Nadal will come back with renewed confidence and desire. Roger Federer also hinted in the latter part of the year that he was still a contender.

The first player to beat Djokovic this season in Roland Garros, he should also have beaten him at the US Open, when he had two match points on his serve for a place in the final.

However, following that disappointment, Federer did not lose again in 2011, racking up 17 straight victories, dropping only six sets, as his rivals faded. His run has raised suspicions that those writing him off could be premature, and he goes into the Australian Open as a real contender for the title.

The one major question mark over Federer is his desire and motivation for the game. He has already said that his major goal for 2012 is Olympic gold, the one accolade that is missing from his record-breaking career. However, on his day, he is still capable of beating any player, including an on-form Djokovic.

Andy Murray remains a mystery. He reached the final four of all four Grand Slams, including the final in Australia, but still that first Grand Slam title eludes him. He shows glimpses of the talent that he undoubtedly possesses – his back-to-back titles in Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai was evidence of that, especially his demolition of Nadal in Japan – but he still struggles to produce on the big occasions.

Novak Djokovic will not have another season as good as this I would predict. Nadal will be back with a vengeance, buoyed by his Davis Cup triumph, and a new game-plan to beat his latest rival. Roger Federer will continue to be a danger on his day – he may not have the consistency that he had a few years ago, but his top level is still enough to beat any player on tour.

Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro will remain a real threat for any top player in any given tournament. Whether they have the consistency to win a slam next year remains to be seen, but they could easily take out one of the big three.

It would be surprising if Djokovic followed in the footsteps of Connors and Wilander and failed to win a slam in 2012 – there is no real weakness in his style of play for opponents to exploit as those two experienced. However, it would be just as surprising if he was able to emulate Federer’s 2007 season and repeat his three slams, or come close to Roger’s 81-4 season in 2005 or his 92-5 2006 season.

He will rightly go into the Australian Open as the favourite with the bookmakers. I would be surprised though if he comes out as the winner at the end of the fortnight. However, if he can back-up his 2011 with a similar season in 2012, he will move up alongside the likes of Federer as a true long-term dominant champion.

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Is 'Negrito' a racial term?

The Luis Suarez and Patrice Evra has thrown up some interesting debates over racism and different cultural aspects. In this particular case, the debate is really over the possible racial connotations of the word ‘negrito’.

There is no question of whether Luis Suarez used the word or not. He himself has admitted using the word, confirming the allegations by Patrice Evra. However, the question is whether ‘negrito’ should be viewed as a racial slur in England.

Firstly, we need to understand a few linguistic points. In Spanish, black translates to the word ‘negro’. A person with black skin, often with an African heritage, would be described as ‘negro’. Adding the –ito onto the end of a word in Spanish turns it into a diminutive version. For example, Manchester United’s Javier Hernandez is known as ‘Chicharito’ or ‘Little Pea’. The Spanish word for pea is chicharo, so by adding the –ito to the end forms the diminutive.

So, on a purely linguistic level, when applied to a person, ‘negrito’ would mean little black man. However, while using the diminutive in Spanish can simply be used as a descriptive term, it is also often used to denigrate a term, potentially turning it into an insult.

Clearly, Luis Suarez used the term in an insulting way toward Patrice Evra in an attempt to wind up the Manchester United full-back and get under his skin – something he has succeeded in.

Using insults to wind opposition players up is not an unusual occurrence on a football pitch. Just watching a football match on TV, it is possible to see players insulting each other with varying degrees of severity.

Indeed, in other sports, it has become a regular part of the game. In cricket, sledging is a tactic that has been used to unsettle opposing players for decades. One of the most famous instances of sledging was between Australia’s Glenn McGrath and Zimbabwean Eddo Brandes. McGrath asked Brandes, “Why are you so fat?” to which the Zimbabwean replied, “Because every time I fuck your wife, she gives me a biscuit.”

I have read a lot of articles talking about how Evra was offended by the term from Suarez. That should not be what the debate should come down to. There are plenty of things that people could say to someone that they would be offended by.

However, if the term did have racial connotations, then the debate takes on a whole new perspective. The problem seems to be differing views on how the term ‘negrito’ should be taken.

The crux of Luis Suarez’s defence is centred on the argument that it is not viewed as a term with racial connotations in Central and South America, including Uruguay where he is from. On the flip side, Patrice Evra has clearly viewed it as a term that to him contains racial significance.

This is the problem that the Football Association faced.

Luis Suarez has been in England for almost a year, plus he spent five years in Holland with Ajax and Groningen. There is therefore an argument that he should have by now realised the negative and racial connotations of such terms in this country. When playing in England under English regulation, he should adapt to follow English conventions.

However, less than a month after the incident at Anfield, we find the former Liverpool youngster, Dani Pacheco, using the term on Twitter. In several tweets to Barcelona’s Thiago Alcantara, Pacheco refers to Thiago as ‘negrito’. No complaints or comment was made here, allowing us to see the acceptance of the term in this situation.

An interview with Manchester United’s Javier Hernandez, while he was playing in Mexico, shows us another instance. Referring to his teammate, Omar Esparza, he said, “I liked the goal of the negrito. I think it is a sign that Chivas youth, we are ready to respond in big games.”

Again, it would appear that ‘negrito’ is used in a perfectly acceptable context in this situation.

Clearly, in both of these instances, the term is being used in a friendly context, whereas the use of the term by Luis Suarez was meant in a more confrontational situation.

However, it highlights the difficulty for the FA in this case. It would appear that ‘negrito’ is a fairly commonly used and accepted term in Spanish, but by not taking action, the FA would struggle to argue their case against racism in football.

A ban for Suarez is probably the correct outcome, given the connotations that terms similar to this contain in English, but it is easy to argue that the length of the ban seems a little excessive. Eight matches is a significant period of time – over a fifth of the season – for what would appear to be an error based on cultural misunderstandings.

Naturally, we are unlikely to ever know whether Suarez did mean the comment with racial connotations, but even the panel has admitted that they do not feel that Suarez is racist. It has been one of the most complex cases in memory for the FA to have to deal with and it is easy to understand both sides of the debate in this instance. Liverpool and Suarez will appeal and it seems likely that the ban may well be reduced, although not overturned entirely.

However, it does suggest a need for educating foreign players and setting down clear guidelines to try and clear up these cultural differences. This is a role that the PFA should be getting involved in and it is pleasing to see the head of the organisation, Gordon Taylor, understanding this in a statement today.

Clearly there is no place for racism in football or anywhere in life. However, this case has raised the question of different cultural perceptions of racism and racial terms.

This is unlikely to be the end of the saga and it is likely to continue to run for several weeks still.

Aston Villa: A Statistical and Tactical Analysis (Part 1)

Having not been the most popular choice in the first place, Alex McLeish finds himself under growing pressure, if not from the club itself, from the fans. His style of football is hardly crowd-pleasing and, despite sitting in the top half of the Premiership table, the position is deceptive, given the fixtures played thus far.

McLeish was not the choice of many Villa fans following his switch from Birmingham

So, what can McLeish do to change things and try and rectify some of the recurring problems that have been costing Villa this season? From all outside impressions, finances are likely to be tight come January, so wholesale replacements are unlikely. Any changes are likely to have to be made with the existing personnel, or at least, with revenue generated from selling players.

We will test some of the theories about Aston Villa this season by looking at the statistics to see whether they are provable, then move on to try and find some solutions to rectify the problems.

Theory 1: Aston Villa play too many long balls

One of the major gripes with Alex McLeish’s team this season is a seeming reliance on hitting the long ball. With Darren Bent (at under six foot) often playing as a lone striker, he struggles to win much in the air against centre-backs, resulting in Bent unable to get into the game and Villa unable to build attacks.

So, if this is true, what statistics would we expect to find to prove this? Conveniently, there are statistics out there on the number of long balls played by each team. In their sixteen matches this season, Aston Villa have played 871 long balls, or just over 54 per match. At first glances it seems high, although some comparison is needed.

Stoke are a team renowned for the long ball game. The statistics show that they have indeed played more long balls than Villa, racking up 969 in their sixteen matches so far. However, the statistics go on to show that there are actually eight teams in total that have played more long balls than Villa this season. Indeed, there are four other teams (Wolves, QPR, Sunderland and Norwich) that have played more long balls than Stoke this season.

It would therefore seem that Villa do not play an abnormal number of long balls. However, do other teams employ the long ball more successfully? We have statistics on number of accurate long balls, so we can work out a percentage of long balls that accurately find their target.

Villa are one of only five teams whose percentage drops below the 50% and only Blackburn have a lower percentage of accurate long balls than Aston Villa’s 43.2%. We might also suspect that a long ball to Darren Bent is likely to be less successful than a long ball to the likes of Stoke’s Peter Crouch or Norwich’s Steve Morrison.

Darren Bent getting a rare touch of the ball this season

This minor point is backed up by the fact that Darren Bent has touched the ball on average fewer times than any other player in the Premier League this season. His 24.6 touches per game puts him comfortably below his nearest challengers of Danny Graham (28.7), Ryan Shawcross (35.2) and Demba Ba (35.4).

So while Aston Villa may not play any more long balls than other mid- and lower-table sides, when they do play them, they are less accurate and to an unsuitable target.

Theory 2: An inability to play shorter passes and build attacks

Linked to the long ball argument, there has also been an accusation that Villa struggle to build attacks through passing and tend to give away possession cheaply on a regular basis.

The obvious statistic to look at here is the number of passes attempted in open play along with the number of passes completed in open play. In their sixteen matches this season, Aston Villa have attempted 6,196 passes, completing 4,317 of them. This converts to a pass accuracy of 69.7%.

Again, we need to compare these figures to the other teams in the division to get a true representation. In terms of the raw number of attempted passes, only Blackburn (5,972) and Stoke (5,394) have a lower number than Aston Villa. The newly promoted teams all have a higher figure, with Swansea’s astonishing 9,310 sitting behind only Arsenal, and being over 50% higher than Villa’s tally.

However, it is only worth attempting a lot of passes if you are going to successfully complete a high number of them. Maybe Aston Villa do not attempt many, but have a high success rate?

Villa's pass success rate does not make for happy viewing

Alas, the figures once again make depressing reading. Aston Villa’s pass accuracy of 69.7% places them in 18^th place in the Premier League table, ahead of the usual suspects, Stoke and Blackburn. Indeed, Swansea have the highest pass completion rate in the Premier League, linking in nicely with their high number of attempted passes.

Last season, Gerard Houllier attempted to change the system to a more fluid, passing game. How does last season compare with this one? This season, Alex McLeish’s Villa have attempted an average of 387.3 passes per match. In comparison, Gerard Houllier’s Villa attempted an average of 444.5 passes per match with a slightly higher success rate of 70.9%.

So, Aston Villa attempt relatively few passes relative to the rest of the division and complete even fewer of them. Not a set of statistics that helps the case for McLeish.

Theory 3: Villa struggle to create and take chances

The £24m signing of Darren Bent was meant to be the coup that would see Villa finding the net on a regular basis. After all, Bent has scored double figures in the league in all but one of the past nine seasons.

However, he has struggled to find his form this season, which could partly be explained by a lack of opportunities to touch the ball, let alone score goals.

So, do Villa struggle to create chances relative to the sides around them in the league? The statistics would tend to agree. Only Stoke have had fewer shots on goal than Aston Villa’s 134 this season. This works out at just over 8 shots per game.

A relatively unfamiliar sight this season

As if that wasn’t depressing enough, Villa also finish 19^th out of the twenty Premier League sides in terms of shot accuracy. Villa’s 36.6% shooting accuracy is only beaten into last place by QPR’s 33.8%, although QPR higher total shots means that they have still had more shots on target this season.

Combine those statistics and we discover that Villa have had a grand total of 49 shots on target in the Premier League this season, or fractionally over 3 shots on target per match.

Interestingly, there are six teams that have scored fewer goals and another three that have scored the same number of goals as Villa. Villa’s 18 goals from only 49 shots on target mean that they have been scoring 36.7% of the time that they have a shot on target.

However, the problem remains that Villa simply do not create enough chances. Regardless of whether they take their chances when they do come, 3 shots on target per match is simply not enough to ensure that you score the goals to win matches.

Theory 4: Villa cannot defend set pieces

This is the simplest theory to prove out of them all. Last season, Villa conceded 14 goals from corners, which was a joint league highest, and meant that almost 25% of the goals conceded came from corners.

In the early weeks of the season, things seemed to have improved on this front. During the first seven games of the season, Villa did not concede a single goal from a corner.

However, worryingly, the problem seems to have resurfaced with a vengeance in recent weeks. In the past nine matches, Villa have conceded nine goals from corners. In other words, Villa have been conceding one goal from a corner every match.

Martin Skrtel heads in the almost customary goal from a corner

Alex McLeish is renowned from his Birmingham days of creating a solid defensive unit, and to be fair, from open play, Villa have not conceded too many goals. Although the defense may look disjointed and last-ditch at times, Villa have conceded only 10 goals from open play in 16 Premier League matches this season.

Combining these facts, it shows that just over 43% of the goals that Villa have conceded this season have come directly from, or as a result of, a corner.

In theory, this would suggest that if McLeish could sort out the problems from corners, he would have the cornerstone of a solid defensive line from which he could progress to look at other areas of the side.

Conclusion

Having looked at the statistics, they would appear to more or less tally with the general view of Villa fans so far this season.

While Villa have not played any more long balls than the majority of similar teams, the actual success rate is far lower, suggesting that the players playing the long ball and the target are not quite right. The passing has been lacking in both quantity and quality, which leads on to the next problem of creating a lack of chances.

Finally, corners are still a worrying weak point for what is otherwise becoming a relatively solid Villa defense in open play.

In the second part of this article, I will look at how McLeish could tweak his tactics to try and solve some of these problems, and at some realistic targets for the upcoming January transfer window that could fit into this new system.

(Click here for Part 2)

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ASPIRE Academy: Qatari Aspirations or Underhand Tactics?

Ever since they astonishingly won the right to hold the 2022 edition of the World Cup, Qatar has been under the spotlight in the footballing sense. For a country that has never qualified for a World Cup and who have only just qualified for the knockout stages of the Asian Cup for the first time, it was an unbelievable decision.

However, there is one foundation lurking in the background that was a key factor in winning the bid, and is set to play an even bigger part in attempting to develop Qatar into a force that will not be embarrassed when the eyes of the world are on the country in just over ten years time. That foundation is the ASPIRE Academy.

Established in 2004 by the ruling Al-Thani family, it set itself the dual aims of identifying and transforming promising student athletes into world-renowned champions across a wide range of sports. 

As with many projects backed by the oil-rich elite, no cost has been spared in looking to develop a world-leading location.

The ASPIRE Academy is housed in state-of-the-art facilities, based around the world’s largest purpose-built indoor sports dome. With the upcoming World Cup, football has been the sport that they have predominantly been focussed on, and this is demonstrated by the fact that they have hired 19 dedicated football coaches on permanent contracts.

The standard of the coaches that they have hired is very impressive as well. The likes of Arnold Rijsenburg, responsible for spotting and developing the likes of Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Romelu Lukaku; Paul Nevin, the architect behind Fulham’s academy; Luis da Silva, the former first team coach at Porto; Felix Sanchez Bas, a former Barcelona academy coach, who worked closely in the development of the likes of Fabregas and Bojan.

However, the jewel in their footballing staff is undoubtedly Josep Colomer. Colomer was formerly a scout at Barcelona and was the man responsible for discovering and bringing Lionel Messi to the Nou Camp. As head of scouting at ASPIRE, he is tasked with discovering the stars of the future from around the globe and bringing them to the academy.

The centre-piece of his plan is the ASPIRE Football Dreams project. It is the largest talent search in the history of football, testing over 600,000 aspiring young footballers from around the globe each year. 

From these 600,000 youngsters, only 23 will eventually make the cut for the opportunity to train at the academy alongside the Qatari students.

Students at the academy are enrolled from the early age of 12. As well as receiving a full high-school education, they will also receive the benefits of coaching from the professional coaching staff and cutting-edge sports science in long 12 hour days.

As well as this, they are constantly being tested against some of the best youth teams from around the world. In the past twelve months alone, they have played friendly matches against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, Liverpool, Porto and Brazil. With this preparation and opportunities, it gives the students a wonderful chance to maximise their talent.

The ASPIRE academy also sends teams to tournaments abroad during the summer. This summer, they competed in the prestigious Milk Cup youth tournament in Ireland. ASPIRE cruised through the group, scoring 13 goals without conceding, before crushing Desportivo Brasil 6-1 in the semi-final.

However, the icing on the cake would come against the favourites, Manchester United, in the final. Against a team that included two FA youth cup winners, ASPIRE turned on the style to inflict a 5-1 defeat on the English side, after a hattrick from Ibrahima Drame.

Despite the success at the youth level, the ultimate ambition is to provide graduates who can go on and represent Qatar at the national level. In September 2010, they saw their first graduate make their debut for the national team. Fahad Khalfan al Bulushi came on as a second half substitute against Bahrain to mark a potential turning point in Qatari football.

Since then, they have had a further four graduates appear for the full national side and have 13 representing the U23 team from just three graduating classes. They have also produced players for Ghana’s world-beating 2009 U20 World Cup side, Nigeria’s U17 World Cup runners-up squad in 2009 and South Africa’s current U17 team. By the time the 2022 World Cup rolls around, there will have been a further 11 graduating classes.

However, there is more under the surface than would appear. The Football Dreams project is represented in 15 countries around the world. Interestingly, six of those are in countries represented on FIFA’s powerful 24-man executive committee. Out of those countries in South Asia, Latin America and Africa with members on the committee, Brazil and Argentina are the only ones without one of their projects.

Cynics have suggested that they used this to influence the vote for the 2022 World Cup. Shortly before the vote, a new project was opened in Paraguay with the help of Paraguayan CONMEBOL President, Nicolas Leoz. Conveniently, Leoz was believed to have been instrumental in shepherding the South American bloc of countries to vote for the Qatari bid.

It has also been suggested that the ASPIRE academy is part of an underhanded policy to naturalise foreign athletes. Qatar has been known in the past to have offered passports to top athletes – many African distance runners and Bulgarian weight-lifters have switched allegiance over the past decade. Indeed, in their last World Cup qualifying match, the Qatar squad included no fewer than 11 players that had been born outside of the nation.

However, ASPIRE has denied that naturalising athletes is part of its policy and claim that foreign students are encouraged to play for their home countries after graduating from ASPIRE. Andreas Bleicher, the ASPIRE sporting director, argued that, “when making agreements, we are not requiring them to play for Qatar. A player might be here for five years, and if he wants to play for Qatar, it is upon the player concerned.”

Despite what they may claim, there is a convincing argument. Brought over at the age of 12, spending five years plus in Qatar during their teens and living and studying alongside Qatari students, many of the players may well be tempted to switch. Indeed, one foreign ASPIRE graduate, Daniel Goma from Guinea, has already been called into training camps with the Qatari national side and even played for the Qatari Olympic side in the 2010 Asian Games.

If it were a purely humanitarian enterprise, the ASPIRE academy would be well-respected around the globe. However, despite all the good that they do for the select group of students that are selected each year, it is difficult to see past it as a tool for winning the vote for the 2022 World Cup, and as a part of a possible plot to import young foreign athletes to populate the team for that tournament.

Of course, it will produce some talented local players - 50% of each class is made up of Qatari students. However, its star graduates will almost certainly be the foreign students and it will be interesting to note how many of them go on to represent Qatar, rather than their home country.

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Drugs and Violence: The Rise and Fall of Colombian Football

During the 1990s, a golden generation propelled Colombia unexpectedly up the FIFA World Rankings as far as 4^th. Fuelled by an influx of money into the domestic game, Colombia found themselves with several top-class players and went into the 1994 World Cup as one of the tournament favourites. However, less than three weeks after the opening of the tournament, twelve gunshots marked the virtual death knoll of Colombian football.

The rise and fall of Colombian football can be seen through the lives of two Colombians, who shared a common surname, although not related: Andrés and Pablo Escobar. Andrés Escobar was a talented defender, who rose through the ranks of Colombian football to captain his country at the World Cup, but it was his own goal against the hosts that led to not only Colombia’s elimination from the tournament, but also his untimely death.

Pablo Escobar was arguably one of the most powerful people in Colombia as head of the Medellín drug cartel. The most feared drug lord in Colombia at the time, and the seventh richest man in the world according to Forbes magazine, played a crucial role in the rise of Colombian football during the 1980s and early 1990s.

During the 1980s, drug trafficking was becoming a huge industry in Colombia and the cartels had accumulated huge sums of money from their illicit activities. Football became an important method for these cartels to legalise their money due to the millions of pounds that can be moved through football. Falsely declaring ticket sales and transfer fees gave them the opportunity to overemphasis the movement of money, allowing them to legalise millions of drug money.

Pablo Escobar was the power behind the ownership of Atletico Nacional, one of Colombia’s major clubs at the time. Through his influence, he enabled the club to rise to become a major force in both domestic and continental competition. They had an exceptionally strong team, combined with the money to keep their best players and prevent them from moving away from Colombia.

However, Pablo Escobar was not the only drug trafficker that became deeply involved in Colombian football. He had links to both Atletico Nacional and Medellín, but Los Millonarios had close links with ‘El Mexicano’ José Gonzalo Rodríguez and America de Cali had close links with Miguel Rodriguez.

Corruption within Colombian football at the time was not uncommon. Indeed, Miguel Rodriguez’s son has admitted that they used to send one particularly referee money early in the week in exchange for a guarantee that America de Cali would win the following weekend.

After a key match between Rodriguez’s America and Escobar’s Nacional, it appeared that the referee, Alvaro Ortega, had fixed the match in America’s favour. After the match, Pablo reputedly ordered the referee to be found and executed. Only a few days later, the tournament was suspended due to the assassination of Alvaro Ortega.

Despite his role in drug trafficking, Pablo Escobar was revered by the poor in Colombia. He donated large amounts of money to the poorest sectors of society to build houses and he was also responsible for huge investment into providing lights and supplies for football fields throughout the region. 

He had a close relationship with many of the golden generation of Colombian football through these as many of them grew up playing on these pitches. Indeed, he would pay top Colombian players to come to his ranch and play in private games where millions of dollars would be bet and the players would be well-paid for their appearance.

However, in the years ahead of the 1994 World Cup, the violence in Colombia was escalating to extreme levels. The murder rate in Colombia was the highest in any country on the planet. Politicians and judges lived in fear for their lives. Indeed, in the 1990 Presidential elections, all four candidates were killed by the drug cartels and the replacement candidate, Cesar Gaviria, survived an attempted assassination attempt when his plane was bombed, although he was not on board.

It was against this background that the Colombian national side stood in contrast. Football was helping to play a vital role in restoring Colombia’s self-worth on the national stage. With each success, people began to associate Colombia with football, not only the drugs and violence that was dominating society at the time.

President Cesar Gaviria and his cabinet developed close links with the team, attending the majority of matches and remaining in close contact with the players both before and after the matches. However, many of the players had also retained close links with Pablo Escobar, who had surrendered following a successful attempt to abolish the extradition treaty with the United States.

A huge national scandal was caused when star goalkeeper, Rene Higuita, admitted that he often visited Pablo Escobar in prison, although it was later revealed that the whole national team had played a private match at the prison for Escobar. Soon after, Higuita was arrested for mediating a kidnap negotiation between two rival cartels and spent seven months in prison before being released without charge. However, many people felt that it was his visits to Escobar in prison that was the motive for his arrest.

Meanwhile, Andrés Escobar was rapidly proving himself to be one of the most talented defenders in South America. He had been named captain of both club and country and rumours were abound that major European teams were keeping a close eye on him.

In the four years ahead of the 1994 World Cup, Colombia had lost only one game, including victories over Brazil, Northern Ireland, Greece, USA and the Argentineans twice, including a stunning 5-0 victory in Buenos Aires that secured their qualification at the expense of the two-time world champions.

With the likes of Andrés Escobar, Faustino Asprilla, Carlos Valderrama, Chonto Herrera, Adolfo Valencia and Freddy Rincón, they had a truly world class team that would be a real threat to any side at the tournament. Indeed, Pele himself had tipped them as his pick for the eventual champions.

However, in December 1993, Pablo Escobar was killed by an alliance of rival cartels, causing the country to spiral further out of control. Kidnappings, murders and bombings became more and more common. Indeed, Andrés Escobar admitted that he had avoided being killed in a bombing in the centre of Medellín by a matter of minutes.

Despite all this, the team flew to the United States with high expectations. Andrés Escobar was considering a move to AC Milan after the tournament, but had emphasised that the team had to focus on the matches, and put the horrors that were happening back home behind them.

A shock 3-1 defeat in their opening games increased the pressure on the side. A Colombian journalist explained that ‘it marked the beginning of a psychological crisis for which the team wasn’t prepared. Many gamblers had lost big money and there appeared a sort of ‘dark hand’ that was very upset with the team’s performance.’

Many of the cartels had seen the opportunity to make money out of Colombia’s group stage matches through backing their side. However, the defeat against Romania had cost many powerful people significant amounts of money.

Ahead of the pre-match meeting for the game against the USA, the team received death threats. Somebody had hacked into the hotel’s television system and had displayed death threats on the televisions in the players’ hotel rooms. The message claimed that if Gabriel Gómez played in the match against the USA, all the players would be killed.

Despite the fact that Gómez was a key member of the team, coach Francisco Maturana eventually decided to pull him from the team for the safety of the other players. Gomez revealed, ‘after I was pulled from the team, I decided to retire from football. I knew it was about regional rivalries back home. Club team owners wanted their players to be seen so that their values would increase. Since Maturana wasn’t starting their players, they sabotaged their own national team.’

Faustino Asprilla admitted that ‘we all called our families. The police had arrived to all our homes. Our minds filled with worries that one shouldn’t have before a game.’

It was against this backdrop that Colombia took to the field against the United States in a must-win match.

In the 35^th minute, a cross from American, John Harkes, came across the Colombian area. Stretching to intercept the ball, Andrés Escobar inadvertently deflected the ball past Oscar Cordoba into his own net.

An interview with Escobar’s sister provided a chilling premonition of the future. She claims that her daughter, Escobar’s niece, said, ‘Mommy, they’re going to kill Andrés.’ She replied, ‘No sweetheart, people aren’t killed for their mistakes. Everyone in Colombia loves Andrés.’

Colombia lost the match 2-1 and the highly-fancied side were on their way home. They returned to Colombia after their final group match on June 26^th. It was the beginning of the end for Colombian football.

At 3am on 3^rd July, reports of a shooting outside a Medellín nightclub emerged.

The victim was Andrés Escobar. He had been shot twelve times at close range. Witnesses reportedly claimed that the killer shouted "¡Gracias por el auto gol en la propia puerta!" for each of the twelve bullets fired. The killing was widely believed to be a punishment for the own goal and is rumoured to have been connected to one of the gambling syndicates, although recent testimonies have suggesting this may not be the case.

In an interesting statement, his teammate, Chicho Serna, went as far as to claim that ‘people on the street said that if Pablo Escobar was still alive, Andrés Escobar would not have been killed.’ How much truth there is behind these beliefs is unclear, but it shows the feelings toward the former drug lord on the streets of Colombia.

While the rise of both Pablo and Andrés Escobar arguably played a key role in the rise of Colombian football, their deaths marked the end of the glory years and the beginning of the downfall.

‘Through football, we wanted to show that Colombia was not all violence. But Andrés’ murder proved that not even football could escape the violence. Fans were deeply disillusioned and started to leave the stadiums.’

Escobar’s murder also prompted a ruthless crackdown on criminals in football by the Colombian government. The Rodriguez brothers were sentenced to 30 years in an American prison, while their America de Cali team was added to the US Terrorist List. The former head of the Colombian FA, Juan Jose Bellini, was sentenced to six years for money laundering. He admitted:

‘One must attribute the rapid rise of Colombian football to the influx of drug money in the sport. We all allowed it. We all participated. And now, we all have something to hide.’

Less than four years later, Colombia had plummeted from 4^th in the world to 34^th. They scraped into the 1998 World Cup, but headed home after the group stages once again after defeats to Romania and England. They have not qualified for a World Cup since and dropped out of the top 50 earlier this year. The money that had driven the rise of Colombian football had dried up. Last year, a report suggested that 14 of Colombia’s 18 top teams were at serious risk of bankruptcy.

Andrés Escobar remains a hero in Colombia and the nation’s most popular footballer. A hugely promising career tragically cut short by the violence that permeated every level of society in the country at the time. Over 120,000 people attended his funeral and fans still bring photographs of him to games to honour his memory.

It only seems fitting to end on the final public words of Andrés Escobar in a newspaper article only days before his murder:

“Life must go on. No matter how difficult, we must stand back up. We have only two options: either allow anger to paralyse us and the violence continues, or we overcome and try our best to help others. It’s our choice. Let us please maintain respect. My warmest regards to everyone. It’s been a most amazing and rare experience. We’ll see each other again soon because life does not end here.”


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