Mark Cavendish and the Tour de France

It is one of the most gruelling sporting events on the planet. Over three weeks ago, 198 cyclists departed from Passage du Gois. On Sunday afternoon, the remaining 167 cyclists crossed the finish line on the Champs Elysee to mark the end of over 3,400km of racing.

As he has done for the past two years, Mark Cavendish was able to stay ahead of his rivals in the sprint finish and claim his third successive Champs Elysee victory and continue to cement his name as one of the greatest sprinters that the sport has ever seen. However, he still seems to struggle to gain the recognition in the UK that he deserves.


This is due to two reasons. Firstly, the lack of attention that the Tour de France, and particularly road cycling in general, receives in the UK media. Mark Cavendish’s fifth stage win of this year’s Tour de France received a small story on the BBC Sport website, yet no coverage whatsoever on the BBC news programme. It was a small story tucked away in the depths of the sports pages in most national newspapers.

On the continent, Mark Cavendish is like the David Beckham of cycling. In countries like France, Belgium and Spain where cycling is a serious sport, he is one of the most famous sporting names. However, back in the UK, it would be fair to assume that only a small proportion of people have heard of Mark Cavendish, and even if they have, would not realise what a major star the man is.

The second reason is linked into the first reason. There is a general lack of understanding of how exactly the Tour de France works. There is the common misconception that Mark Cavendish won five out of the 21 stages, so he should be winning the Tour de France.

However, the Tour does not work exactly like this. There are four different jerseys that are up for grabs in the race. The yellow jersey (Maillot Jeune) is awarded to the rider with the best overall time. Generally, there are only a small handful of riders who could even challenge for this jersey. To win it, you must be one of the few riders that truly excels in the high mountains, as well as being able to stick with the pack on the flat stages and being able to time-trial with the best of them.

If you lack in one of these attributes, it will be difficult to win the yellow jersey. Andy Schleck is arguably of the best cyclists of his generation in the mountains, but his lack of time-trialling ability meant that even though he carried a lead of almost a minute into the final time-trial, he ended up finishing the overall race in second place by over 1’30. This very small flaw in his riding ability will always make it tough for him to win the yellow jersey.


The second jersey is the green jersey, designed to determine the best sprinter. This is the jersey that Mark Cavendish won. Points are awarded for finishing position in each individual stage, as well as intermediate sprints at various points through the stage. The overall time that each cyclist finishes in the final classification is irrelevant when it comes to the green jersey.

Mark Cavendish won five stages and consistently finished in high positions on the intermediate sprints. Through this, he accumulated 334 points. His closest rival, Jose Joaquin Rojas, accumulated a total of 272 points over the 21 stages.

The fact that Mark Cavendish finished the overall race in 130th place, over three hours and fifteen minutes behind Cadel Evans, and almost 55 minutes behind Jose Joaquin Rojas, does not matter as far as he is concerned.

The third jersey is the polka dot jersey, which is awarded for the best climber in the race. At the top of each climb, there are a certain number of mountain points available. The bigger the climb, the more points are available. The natural climbers will often target this jersey. Even if they will struggle in other types of stages, they are able to race up the mountains faster than their rivals. Often the biggest names will appear high in this classification, purely due to the fact that they are some of the best climbers.

This year, the polka dot jersey was won by Samuel Sanchez, who also finished sixth in the overall classification. Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans and Alberto Contador also featured in the top five, with Jelle Vanendert being the only non-GC contender to appear. Vanendert finished in 20th place overall, but was able to win one mountain stage and regularly appeared toward the front of the race over many of the mountains.

The final jersey is the white jersey, awarded to the best young rider in the race. Any rider under 25-years old is eligible to compete for this jersey. It is awarded in an identical manner to the yellow jersey, but is focussed on the younger riders in the race. This year, it was won by Pierre Rolland, who finished 11th in the overall classification.


Going into the race, no rider will be targeting all of the jersey. In this modern day, it is virtually impossible for any rider to be the best climber and the best sprinter. So when people question why Mark Cavendish is winning so many stages, but seems to be at the back over the mountains and finishing low down in the overall classification, it is because he is a specialised sprinter, not a climber.

Compare it for example to athletics. Mark Cavendish is like an 800m runner. It requires some endurance, but the major part is a sprint finish at the end. Over the final 200m of a race, Mark Cavendish is the fastest man on the planet. However, he has also often ridden over 200km to get there.

The likes of Cadel Evans, Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck are more like marathon runners. They will almost never beat Cavendish and the other sprinters in a short sprint, but over a 21 stage race, they will almost always finish above the sprinters.

On a slightly unrelated point, but to continue the analogy, track sprinters, such as Chris Hoy, would be 100m sprinters. Their events are purely based on sheer speed over a short distance.

In a track event, Chris Hoy will almost always beat Mark Cavendish. However, ask Chris Hoy to ride for 200km over hills before a sprint finish, Mark Cavendish will win almost every single time.

It is why Mark Cavendish will never win the yellow jersey for the best overall time in the Tour de France. However, criticising him for this misses the point. He is not racing to win the yellow jersey. He is racing for the green jersey. The Tour de France is like several races in one and each rider in the race has different objectives depending on his and his team’s individual strengths.

After the final stage, David Millar said that he feels that Mark Cavendish is the greatest sprinter in the history of cycling. It is undisputed that he is the greatest sprinter of his generation. He has now moved onto 20 Tour de France stage wins in only four tours. To put this into context, Thor Hushovd, one of his main rivals, has 10 stage wins in eleven tours. Erik Zabel, who is considered one of the greatest sprinters of all time has 12 stage wins in six tours.


Next year, he will likely overtake Lance Armstrong’s 22 stage wins and may even move into joint third on the all-time winners list with Andre Leducq on 25. Ahead of Leducq lies Bernard Hinault on 28 and then the legendary Eddy Merckx on 34. Given that Cavendish potentially has at least five or six tours left in him, it would be no surprise to see him eventually top this list.

At the end of the day, it is the lack of attention that the sport gets combined with the misunderstanding of how the sport works that means that Mark Cavendish does not get the credit amongst the general public that he deserves.

The Sports Personality of the Year award is often a decent indication of the recognition that athletes, particularly in the less mainstream sports, receive from the general public. Despite being a stand-out contender for this award, it would be a major shock if he were to win it. Elsewhere on the continent, he would be a big favourite to clinch the award. It shows the different attitudes toward the sport.

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Tour de France: Best Descenders

With the long downhill section on Stage 13, it is interesting to look at who some of the best descenders in cycling are. Just as sprinting and climbing are relatively specialised skills, being able to descend at speed requires great talent and skill to pick the right lines to minimise the speed that you lose around corners.

Clearly, the slightly bigger and heavier cyclists will have an advantage to a certain extent as their greater weight will allow them to naturally descend faster due to gravity. However, this is slightly balanced out by the fact that they are likely to have higher centres of gravity meaning that they find it harder to take some of the tighter corners with the same stability as the smaller riders.


One of the best descenders in the world is the Italian, Vincenzo Nibali. Out of major GC contenders in the big races, he is the most naturally talented descender, although his inconsistency in other areas will always cost him in the big races. However, he is not currently racing in the Tour de France and hasn’t since 2009.

Out of those riders currently in the race, there are three names that particularly stand out as top class descenders. Yesterday’s stage winner, Samuel Sanchez, is one in particular and he has repeatedly been able to either close gaps or move out ahead on his own on major descents.

The current road race world champion, Thor Hushovd, is another rider who is often cited as a quality rider on the descents. Indeed, he was named by other professionals as the best descender in a poll several years ago and he can often use this ability to close the gaps that can open up on the ascents. It is one of the reasons why he can often finish significant margins ahead of other sprinters on mountainous stages as he can claw back time once the climbing section has finished.


The third of the trio is the current Olympic gold medallist and time-trial specialist, Fabian Cancellara. He is a big, powerful rider which gives him an advantage on the descents and his technical ability means that there are very few who can remain with him, especially on the more technical descents.

Outside of the big three, there are several other riders who stand out on the descents. Movistar’s David Arroyo often looks confident and quick on the descents, as does Leopard-Trek’s Linus Gerdemann. Finally, Radioshack’s Yaroslav Popovych is also known as a good descender.

Tour de France 2011: Stage 13 Betting

The first real mountain stage of the 2011 Tour de France gave us a much better idea of where all the major GC contenders are at. While Samuel Sanchez won the stage in his and his team’s home region, it was the situation behind him on the hill that was the most interesting.

Throughout the earlier climbs on the stage, the Leopard-Trek team set a high pace and dropped the majority of the peloton, including the white jersey rider, Robert Gesink, who has been very disappointing so far this tour. Toward the end, it was just a high quality group of six, including both Schlecks, Contador, Basso, Cunego and Cadel Evans.

Frank Schleck was the first to really attack and it was interesting that nobody went with him up the hill. He was able to put a significant gap between himself and the group, almost catching Sanchez to win the stage. However, the even more interesting thing was that Contador was dropped from this group on the final stretch of the hill, meaning that he lost another 15 seconds to his rivals.

It looks as though Contador is really struggling, whether it be from fatigue having ridden in the Giro or his knee injury, but he has drifted out to 5/1 (Betfred) to win the Tour now. It was also interesting to note that out of the two Schleck brothers, it is Frank that is looking in the better form and the fresher. Indeed, his odds of winning the race have now come into 6/1 (Sporting Bet), whilst his brother’s odds are drifting very slightly out to 7/5 (Bet365).

Moving onto Stage 13, it is likely that a breakaway will make it right to the very end. The leading contenders are likely to take it easy today after a difficult day yesterday and in preparation for tomorrow. With a long downhill section to the finish, there may be a large group of breakaway riders coming together come the finish.

As we have seen multiple times in the last couple of stages, Team Sky are concentrating on breakaways and looking for a stage win. Geraint Thomas rode superbly yesterday and we have seen Flecha in the ill-fated breakaway when he was hit by the media car. It would be no surprise if they were to send another rider out today and I suspect it could be the turn of Edvald Boasson Hagen. He is a decent climber and if it comes to a sprint finish amongst the breakaway, he would surely be the big favourite.

Sandy Casar already has a top three finish this year, but he is a serial member of breakaways and has won stages very similar to this in previous editions of the race. He will be looking to go better than his third place earlier in the race.

Two others riders to watch are the Portuguese duo of Rui Costa and Carlos Barredo. Rui Costa already has one stage win to his name after winning a breakaway earlier in the race and has admitted that he is keen to add to that tally. He took it easy on the stage yesterday and will be fancying his chances of getting in the break today. Barredo’s Rabobank team have had a pretty poor tour with Gesink’s failings. It would be no surprise to see them looking for a stage win and although Luis Leon Sanchez is probably the favourite to go in the break, there is a chance that it may be Barredo, who was in a breakaway on a similar stage to this last year.

Tejay van Garderen has been very active in trying to get in breaks so far and I expect him to try again today. I thought he might go yesterday, but he clearly struggled up the mountains and was unable to challenge. Similarly, David Moncoutie may go for a win today. His Confidis team have been extremely disappointing so far and will be desperate for something to please their sponsors.

Three other men who could challenge would be Grega Bole, Jose Joaquin Rojas and yesterday’s winner, Samuel Sanchez. Bole would be well-suited to this type of finish and Lampre may send him out to gain some recognition for their team, which has been pretty low-profile thus far. Rojas is still keen on the green jersey and can climb pretty well. He is well down on the GC and if he is in the leading group come the finish, he has as good a chance as any to win the stage.

Finally, Samuel Sanchez won yesterday’s stage, but if a breakaway group does not get too much of a lead after the mountain, he is undoubtedly one of the best descenders in the peloton. If he can keep the gap relatively low, he is perfectly capable of catching and passing the breakaway on the long descent to the finish.

Bets

Edvald Boasson Hagen to win Stage 13 @ 10/1 (Stan James)
Sandy Casar to win Stage 13 E/W @ 39/1 (Unibet)
Carlos Barredo to win Stage 13 E/W @ 40/1 (Sporting Bet)
Jose Joaquin Rojas to win Stage 13 @ 40/1 (Paddy Power)
Tejay van Garderen to win Stage 13 @ 66/1 E/W (Stan James)
Grega Bole to win Stage 13 @ 80/1 (Bet365)

Tour de France: Stage 12 Betting

After Mark Cavendish clinched his third stage win of this year’s Tour de France and moved into the green jersey, it is now the turn of the mountain specialists and general classification contenders as we move into the Pyrenees for Stage 12.

The stage leaves Cugnaux and the first major climb of the 2011 Tour de France sees the peloton climbing the category one climb of La Hourquette d’Ancizan. They descend the other side before climbing the legendary Col de Tourmalet before descending the other side and finishing with the climb to Luz-Ardiden, where Lance Armstrong famously left all his rivals in his wake in 2003 to virtually clinch the title that year.


It is difficult to know whether this stage will be won by a breakaway or whether the big names in the general classification will look to make their moves. Alberto Contador begins as the favourite and it will be interesting to see his tactics in this stage. There is a strong suspicion that if he is able to, he may look to attack up either the Tourmalet or the final climb up to Luz-Ardiden and try and inflict a psychological blow on his rivals by leaving them on the first major climb. However, it will also give us an idea of how his knee is holding up, given his recent comments on the pain it has been causing him.

Similarly, we might expect to see the Schleck brothers attack Contador on these climbs as well if Contador does not. They will want to test him and see how his knee holds, so if he does not attack himself, expect to see Andy and Frank attacking up the climb to Luz-Ardiden. If the two Schlecks are able to ride away up the hill, expect to see Andy allow Frank to take the stage win.

Given that it is Bastille Day today, we would also expect to see several French riders looking to get away and try to stay away in a breakaway. Thomas Voeckler would love to get in the breakaway and win the Bastille Day stage, but given that he is the current holder of the yellow jersey, it would be unlikely that the other teams would let him get away.


Now that Vinokourov is out of the Tour, Astana are looking for stage wins rather than concentrating on anyone as the team leader. As a result, we would expect them to try and get somebody in the breakaway today. It would likely be either Remi di Gregorio or Paolo Tiralongo, although Roman Kreuziger might be allowed to go given that he is so far back in the general classification.

As a French team, Europcar will be looking for a stage win today and are unlikely to be able to control any breakaway for Voeckler, so might send someone out in it themselves. It is likely to be either Anthony Charteau or Pierre Rolland.

Similarly, Katusha have no real contender for the GC and so stage wins are likely to be their priority. After the failed drugs test by Alexander Kolobnev, they have lost their best climber, but Yuri Trofimov is the best they have left, so he might be sent to try and get in the breakaway.


Other French riders who might fancy their chance today include Christophe Riblon, Jerome Coppel and John Gadret. However, one non-Frenchman to keep an eye on might be Tejay van Garderen. He has already been in one breakaway and has attempted to get in several others. He seems to be a decent climber and looks to have his eye set on the King of the Mountains jersey, so it would be no surprise to see him trying to get away again.

Bets

Frank Schleck to win Stage 12 @ 14/1 (Sporting Bet)
Remi di Gregorio to win Stage 12 @ 79/1 (Unibet)
Jerome Coppel to win Stage 12 @ 100/1 (Sporting Bet)
Pierre Rolland to win Stage 12 @ 100/1 (Betfred)
Tejay van Garderen to win Stage 12 @ 140 (Betfair)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 9 Betting

As predicted, the breakaway just about hung on to win Stage 8. Rui Costa, Tejay van Garderen, Christophe Riblon and Cyril Gautier all spent plenty of time out the front, but in the end, it was only the Portuguese rider from Movistar, Rui Costa, who was able to stay away and claim his first ever stage win on the Tour de France.


Behind him, there was an excellent fight going on with riders attacking and counter-attacking, yet still struggling and fighting hard up the hill. In the end, Philippe Gilbert went away to grab second place with Cadel Evans getting another podium finish. Robert Gesink was the only one of the leading contenders to lose time on the stage after struggling on the final climb.

Stage 9 is a similar stage and again there is a decent chance that the breakaway could succeed. The riders leave from Issoire and climb three category two climbs – the Col du Pas de Peyrol, the Col de Perthus and the Col de Prat de Bouc. There are also three category three climbs and two category four climbs.

The bookmakers make Philippe Gilbert the favourite to win the stage (best price of 6/1 with Paddy Power). If he is up there come the finish, he is likely to have the best sprint finish, but whether he will be able to hang on through all the hills remains to be seen. Either way, at these odds, there is no value in backing the Belgian.

Behind him come the likes of Edvald Boasson Hagen, Thor Hushovd and Jose Joaquin Rojas – the sprinters that can climb. Clearly, if there are any of these names in the leading group come the finish, they will have the advantage when going for the stage win. However, it will require a great deal of effort and hard work by their teams if they are to be in this position.


If the breakaway is caught before the end of the race, it opens up the possibility of a second attack. In this case, the common puncheurs, such as Alexandre Vinokourov, who we saw going for the stage win today, and Thomas Voeckler up there with the favourites.

However, as I mentioned, again I feel that a breakaway could win this stage, so it becomes a matter of trying to predict who might be in the breakaway. As we saw today, there will doubtless be at least one Frenchman, so the likes of Jerome Pineau, David Moncoutie and Sandy Casar come into the reckoning again. Similarly, Thomas Voeckler might try to go away in the key break as well.


Outside the Frenchmen, we have the likes of Egoi Martinez, Sylvain Chavanel, David Arroyo and Sergio Paulinho that might fancy their chances. Also, Team Sky have come out and said that they will now be targeting stage wins, so there might be a chance that someone like Flecha or Uran might go out in the breakaway now Wiggins is out of the Tour.

Bets

Thomas Voeckler to win Stage 9 @ 16/1 (Victor Chandler)
David Moncoutie to win Stage 9 @ 40/1 (Paddy Power)
Rigoberto Uran to win Stage 9 @ 50/1 (Bet365)
Sandy Casar to win Stage 9 @ 66/1 (Sporting Bet)
David Arroyo to win Stage 9 @ 100/1 (Paddy Power)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 8 Betting

Unfortunately, due to unforeseen circumstances involving bush fires and an evacuation in the early hours of Thursday morning, we were unable to produce a preview for Stage 7. However, we are back with Stage 8.

After the euphoria for Team Sky after Edvald Boasson Hagen won the team’s first ever stage on the Tour de France, Stage 7 saw the complete opposite emotions as Bradley Wiggins was involved in a large crash around 40km from the end of the stage. After several minutes of treatment, he was unable to continue with what was later confirmed as a broken collarbone.


In the end, Mark Cavendish won his second stage in the space of three days, holding off the challenge from the previously invisible Alessandro Petacchi and the German, Andre Greipel. However, a whole host of riders who might have fancied their chances at a push for the top ten were held up in the incident, including the likes of Geraint Thomas, Rigoberto Uran and Roman Kreuziger.

Stage 8 is the first hilly stage of the Tour de France and will see the leading GC contenders moving up the rankings with the sprinters sliding back down into the lower positions. The stage sees the peloton heading through the Massif Central, departing from Aigurande and finishing at Super-Besse, a stage finish on three previous occasions. It was the finish of a stage back in 2008, when Riccardo Ricco won, although he was to fail a drugs test only days later.

However, Cadel Evans finished third in the stage and will begin as one of the favourites once again (best price of 11/2 with Bwin). He will be the favourite to be wearing the yellow jersey come the end of the stage, since he currently stands only 1 second behind Hushovd, who has himself admitted that it is almost certainly his last day in the jersey.


All the big favourites are well up there in the betting with Alberto Contador a best price of 6/1 with William Hill, Andy Schleck a best price of 40/1 with Sporting Bet, Frank Schleck at 28/1 with Sporting Bet and Jurgen van den Broeck at 33/1 with Boyle Sports.

However, it needs to be questioned whether any of the big names will want to be wearing the yellow jersey at this stage of the race. Wearing the leader’s jersey brings with it a need to work hard and defend the jersey, putting more pressure on the team in these earlier stages.

Garmin Cervelo will not attempt to chase down any breakaway as Thor Hushovd has no real prospect of remaining in yellow. Philippe Gilbert may be high up in the ranking at this stage, but he is unlikely to really be challenging come the end of the race, so it seems quite unlikely that Omega Pharma Lotto will make much of an effort.

Similarly, none of Leopard Trek, Saxo Bank or BMC are likely to want their man in yellow at the end of the stage really. Therefore, there is a decent argument that this might be the first stage this year where a breakaway is allowed to stay away and claim the stage win.


If this is the case, there are several names who might fancy their chances. Johnny Hoogerland (best price of 66/1 with Stan James) currently owns the polka dot jersey for the best climber and will want to hang onto this jersey. With two category 4 climbs, a category 3 and a category 2 climb at the Croix Saint-Robert, there will be plenty of points on offer.

Frenchmen are always keen to get in a breakaway, especially one that has a chance of winning. Combined with the opportunity for some serious mountain points, it would be no surprise to see some of the perennial KOTM contenders up there. Some of the names that may be making an attempt might include David Moncoutie, Jerome Pineau, John Gadret and Sandy Casar. None of them are likely to be a serious threat to any of the GC contenders, so they may allow one of them to take the yellow jersey.


One or two other outsider names that might be in a breakaway could include Euskatel’s Egoi Martinez, the Dane, Chris Anke Sorensen or the Portuguese rider, Sergio Paulinho.

Whilst there is a decent chance that one of the leading contenders may want to go for the win, there is a big enough chance that a breakaway might succeed that it makes it worthwhile looking for a big odds winner on this stage.

Bets

Johnny Hoogerland to win Stage 8 E/W @ 66/1 (Stan James)
David Moncoutie to win Stage 8 E/W @ 66/1 (Sporting Bet)
John Gadret to win Stage 8 E/W @ 100/1 (Sporting Bet)
Sandy Casar to win Stage 8 E/W @ 125/1 (Stan James)
Egoi Martinez to win Stage 8 E/W @ 240/1 (Sports Bet)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 6 Preview and Betting

What on paper looked a relatively straight-forward and uneventful Stage 5 turned out to be anything but. While Mark Cavendish overcame the lack of teammates to win a scrappy sprint finish ahead of Philippe Gilbert and Jose Joaquin Rojas, the major talking points came further back in the peloton.

A whole swathe of leading general classification riders were involved in crashes of varying degrees of severity. First to go down was Team Sky’s leader, Bradley Wiggins. He was caught up in a minor crash as the pace of the peloton suddenly dropped and several riders toppled over. However, he got away with it and was able to rejoin the peloton with relative ease.


Next to go were Janez Brajkovic and Robert Gesink in a nasty incident. It was one that was to end Brajkovic’s race – a real shame for a strong contender for a top ten finish. He went down and several other riders including Gesink rolled over him. He was unconscious for several minutes and was taken to hospital with a concussion and a fractured collarbone. Robert Gesink looked badly shaken by the incident, but was able to rejoin the peloton, albeit after a tremendous effort by him and his teammates.

Alberto Contador was the next to go over. It was unclear what caused the crash, but he was clearly not a happy man as he threw his bike off the road and into the ditch. Elsewhere in the peloton, Sylvain Chavanel suffered a partial dislocation of his right shoulder, Tom Boonen suffered what looked a fairly serious collarbone injury and is unlikely to play any further part in the race.

The most worrying incident involved Nicki Sorensen. He found his bike caught up in a motorbike and was dragged along the road for a short distance before disentangling himself from his bike and falling down the verge on the side of the road. Thankfully, he appeared ok, but questions must be asked about the motorbike driver.


In the end, two riders withdrew from the race through injury and another eight riders had to receive medical attention. Understandably, the riders were not happy with the course. Radioshack’s experienced campaigner, Levi Leipheimer, said, “These roads don’t belong in the tour, especially in the first week.” Bradley Wiggins merely said, ““It was mad – the worst stage so far and I’m glad it’s over. It was a really, really horrible stage,” whilst three-time winner, Alberto Contador summed up the mood of the peloton saying, “It was very, very difficult out there, very nervous.”

After all the incidents of today’s stage, Stage 6 sees the riders undertake the longest stage of the race at 226.5km. Similar to Stage 4, there is a decent climb 1.5km from the end of the race, which means that we are likely to see some familiar faces back at the business end of the peloton. It is likely to see somebody going from the start of the final hill and looking to outlast his rivals.

For the third time in the six stages, Philippe Gilbert begins as the favourite. He is also rapidly putting himself in contention for the green jersey with consistent finishes in all types of situation. He will undoubtedly be there or thereabouts tomorrow and Boyle Sports offer the best price at 7/2.

Whether the traditional sprinters will be involved is a major question. Whether the finish is uphill enough that it will rule out the likes of Mark Cavendish and Tyler Farrar remains to be seen and the question marks can be seen in the variety of odds offered on them. Cavendish is anywhere from 5/1 out to 9/1, while Tyler Farrar ranges from 14/1 up to 28/1. Personally, I think that it will just be too much for them and it will suit a puncheur more than a sprinter.


One of the most powerful sprinters might be in with a shot though. The yellow jersey wearer, Thor Hushovd, climbed excellently on Stage 4 to remain with the leaders and may fancy his chances once again. Amongst the other sprinters, Jose Joaquin Rojas is a strong contender, as are Edvald Boasson Hagen and Romain Feillu.

On the other hand, a puncheur may fancy pushing for the win. This brings the likes of Alexandre Vinokourov, Thomas Voeckler and Jerome Pineau into play. Vinokourov is desperate for a stage win and has been up the front in virtually every stage so far. Thomas Voeckler attempted to go for the win from way out today, but was eventually brought back by the peloton.

There are one or two outsiders to keep an eye on. Vacansoleil rider, Borut Bozic, is one such rider. He will be primarily looking to help Feillu on the sprint, but if he struggles up the slope, he may look to go himself. Looking at the other riders who performed well on Tuesday, Rigoberto Uran is a good climber and Cadel Evans is likely to be in the mix.

It is difficult to pick a winner for this stage, but fingers crossed, it should be less dangerous than today. There is unlikely to be too much time won or lost here, but there may be the odd second here and there.

Bets

Jose Joaquin Rojas to win Stage 6 @ 15/2 (Paddy Power)
Alexandre Vinokourov to win Stage 6 @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Rigoberto Uran to beat Geraint Thomas @ 3.52 (Pinnacle)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 5 Betting

Stage 4 progressed as expected with some of the big General Classification riders mixing it up at the business end of the race. In the end, Cadel Evans was just able to hold of the sprint of Alberto Contador in a photo finish, with Alexandre Vinokourov third, Rigoberto Uran fourth ahead of the pre-race favourite, Philippe Gilbert, who was unable to add a second stage win on his 29th birthday.


Thor Hushovd performed admirably by staying with the leading pack on the climb up to the finish to retain the yellow jersey, while Jose Joaquin Rojas picked up a few points on the intermediate sprint to retain his green jersey.

Andy Schleck finished in the third group back, losing eight seconds to Contador and Evans, but in reality, this climb was never going to suit the younger Schleck and he will be happy to retain a 1’30 lead over the Spaniard. Another interesting observation from this stage is that Frank Schleck did not remain back to help his brother, but tailed Contador up the hill. Whether the team are eyeing both the Schlecks for the overall classification remains to be seen.


Moving onto Stage 5, the peloton depart from Carhaix, the home of France’s largest music festival, winding their way up and down the hills of the Brittany countryside down to the coast at Plouha. From there, they head along the coast, past St-Brieuc, finishing with a sprint finish at Cap Frehel.

On the face of it, it would appear to be a classic stage for the sprinters. However, with reports of expected crosswinds of up to 40km/h tomorrow, it is vital for the teams to protect their sprinters, and most importantly of all, ensure that they remain in the leading group of the peloton.

Races such as this can easily find the peloton split into several large sections, often separated by reasonable time differences. If one of the sprinters finds themselves in the wrong group if the peloton is forced to split, they can kiss goodbye to their chances of a stage win.

A similar argument must pertain to the leading contenders in the general classification as well. They will want to avoid any threat of losing time to their rivals, so it would be no surprise to see the leading names right at the front of the peloton throughout most of the stage tomorrow.


Onto the betting side of things, Mark Cavendish once again starts as a big favourite for the stage (best price 1/1 with Sky Bet). After getting blocked off around the corner in Stage 3, he will be desperate for a first win of this year’s race. He looked relatively disinterested in today’s intermediate sprint, although he still came through to finish fourth out of the peloton and pick up seven points. However, he looked in excellent form on Monday to race back and grab fifth place and he would appear to be a good bet for tomorrow.

Tyler Farrar won the first sprint finish of the Tour on Monday, but from the position that he found himself in thanks to the brilliant tactical awareness of Thor Hushovd, it was harder to lose than it was to win. However, he did show signs that he might be coming back to some form by winning the intermediate sprint in Stage 4 and will be one to watch in this stage once again.

Outside of these two, it is the same names from Stage 3 to keep an eye on. Alessandro Petacchi has really failed to show anything during the race so far – unsurprising given his lack of action recently. Jose Joaquin Rojas has been solid and consistent so far, which sees him in possession of the green jersey – he has consistently been there or thereabouts in intermediate and finishing sprints. Andre Greipel and Thor Hushovd should be around the front, although Hushovd is again likely to work for Farrar rather than look to win it himself.


Romain Feillu attacked well on Stage 3 and came mere inches away from pipping Farrar on the line and will be led out again by the talented Borut Bozic and may fancy his chances of going one step higher on the podium.

Again though, the Russian, Denis Galimzyanov is one to watch. He won the intermediate sprint on Stage 2, but struggled a little in the narrow sprint finish on Stage 3 finishing in 11th place. However, he may lack the team around him to be a serious contender unless he can latch onto one of the trains of the other sprinters.

Mark Cavendish will be the one to beat in this stage, providing he finds himself in contention come the final sprint. I still remain to be convinced on the form of Farrar, so as an outsider, it is tempting to pick Denis Galimzyanov once again. He has the potential to be one of the top sprinters and he needs a good showing in the near future.

Bets

Mark Cavendish to win Stage 5 @ Evens (Sky Bet)
Denis Galimzyanov to win Stage 5 E/W @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Jose Joaquin Rojas to beat Romain Feillu @ 1.787 (Pinnacle)
Jose Joaquin Rojas to beat Alessandro Petacchi @ 10/11 (Stan James)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 4 Betting

Stage 3 saw Tyler Farrar win his first ever stage of the Tour de France. The usually ultra-efficient HTC-Highroad train came unstuck around the final corner with 300m remaining, somehow managing to lose Mark Cavendish off the back, leaving six riders clear in the final stretch. The three Garmin Cervelo riders – Thor Hushovd, Julian Dean and Tyler Farrar – stayed together beautifully around the final bend, lead by the hugely experienced Norwegian, and from that position, there was no stopping Farrar.


Behind him, Vacansoleil rider, Romain Feillu made a desperate last gasp attempt to try and pip him on the line, but after a photo finish, he was confirmed as the second placed rider, followed in by the new green jersey wearer, Jose Joaquin Rojas.

Despite being well behind into the final 300m, Mark Cavendish came absolutely flying through, and following his performance in the intermediate sprint, showed that he is in good form and will be a force to be reckoned with on future sprint finishes.

Stage 4 sees the peloton leave from Lorient and head inland along a series of twisting roads and small hills before finishing at the summit of the Mur-de-Bretagne. The finish comes at the end of a difficult 2km climb, which will rule out any of the sprinters winning this stage.

The huge favourite with the bookmakers is the Belgian, Philippe Gilbert, who will fancy his chances of picking up his second stage win of this year’s Tour. Put simply, virtually every race that he has set out to win this season, he has. He is in imperious form as of late and this finish will suit him perfectly. However, he is a best price of 4/6 (Stan James), which is a little short given that he was around 6/4 to win the opening stage.


Outside of the Belgian, expect some of the big names to try and make an impact for the first time. In particular, the reigning champion, Alberto Contador, may fancy his chances to boost the moral of the team and strike an early psychological blow by looking to attack the likes of Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans and Jurgen van den Broeck up the steep finish. While he is unlikely to make up much time, even a few seconds would send a message to his rivals that he can leave them behind when the incline increases.

Again, as in Stage 1, the same names might fancy themselves for an outside chance of victory. Alexandre Vinokourov (best price 27/1 with Unibet) and Thomas Voeckler (best price 44/1 with Unibet) both found themselves in good positions coming into the final section of the stage before fading back, and they may both fancy going for the breakaway win at the end in this stage as well.


Along with Contador, Samuel Sanchez was the only other big name to lose time in the first stage pile-up and he may be looking to try and prove that he can make up time in the hills as well. Although better known as a master descender, he is perfectly capable going uphill as well and may look to latch onto Contador if he makes a move.

Cadel Evans finished 2nd in the first stage, but is more likely to try and adopt a defensive strategy in this stage to prevent others from attacking. He is clearly past his peak and is likely to try and limit any losses and save his stamina for the real mountains.

It will be interesting to see whether any of the natural climbers decide to stretch their legs on the final short ascent. The likes of John Gadret, Rein Taaramae and Rigoberto Uran have been fairly quiet thus far, but might fancy the chance to make a move to test their form ahead of the mountains.


Philippe Gilbert is the huge favourite for this stage and given his form so far, he will be incredibly difficult to stop. Even if one of the big guns, most likely Alberto Contador, attacks up the slope, he should be able to stay with them and push clear on the slightly flatter final few hundred metres. However, as we saw today with Cavendish, there is always a chance that things can go wrong for the big favourites, so it is worth keeping an eye on a few of the other contenders.

Bets

Alberto Contador to win Stage 4 E/W @ 14/1 (Paddy Power)
Samuel Sanchez to beat Damiano Cunego @ 11/10 (Pinnacle)
Rein Taaramae to beat Robert Gesink @ 6/4 (Bet365)
Jurgen van den Broeck to beat Frank Schleck @ 8/11 (Stan James)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 3 Betting

As expected, Stage 2 saw Thor Hushovd and his Garmin Cervelo team win the team time trial and put the Norwegian into the yellow jersey. They covered the 69km course in a winning time of 24’48, finishing ahead of surprise package BMC, Team Sky and Andy Schleck’s Leopard Trek team (all 24’52).

Alberto Contador and his SaxoBank team had an excellent rider to finish in a time of 25’, meaning that he only lost another eight seconds to rival Andy Schleck. Cadel Evans and his BMC team, with their stunning performance, came so close to putting the Australian two-time runner-up in the yellow jersey, which he had worn last year despite a hairline fracture to his elbow. Team Sky’s good performance ensures that Geraint Thomas continues to wear the white jersey for the best young rider, which he wore for four stages last year.


Stage 3 runs 198km from Olonne-sur-Mer, out of the Vendée, crossing the Saint-Nazaire bridge across the Loire River and into Brittany, finishing in Redon. It is likely to be the first stage that really suits the natural sprinters, given that there is little difficulty in the stage, except for the 3.3km long Saint-Nazaire bridge, which can often proved somewhat troublesome on a windy day.

The 15-time Tour de France stage winner, Mark Cavendish (best price 4/5 with Sporting Bet), will be eyeing this stage as his first victory of the 2011 edition. He has shown his form recently by winning two stages of the Giro d’Italia as well as wearing the Maglia Rosa leader’s jersey for a stage. He has the best team behind him and, when on form, he is the best sprinter in the world by a comfortable distance.

In order to prevent him from cruising to victory, his rivals must try and jostle and interrupt the HTC-Highroad train coming into the finish. Between Bernhard Eisel, Tony Martin, Matt Goss and Mark Renshaw, they have the perfect team to control the pace of the peloton and get Cavendish into the perfect position for the sprint and he rarely disappoints.


Amongst the riders hoping to beat Cavendish to the line are Tyler Farrar, Alessandro Petacchi and Andre Greipel.

Tyler Farrar (best price 8/1 with Paddy Power) has had a relatively disappointing year by his standards and only confirmed his place in the Tour with a solid performance in the ZLM Tour in Holland, winning only his fourth stage of the year. However, he was very disappointing in the Dauphine Libere, a well-known warm-up race for the Tour, where he was unable to post a single top five finish on any of the sprint stages.

Alessandro Petacchi (best price 11/1 with Paddy Power) is defending the green points jersey that he won last year, when he won two stages. He performed well in the Giro, winning a stage and coming close to winning one of the uphill sprint finishes, but has admitted that his lack of racing in recent weeks means that he may struggle, although he is targeting this stage.


Andre Greipel (best price 22/1 with Paddy Power) is a former teammate of Mark Cavendish, although they did not share the best relationship. Indeed, they were often involved in heated conflicts, meaning there is no love lost between the two. He has won plenty of sprint finishes in the past, including two stages of the Giro and four stages of the Vuelta a España, including winning the points jersey in that race in 2009. This is his first Tour de France and he will be hoping to start it in style.

Outside of those four riders, the likes of Thor Hushovd, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Denis Galimzyanov and Tom Boonen may fancy their chances. Hushovd is an eight-time stage winner at the Tour de France, although he may prefer to take fewer risks tomorrow as he is defending the yellow jersey and he is likely to support his teammate, Tyler Farrer, rather than go for the win himself.

Tom Boonen is a six-time stage winner in this race, although his last stage win came way back in 2007 when he won the green jersey. He has the pedigree, although his best days are long behind him and he is unlikely to be a serious competitor.

Edvald Boasson Hagen is riding in his second Tour de France and is considered one of the biggest rising talents in cycling. He has two stages wins in the Giro d’Italia to his name and had several decent results in this year’s Dauphine Libere. He is a big powerful sprinter, but questions remain whether Team Sky have the team to support him in a sprint finish against the top names.


Finally, an interesting outsider is the Russian, Denis Galimzyanov. He has been a sensation this season, clinching multiple podium positions and beginning to cement his place alongside the very best sprinters, beating the likes of Tyler Farrar, Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek and John Degenkolb so far this season.

Mark Cavendish will justifiably start the stage as big favourite. He is the undisputed number one sprinter at the moment, and if he is on his game, will be virtually impossible to deny. However, at these odds, it is difficult to see any real value. However, there are several other big names who will be right on his wheel and keen to pounce if there is any sign of weakness. Taking the each way option means that there may be some return even if Cavendish wins as expected.

Bets:

Andre Greipel to win Stage 3 E/W @ 16/1 (Paddy Power)
Denis Galimzyanov to win Stage 3 E/W @ 28/1 (Bet365)
Denis Galimzyanov to beat Jose Rojas Gil @ 9/10 (Bet365)


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Tour de France 2011: Stage 2 Betting

Stage 1 was expected to be a relatively uneventful stage where minimal time was likely to be lost. However, the inadvertent impact of a French spectator changed that in spectacular fashion. With around 10km to go, an Astana rider clipped a spectator on the side of the road and went down, taking a large number of riders with him and blocking the road. Whilst the majority of the leading contenders were ahead of the crash, one man who was caught behind the blockage was three-time champion, Alberto Contador.


Philippe Gilbert proved once again that seemingly anything he wants to win this season, he will win as he was able to ride away from first Fabian Cancellara, then Cadel Evans to win the first stage and take the yellow jersey. However, the major talking point is that Alberto Contador now finds himself 1’20 down on Gilbert, but more importantly, 1’14 down on the likes of Andy Schleck, Ivan Basso, Cadel Evans, Bradley Wiggins and Chris Horner.

Given that he will be expecting to lose further time to the Schlecks in the team time trial in Stage 2, he has a huge task in front of him now. It means that he will almost certainly have to attack in the mountains, which he has not had to do for several years now.


Stage 2 will be a team time trial around Les Essarts in the heart of the Vendée. It is only 23km and completely flat to prevent it having a disproportionate impact on the general classification. Some of the leader favourites will lose some time, but not so much that it will terminally hamper any hopes they may have.

HTC-Highroad will begin the stage as the favourites and showed their TTT credentials when they won the TTT in the Giro d’Italia earlier this year. They have several good team time triallers in Lars Ytting Bak, Bernhard Eisel backing up the excellent time-trialler, Tony Martin. It would be little surprise to see him in yellow come tomorrow evening.

Their major challengers are likely to be Team Garmin Cervelo. With the likes of David Millar, David Zabriskie and Tyler Farrar amongst their ranks, they have a very talented team and will fancy their chances of putting Thor Hushovd into the yellow jersey after the TTT.

Outside of those two clear favourites, the other teams potentially in contention are Radioshack, Team Sky and Team Leopard Trek.

Radioshack will be driven on by the talented quartet of Levi Leipheimer, Andreas Kloden, Chris Horner and Janez Brajkovic and will be looking to better their second placed finish back in the TTT in the Giro.


Team Sky have the former Giro time trial winner Bradley Wiggins leading their team, which also includes the talented young duo of Geraint Thomas and Edvald Boassen Hagen. If Wiggins can protect the weaker members of the team, he has the ability and pedigree to push the team forward for a potential podium place at the minimum.

Finally, Team Leopard Trek will be relying on one of the greatest time-triallers in recent times, Fabian Cancellara, to push their team forward. Combined with Linus Gerdemann, they are a potent duo and the Schlecks will be hoping they can put in a good showing and put additional time into Contador, whose team is relatively weak in this stage.

Two other possible outsiders who may fancy a shot at a top three finish in this stage are BMC and Omega Pharma Lotto. BMC will be looking to build on Cadel Evans’ impressive showing in the opening stage and he is a very good time-trialler, well backed up by the likes of Brent Bookwalter and George Hincapie. They are a long shot, but have been training hard in this discipline with the hopes of targeting this stage in particular.


Finally, Omega Pharma Lotto might fancy an outside shot at a decent showing here. Whilst they have no clear out-and-out time-triallers in their squad, they have a number of good solid riders, such as current leader, Philippe Gilbert, Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Andre Greipel. It will take a monumental effort to pull off a leading time, but they have been training hard and might fancy a shot, however at the odds, there is some value in taking them each way.

Bets:

Team Garmin Cervelo to win @ 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Omega Pharma Lotto to win E/W @ 150/1 (Bet365)


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Haye and Klitschko set for Heavyweight Fight of the Year

After over two years in the making, tomorrow night sees one of the most anticipated fights in many years. David Haye, the brash and arrogant WBA Heavyweight champion, takes on the younger of the two Klitschko brothers, Wladimir, who have dominated the heavyweight division since the retirement of Lennox Lewis, way back in 2004.

David Haye has made it his ambition to unite the heavyweight division ever since moving up from cruiserweight three years ago. His outspoken personality has talked his way into this fight and he has not been afraid in trash-talking his Ukrainian opponent. From T-shirts showing Haye holding the decapitated heads of the Klitschkos to talk of Klitschko being carried out of the arena in an ambulance, he has not been afraid to talk up his chances.


However, inside, he will know that this is the biggest test that he has faced in his ten year professional career. It is not through luck that Wladimir Klitschko has held the IBF and IBO Heavyweight titles since beating Chris Byrd in April 2006. He has defended those titles nine times, winning seven of them via knockout. Wlad is a highly accomplished fighter and deservedly starts the fight as the bookmakers’ favourite.

In a way, there are many similarities between this fight and one of the last great heavyweight fights. Ten years ago, Lennox Lewis took on Mike Tyson at the Pyramid Arena in Memphis, Tennessee. The fight saw the big man – 6’5 reigning champion Lennox Lewis – taking on the smaller, quick and powerful man – the previously almost unstoppable Mike Tyson.

Whilst Mike Tyson was clearly past him prime by this stage, the starting odds with the bookmakers were around 6/4 – virtually the same as the starting odds on David Haye. The fight itself saw Lennox Lewis mechanically using the jab to keep Tyson at bay – indeed, despite his success, Lewis was often accused of having relatively dull fights as a result of his ruthless efficiency in doing enough to win without allowing his opponent a chance.


Many of the same things have been said about Wladimir – his jab is one of his main weapons, which combined with the reach advantage that he will have over Haye will prove troublesome for the British fighter. Another interesting parallel between the two fights is that Lewis’ old trainer, Manny Steward, will be in the corner of Wladimir Klitschko, who he has been training since 2004. It would therefore not be surprising to see the Ukrainian using many of the same tactics that Lewis used.

However, one aspect where Wladimir trumps Lewis is in sheer power. Phil Jackson fought both Lewis and Klitschko and admitted that Wlad has significantly more power in both hands than Lewis had.

David Haye, with his cruiserweight roots, is set to be one of the fastest opponents that Wladimir has ever faced. However, he combines this pace with power, particularly in the right hand. Haye’s best punch is the overhand right, which he will be looking to use to knock his opponent off his stride.

However, Haye has a tendency to lunge forward a bit with the right jab, often lacking power, and there is a suspicion that he could be vulnerable against the right jab of his opponent – a weapon that Klitschko certainly possesses. The other worry for Haye is the left hook of Wladimir – a punch that he rarely uses, but it is the most dangerous punch that either of the two possesses. If Haye is caught lunging forward with the jab or looking for the big punch, he is likely to get caught at some point and his chin will be put to the test.

The other potential concern over David Haye concerns his fitness and stamina. He has only ever had to go the full twelve rounds twice – once was against Nikolay Valuev, where he was hardly forced to fight every minute of every round. He will certainly have to do that if this fight goes all the way.


Indeed, it is questionable whether Valuev would even be close to championship level were it not for his sheer size. Haye eventually only won that fight on a majority decision – he will have to up his game significantly to even stay close to Wladimir.

As well as his impressive professional record, Wladimir also possesses a highly accomplished amateur record. Whilst David Haye is a former silver medalist in the World Championships, Wladimir is a former Olympic gold medalist at Super Heavyweight level in Atlanta 1996. His amateur pedigree shows that he is a very talented boxer, even if he is not the natural fighter that his brother is.


Despite all of the taunts, sometimes quite personal in nature, from Haye, Wladimir has remained relatively composed throughout the hype for the fight. Unsurprisingly really given that Wlad has always been known as the nicer brother and far more mild-mannered than his brother, who you would not mess with unless you were surrounded by your own people (he has been known to brawl in the halls of the Ukrainian parliament against pro-Putin factions within the government).

Whether Wladimir’s relaxed approach to the fight comes from his nature or simply a supreme confidence in his own ability remains to be seen, but come tomorrow night in the ring, the laid-back approach will disappear and Haye will be up against the biggest test of his professional career. This is the fight that will either set the foundations for an epic unification battle with Vitali or show Haye up for the over-confidence fraud than many have suggested.

Personally, I struggle to see how David Haye will be able to deal with the power of Wladimir and the superior height and reach advantage that the Ukrainian possesses. He will have in the back of his mind the fact that if the fight is close, the judges in Germany are likely to favour Klitschko, but if he goes jumping in trying to fulfill his promise to knock out his opponent, he will leave himself open to the big left hook and may find himself on his back in the middle of the German ring.

DW

Tour de France 2011: Stage 1 Betting

Stage 1 of the Tour de France sees the riders head out from Passage du Gois, a causeway linking the Ile de Noirmoutier and Beauvoir sur Mer that is submerged twice a day during high tide, head down the coast as far as Les Sables d-Olonne, before heading inshore, eventually reaching the finish at Mont des Alouettes.

Despite being a predominantly flat stage, there is a slight ramp up at the finish. The final 2km rises at a gradient of around 5%, meaning that it is likely that the natural sprinters are unlikely to fancy the win. Instead, it leaves it open for some of the puncheurs, who might fancy the opportunity to become the first rider to wear the Maillot Jeune in the 2011 Tour de France.


Philippe Gilbert starts as a big favourite with the bookmakers (biggest price 6/4 with Paddy Power) and rightly so. Coming off a fantastic year thus far, having become only the second man in history to win all three of the Ardennes classics, as well as winning the Tour of Belgium and the Belgian national road race and a third place finish in the Milan-San Remo race. He has also won stages of both the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a Espana before, so a stage of Le Grand Tour is the only accolade missing from his collection.

Looking beyond the Belgian, Thor Hushovd is fancied at a best price of 13/2 with numerous bookmakers. One of the few sprinters who might fancy a shot at the win, he will be eyeing a strong finish to take an early lead over Mark Cavendish in the race for the points jersey, but it will be tough for him. If he can stay with any breakaway at the end, his sprinting ability may give him the advantage, but he may struggle to stay with them.

The other sprinter to keep an eye on is Team Sky’s Edvald Boassen Hagen (best price 22/1 with Victor Chandler). He has been a doubt for the race after battling a bout of shingles, but he is set to start, suggesting he is fit once again. A big, powerful sprinter, he has the ability to hang in there with the breakaway and if it comes down to a sprint, he will be right in amongst the leaders.


One rider in particular to watch is Astana’s Kazakh rider, Alexandre Vinokourov. He has stated that his goal for the race is to wear the yellow jersey at some stage and the finish to this stage would appear to suit him perfectly. He has won classics before and knows how to win, so he will fancy his chance to take a win here.

Two other riders who might fancy giving the French fans something to cheer on the day are Thomas Voeckler and Jerome Pineau. Thomas Voeckler has good memories of this area after winning the French national road race there last year, whilst Jerome Pineau finished second to Alejandro Valverde in a very similar first stage three years ago in 2008.


Finally, the Slovenian rider, Grega Bole, is a rider who might fancy his chances of a good finish here. He is not really a natural sprinter, but is not exactly a natural climber, but possesses some of the talent of each, so may fancy a big push in the final metres of the stage to claim a first ever stage win.

In conclusion, Philippe Gilbert is the big favourite and is likely to win the stage and take the yellow jersey. However, at odds of 6/4, it is hardly an appealing proposition. Instead, Boassen Hagen, Vinokourov, Voeckler, Pineau and Bole are potential shouts at slightly larger odds. As a slight safety net if Gilbert were to win, each of these could be taken each way at 1/4 odds for the first three places.

Bets:

Alexandre Vinokourov to win Stage 1 @ 20/1 (Stan James)
Edvald Boassen Hagen to win Stage 1 @ 22/1 (Victor Chandler)
Thomas Voeckler to win Stage 1 @ 25/1 (SportingBet)
Grega Bole to win Stage 1 @ 80/1 (Blue Square)
Jerome Pineau to win Stage 1 @ 100/1 (Bet365)